Member Info for Slift

Not really, I still have all my holdings here, considering I bought in the 90s..

But pipeline is a problem for me for 2021. Will see how Q2 goes for Petrofac.

Can see this slip further on bad pipeline and outlook.

Not as much as some would want, but holding shouldn't be painful.

From a previous update by HUR:

"Building on the initial results of the technical review announced in September 2020, a remapping exercise has been completed to more accurately define the complex reservoir horizons now recognised in Lancaster. The reservoir simulation model has also been extensively rebuilt, utilising this remapping work, recognising the contribution from sandstones onlapping fractured basement, and using additional historical and regional data. This simulation model has been used to assess various near-term development options which are currently under technical and commercial review."

^ This could be why ERC's estimates lower?

"While no firm decisions have been taken, the Company has focussed on the location, operations planning and execution in 2021 of a new production well in the central "attic" high of the Lancaster field, by re-entering and side-tracking the existing 205/21a-7z well. This could add meaningfully to the production capacity from the existing 205/21a-6 well, accelerate production of existing reserves, and, depending on oil price, materially improve near-term cashflow generation. Development costs are currently estimated at c.$60 million. Subject to a sanction decision early in the first quarter of 2021 and securing a suitable rig and equipment, first production from this well should be possible by late 2021."

^ This is the sidetrack targetting victory at then "central attic"

"Implementing a water injection programme is important to provide pressure support generally, but also to sweep oil towards the producing wells in the centre of the field, which could materially improve recovery from Lancaster. Preliminary evaluation has identified that injection into the northwest of the field could provide the greatest benefit. Ongoing assessment of this water injection option is focussed on finalising the well location, subsurface and FPSO modifications, operations planning and execution in 2022. Costs are currently estimated at c.$75 million."

^ When they say "sweep", they mean displace the oil at depths of victory sandstone with water, and hence moving oil towards the upper "central attic" of the victory layer where the wells are.

Captain,

Sure the RPS CPR got the FB numbers wrong. But surely they couldn't have got the sandstone numbers wrong (very conventional)..

RPS CPR states 394mmboe STOIIP in Rona (29mmboe) and Victory (204mmboe) for Lancaster.
We know Well 6 has it's toe in Rona, and likely well 7z has drawn some of the Rona
At P50, that's 6.5mmboe, and majority of this already produced (most likely).

Now with Victory sandstones, at P50, that'll be 45.9mmboe - This is what HUR meant by "significant sandstone oil" (refer back to interim presentation).
I'm not sure if either well 6 and well 7z had access to this. But I could be wrong. I mean, if well 7 had access to victory, likely well 7z and 6 also had access?
Either way, the ERC CPR attributes 37.9mmboe 2C resources here. I'm going to say all of it is Victory sandstones based on well 8 being in the attic of lancaster (Victory layer) and also the injection well providing pressure support for this.

With regards to Basement, I think it's more that there could be oil there... but non-recoverable or has a very low recovery factor for it to be commercial.

No idea what's gone on with Lincoln and Warwick.

Note ERC summary has only provided us with 2C resources for the FWP (Lancaster) and generic 2C resources for Lincoln and Warwick, as opposed to STOIIP numbers and recovery factors.
Will be interesting to read the full report.

Capn my man,

The ERC CPR takes into account an EVEN SHALLOWER OWC than the one that HUR assumed for technical review.
ERC have used HUR's data, but they make their own assumptions to HUR.

Regarding Halifax, HUR most probably ommited providing some data to ERC, or provided data and said they were very rough data.
I think prospective resources should have been given for Halifax, even if they were unable to determine 2C resources at Halifax from the drills.

As for sandstones.. oil from sandstones are likely included in the estimates provided by ERC.

As for production data.. HUR are being sneaky.
They are controlling production or should i say.. "reservoir management" and keeping watercut constant at 25% - Easily done by reducing production by simply reducing water coning.

Also, i'm suspecting that the ESP has a maximum/optimal production rate of around 16k barrels/day. If not ESP, more "reservoir management" then. I do wonder what the "well intervention" was for well 6, maybe ESP related?

At current status of well 6 (11.6k bopd @ 28% watercut = 16k barrels/day). 28% watercut is bad news in terms of "reservoir management". Wouldn't be surprised if they reduce production here again and then combine it with well 7. Depending on the length of testing, Q2 watercut could be 30-40%.

I also wonder what they are looking to do with well 7. Watercut in well 7 is surely 70-80%+ now and isn't much use for production. Maybe they are playing around with reservoir pressures?, or trying to hide watercut performance data for well 6? or confirming OWC by comparing the two wells? or possibly even getting more reservoir modelling data for repurposing the well for FWP? Who knows.

One person, multiple users? I think so.

