Member Info for Slift

Edwards stake sold to D&A Holdings?

Sorry to hear daltry.
At least you're free now from this disaster..

The update is even worse than that I had in mind.
There is no future here for HUR anymore. Will always be a penny stock if it continues to trade.

Easy to make back at least some of the money back in volatile environments such as now.
Some stocks are still cheap thanks to COVID.

The desperation...

Even worse than I expected... And downgrade from HUR's estimates now that sandstones and other assets are included...

Total 2C resource: 81.9mmboe
Total 2P reserves: 7.1mmboe

Reserves and resources DOWNGRADED....
Halifax NO RESOURCES...
Significant dilution...

No surprised there...
Rip.

In total, $7529.7m worth of contracts were awarded to Petrofac. That's Iraq, Saudi Arabia and UAE.

Should Petrofac be charged in normal circumstances (non-covid times), it's unreasonable to fine more than 10% (which is probably the higher end of profit margin for these jobs) + SFO costs + Bribe payments.

So at most, $750m + $80m + SFO costs.

But it's not reasonable to charge Petrofac that much as it causes insolvency issues and jobs could be at risk. This is not in the public interest.
Sure, it could have been possible had SFO acted in 2017, but we're in COVID times and Petrofac's backlog and finances are dwindling like all other companies.

I've pencilled in a maximum of $400m in current situation, paid over a number of years.
But whatever the fine, it will be reasonable over a number of years and should not entirely hurt Petrofac's finances.

Would have been about 9.7%.
Don't forget, that transaction also had CGT of c. $180-200m+

So here's the maths for you:
Sale: $900m for 21.57%
CGT: $180-200m+
Total proceeds: c. $700m for 21.57%

Tullow would have retained c. 9.7% stake.
Cost to develop 9.7% stake: $1260m

For ease of calculation, let's assume that Tullow sold entire stake back in 2017:
Sale: Approx. $1390m pro-rata basis
CGT: c. $300m
Total proceeds: $1090m

2020 sale:
Sale: $575m
CGT: $0 on sale and $0 on future contingent payments
Contingent payments on 28.3% stake: 1.25% if oil above $62, 2.5% if oil above $70

The production license is for approx. 23 years and the development was for 257m barrels (Tullows stake of 28.3%).
Of which, the risked recoverable estimate was 128.9m barrels (2C).
Depending on how much of the resource is developed into reserves, oil price, and depending on whether production license is to be extended, Tullow should be able to receive between $300-400m+ as contingent payments.

Yes, it's probably like $100-150m less than 2017 deal, but there was no requirement for Tullow to finance $1260m to develop 9.7% stake. Let's also not forget about the CAPEX reimbursement and other small benefits to Tullow from the 2020 deal.

Do the maths.

Tullow didn't have time to wait on Uganda.
FID is imminent. Tullow would not have been able to get sale of Uganda through this year.

Do some maths on Uganda and you'll see that it's more than a fair deal, even considering the deal was struck at a $30 oil price environment.

Jubileey,

Tullow got a fair price for Uganda.

This is what you replied in response to me suggesting Tullow should buy Oxy's Ghana stake for $500m.
"We need to pay back a big chunk of the debt next year. Were would we then find the financing to make an acquition and pay back the debt? From you?"

So tell me, if Tullow had kept Uganda, how will Tullow finance $4.5b to develop it?
You really are deluded.

A significant order win ($300-500m) will put this company in a great position for both results and early recovery.
Probably unlikely in the next couple weeks, but never impossible.

But nonetheless, all eyes on the future awards to Petrofac to continue building backlog.
Great effort by current management in keeping this company in a good financial position through COVID and SFO ordeal. It will only get better.

GLA.

Jubileey,

Sure acknowledge that it's a likely event. But you also hope for it:
"Jubileey
The US killed their main scientist in a covert operation and missiled down Solemaini. What else would you expect? Hopefully a war. Tanks and planes consume oil and will stop Iran's oil producing capacities. Hopefully with Saudi's oil production also getting hurt!"

I do not regret selling lower, as I do not see the potential I once saw here following the sale of EG/Gabon assets.
I would have bought back in here had the following happened:
- Sale cancelled
- Strike of oil in Suriname
But neither happened. I will sit on the sidelines until YE21 to see progress with Tullow's current business plan. I'll be following this company.

I don't think you own this board to tell people to go away, sorry mate.

Okay, you don't have to tell me.

But i'll assume it's significantly higher than current share price if you have to resort to wars to make a lil bit of money.
The last thing people think about in a warzone is money. You're simply selfish.

"daytrader and are moron that's your problem not mine."
Well i'll at least admit that maybe I did sell out 5-10p earlier. But I do not have any problems about it whatsoever. Profit is profit for me.

Smokers,
I'm ready to be disappointed (again) by the next RNS.
Some kind of a miracle needs to happen here for this to go beyond 5-6p.

Jubileey,

You're deluded. Again with the wars so you can make a little bit of money..
What is your average here?

Cheapsharesboy,

It's on S&P Globals ratings. You need to register for it.
https://www.standardandpoors.com/en_US/web/guest/home

The credit rating and the rating notes provided by S&P Global is more positive than I expected. The credit ratings for LT local currency and foreign currency has been withdrawn by S&P Global as they have been informed by Petrofac that the company no longer has "outstanding public debt". I read this as the $1000m RCF facility being paid off or refinanced.

Worth a read if you're interested.

"so this looks like a decent punt to me."

So why do you care what i post?
Everyone is entitled to their opinion!

You don't seem very confident with your claims though, maybe that's why you're targetting me?
I have no agenda, and ofcourse nothing I say will make the price move. So why are you worried?

wow, stalking now are we?

You seem hurt by the facts and opinions I post here.
Why? Is it because you have an agenda? Is it because you're gambling?

I'd rather be the board clown than be a spread-betting gambler! hahaha