Member Info for Slift

A review of assets:

Cash in hand: c. $140m
Bond debt: $230m
Value of assets based on reserves and resources (no FWP): c. $153m

Therefore, value attributable to share price, IMO: c. $63m = £46m = c. 2.3p
Can see this go down further to 2.3p until more oil is offloaded for free cash.

The only way I can see value here is if a lot of the 81.9mmboe resources is converted to reserves for production.
I.e. a new forward work programme is required, at a higher cost.

I think the BOD should do everything they can for both bondholders and shareholders to come up with a FWP that will provide at least 30mmboe 2P reserves for the next 7 years (Aoka Mizu second option + third option).
This would obviously cost a lot more than current FWP, but will be rewarding for new shareholderes and bondholders.

30mmboe over 7 years would be c. 11-12k bopd for 7 years constantly. We all know how much money HUR produces from production currently.. so should be able to pay back further debt and provide shareholder returns too.

However, for a 30mmboe forward work programme would require significant funding, involving multiple wells. I think maybe $300-400m+, just for Lancaster.

PlantedBHA?

What's the chancellor going to do?
Pay you 90% rather than the 80% furlough payment?

No doubt net debt has been reduced further following Q1 order wins too.

Anyone else looking forward to results now? ;)

Pokerchips,

Definitely, Petrofac had reduced net debt by $156m between Nov 2020 and Dec 2020.
No-one saw that coming lol

"$700m facility is great, and 1.3b total facility is great restructure!"
Total $1b facility* I think

Yes sorry,
*little experience in gas development

SNS is a whole lot different to Africa.
There's already existing gas pipelines in the North Sea.

Nice one.

This was confirmed by S&P in the credit rating withdrawal.
But the amount was unknown.

$700m facility is great, and 1.3b total facility is great restructure!

Good job Petrofac management.

No problem.

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/4215/9963/9083/Tullow_Oil_PLC_-_2020_Half_Year_Results.pdf

References in page 7 and 26.

Thanks ca34

I think depending on orders won, EBITDA may drop in 2022.
But UAE suspension will not have an affect on EBITDA in 2021.

EBITDA for 2021 forecasted to be c. $400m, but we'll see how Petrofac does in the remaining quarters.
So far, Q1 has been in line with expectations, with c. $500m orders won.

At HY results in 2020.

The problem will Tullow is they are trying to explore and develop fields with similar characteristic to Ghana.
I think Comoros was mainly gas, similar to Tweneboa in TEN. I think there was also some oil prospects, but Tullow has no experience in gas development.

That along with reduced activity due to COVID and 2020 struggle made Tullow exit Comoros.
In my opinion, that is.

Probably not updated or Tullow are currently in the process of selling their Comoros office etc.
Maybe.

But according to the annual report, no longer any licenses in Comoros. This was also confirmed at the CMD.
Prior to relinquishment, I believe Tullow's licenses had an estimated 7b barrels of prospective resources in Comoros.

Comoros licenses were relinquished last year.

ca34,
Can you provide link? I'd be interested in reading it.

Estimated cash after last offload: $140m
Estimated cost of FWP: $135m
Bond debt: $230m
Liquidity required to be going concern: c. $50m

Estimated cash accounting for liquidity: $90m
Estimated cost to restructure or extend bond?: I'm going to say c. $50m?
FWP: $135m

Estimated cash raise required as of last offload: c. $95m (dilution to raise)

3.2m resources estimated from developing Well 8.

$60m to drill.
Assuming $40 breakeven and average of $60 barrel oil price, 3.2m barrels of oil production equates to $64m

Can someone please tell me what the point is of drilling Well 8 without drilling a water injector at the same time?

Why do you need a site visit for a CPR?

CPR is based on data provided by HUR.

y11-shx,

Hahaha. Guess what, even HMI is more than HUR now. But hope you do enjoy the "opportunity to trade" here, Mr 20p.
But keep waiting and hope you get your price of 85p for Petrofac.

Anyone seen the "sophisticated investor trader"; Dickbat?

Anyone seen y11-shx with their 20p projections?

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/application/files/1316/1777/4591/ERCE_Hurricane_CPR_letter_client_release.pdf