Elementary:
"the most undervalued and currently strangely oversold share
"ridiculously lowball MC here, upside potential by far outweighs any downside risks"
"any dilution here makes zero sense, and can be fully avoided by any competent executive team in place"
"HUR production along with updates on rapidly rising company net-cash should also land here pretty soon"

TopCat81:
"HUR’s massive undervaluation as compared to it’s peers is very evident at the moment"
"game changing and extremely positive for HUR shareholders while market cap here remains noticeably much under fair value"
"always worth noting that HUR’s cash in bank along with now rapidly/significantly rising net-cash "

DifferentAngle:
"HUR’s ultra ultra low market cap today makes absolutely no sense"
"HUR is clearly very much undervalued here as compared to peers"
"Significantly increasing net-cash for HUR at perfect timing"

GroundHogDay1:
"potentially make multiples from these way oversold/undervalued levels here overtime, DYOR."
" the currently very much suppressed company market capitalisation going forward."
"way too oversold HUR here has now become the U.K. stock market bargain of the 21st century, try not to miss this 2021 U.K. market’s potential Multibagger"
"H2 looking even more bullish for Oil, and HUR net-cash is continuing to increase significantly"

RagingBull2:
"company is clearly much undervalued regardless of HUR BOD negative noises"
"HUR should not be trading at these crazy bargain basement levels!"
"this year while company net-cash is significantly increasing as a result of higher Oil prices"

LuckyDog1:
"however now that HUR BOD strangely seem adamant on deliberately destroy poor shareholder value for apparently unknown reasons"
"HUR’s massive undervaluation"
"At these crazy lowball valuations, HUR with it’s assets/licenses/vast WoS acreage, rising net-cash"

morganna1:
"HUR joke of a market cap is less than £50 Million today!"
"at today’s extremely low market capitalisation? It would be crazy and can only be proposed by a destructive/crazy BOD"
"net-cash continuing to notably increase while Brent outlook remains very bullish"

You're welcome everyone.
And ofcourse, DYOR and don't ever listen to this board.

The summary of CPR is rather interesting.

In September 2020, HUR estimated that the OWC is at 1330m TVDSS for Lancaster.
However, looking at ERCs summary, it seems like ERC have estimated the OWC to be even shallower.
Possibly even 1250m or less TVDSS for Lancaster.

(Well 6 is at 1211m TVDSS.)

The EVEN higher OWC estimate has also affected Lincoln and Warwicks' resources.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PN0rf0W0wFA

0.5-1% reduction per day day is a big reduction in shorts.
The share price has not reflected the reduction or short squeeze that should have occured.
Shorters really got away with this one.

I want to say that this is mainly due to lack of institutional investors here. And there will be little investing here until SFO matters resolved, but I can imagine a lot are sitting on sidelines to jump in here once the company draws a line or is not charged at the end of this fiasco.

In the meantime, backlog and pipeline is more important for PFC.
My estimates suggest about average/in line with expectations.
No huge orders yet, but backlog has somewhat stabilised at a good healthy level (or at least for Q1 2021).

Real average is -15p.
I.e. free carry.

Bidds,

Yes ofcourse I know that. Shh!
3.6p was the share price value of HUR on the date of accounting ;)

But ofcourse hasiba doesn't pick that up.

Okay fine!
You got me!

Double your holding on your calculation and buy more please!

Hasiba,

No matter what you say, i'm not deluded :)
I'm 100% certain CA's average is approx. 3.46p/share currently.

I'll be the "absolute idiot" who can use maths to work out averages sure :)
But hey, you keep reading 2017 articles and buy more here. Follow CA like a sheep and keep adding hasiba.

Rather be an idiot than be a sheep.
You say i'm a failed investor yet you don't post your percentage gain here lol.

All the best to you.

Lol hasiba..
You really are making yourself look like a fool by posting articles from 2017, but don't know the FACTS whereby Crystal Amber took profits.

Here are the facts:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HUR/holdings-in-company-x17fwzscpj8tb4o.html
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HUR/holdings-in-company-b1izsi4v7zd1oj9.html
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HUR/holdings-in-company-gi1y9k130xl8wyq.html
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HUR/holdings-in-company-ck2e604leb3ba7l.html
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HUR/holdings-in-company-x43wk69dwowmfjm.html
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HUR/holdings-in-company-2gcerb4uoewlb75.html
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HUR/holdings-in-company-ui5eu62xx7qpxg6.html

I think that's enough mockery for one day.

But following recent buys, CA's average is approx. 3.46p.

lol..

far lower than CA? CA's average is prob like 5-6p after recent buys.
But for arguement sake, let's say CA's average is 9p.
With 14.32% of shares (285m shares), and current share price of 2.5p.. CA is at -£18.5m.

But CA is also up £43m in the past.
So overall, if CA sell at 2.5p, they are up £24.5m.

Trolls time is truly over?
Well i'm sure ramp time will be over after significant dilution.

"and I trust their investments strategy rather than listening to the drivels posted here by a few clueless posters...
Get a grip guys
HUR Risk/Rewards has improved dramatically with CA solid support..."

Sure thing. So what's your gain % like here?

"In addition, the Convertible Bonds will benefit from certainother provisions dealing with change of control and delisting events."

Where is the evidence to falsify it?

HUR can redeem CB notes at par after August 2020.

With regards to purchasing off the market, there is a covenant that prevents HUR, directors, or any party related to HUR from buying it.

There are two things HUR can do (which I believe CA will be looking at both should they force the BOD out):
1. Restructure current bond debt
2. Secure new debt (new investors, banks etc.) to pay off CB and fund a more attractive FWP.

But all in all, still a fk up for missing weather window and not getting FWP sanctioned this year.
HUR will be in an even more uncertain position next year, with even less chance of securing debt due to liabilities of Aoka Mizu, diminishing reserves and decreasing cashflow.