Member Info for Slift

Lol thanks Keepwell, as if I'd pay that much attention to this company!!

What an opportunity @ Petrofac.

Unlike here.

My whole £50 "wasted" on Petrofac

This site projects results to be tomorrow.
https://m.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HURRICANE-ENERGY-PLC-15724803/calendar/

y11-shx,

"Big up day tomorrow. Remember investing in stock at this level isn’t a gamble!"

Where was the "big up day"? Closed down you gambler.

1.4b revenue, made a loss.

Cashflow is more important, but Tullow is more about the turnaround.
I believe Petrofac has more growth potential than Tullow currently.
Both great investments.

"Why you think s big up tomorrow"
Isn't it obvious? It's a gamble.

Facts are from links. Including quotations.

lol what you been smoking today?

I have never claimed anything! I could care less how HUR performs next week, or the week after, or next year.
Everything is my own opinion.

"could kitchen sink the results"
How exactly? lol

The only risk I see from YE20 results is ability to refinance debt and hence a possibility of a going concern statement following the ADNOC suspension.
But with the COVID loan and recent other contracts won worth $500m, I strongly believe that the company is a going concern for at least another year at current prospects, liquidity and backlog.

IT'S A SUNDAY :)

It's not poo posting when it's facts! I even posted links!!

*Interesting to see how Tullow plan make it attractive..
We'll know by end of H1/21.

"We still have 640mmboe in 2C resources"
c. 500m barrels oil 2C resources

Of which 170m is Kenya.
For Tullow's 50% stake, Kenya would cost c. $3b+ to develop excluding the pipeline.
The pipeline and infrastructure (including roads, etc.) was reported to cost $3b ($1.5b for 50% stake).

Not the most attractive project, imo.
Interesting to see how Tullow plan to

Beverley Smith: https://www.linkedin.com/in/beverley-smith/
"I am passionate about applying my expertise in strategic leadership, risk management and corporate governance to support organisations as an Non-Executive Director."

- LOL at her bio "as an Non-Executive Director". Someone please give her grammar lessons! I vote for mjg786!
She has also changed her bio since early in 2020. I believe it read something along the lines of "following a 5 year sabbatical, I am now passionate to apply my experiences in a director role"

Anthony Maris: https://www.linkedin.com/in/antony-maris-79830040/
Apparently, he is still a "CEO Designate" lol

Gilljoe,

Yes, the business has been downsized. But personally, I feel like what we've got now for PFC is a good sized business to handle a few $1-2b+ jobs.
Anymore downsizing could really affect Petrofac's ability to handle big projects. At the sametime, backlog needs to be rebuilt to keep the current levels of employees. I wouldn't be surprised if majority are on furlough or on leave currently.
Your reasoning for pulling out of Iraq project is valid.

For the current size of business (10-11k employees), having a backlog of c. $8-9b+ consistently each year would keep everyone busy (consistently), imo. Hoping Petrofac are able to finish 2021 with $5.5b+ backlog. My estimates suggest that to achieve that, Petrofac would need to win at least $2.1b worth of projects between now and end of year. Very doable.

Agree with your comments on the ADNOC project losses. Although, not all ADNOC projects have been awarded yet. Depending on if and when ADNOC does lift suspension, Petrofac may be able to still secure one or two of those projects. Just a shame really, the cost for bidding for these projects (which would have been over a couple years) MAY fruition to nothing.

@Ctw2014,
No, I think Petrofac would be barred even as subcontractor to the partners. Unfortunately, that's how the industry works and it's up to ADNOC to provide and influence their "preferred" subcontractors for the project. Petrofac having been suspended, means that even the partners would not be able to subcontract to Petrofac.

Backlog over the years..

YE15: $17.6b
YE16: $11.7b
YE17: $10.2b
YE18: $9.6b
YE19: $7.4b
YE20: Estimated $5b..

All due to lack of investment in the oil and gas industry, COVID (2020), SFO, and reputational damage.

Backlog is at 28% of what it used to be in 2015, a mere 5 years ago.

Kind of unthinkable for backlog to go down further without significant downsizing and loss of jobs. HY/FY 2021 will really provide the direction Petrofac is going.
They really need to land some awards.

"may well be prepared to say see you in court & take their chances"
I'm not too sure.. but we'll see.
Don't forget that these bribes and securing orders have benefited PFC. PFC is somewhat liable to those that PFC have indirectly taken advantage of.

But at the same time, the company is completely different than what i used to be. Different management, different ways of operating (no agents, etc.), new and updated corporate policy etc.
So the losses of projects due to this case (UAE) is unjustified as the company has changed it's ways of operating.

A matter of debate really - Should PFC be culpable as a company for it's history? Should PFC be culpable as the company has benefied from the bribes in the past? Should PFC be culpable for ex-employees and management? Should PFC be culpable despite co-operation with SFO in the investigation? etc.

A DPA will take into account all of this, and it is simply the best way to resolve the issue.

for a DPA*

As it stands, I estimate that Petrofac can afford to pay c. $400-500m and still be a going concern.
But I think they need a bigger backlog before any fine though. A decreasing backlog decreases amount PFC are able to pay - which would then result in cash raises.

But the settlement will be via DPA. PFC meets all requirements by SFO to meet a DPA.
But I also suspect the fine will be significantly reduced due to COVID and solvency reasons.
It's not in SFO's interest or the public interest to make PFC bankrupt or insolvent.
If something like that does happen, it'll be a significant case where SFO are blamed for the length of investigation etc. causing over 11k job losses.

In 2017, 2018, 2019 and even 2020, PFC had liquidity to settle any fines above $500m. In 2021, following COVID, ADNOC losses and decreasing backlog, liquidity is becoming an issue. So should be very interesting how SFO matters develop/resolve.

I'm pretty confident that anyone that does make an investment here, will be very well rewarded.
There may be further developments in the SFO case or further reduction in backlog whereby the share price goes down further. But i'm certain this company will not go to 0.

It's just a shame that Harvest didn't report cash figures in January.

At a guess, i'd assume cash figure has been reduced to maybe $2m AUD, with $1m+ AUD receivables.
Q1 and Q2 are cash burn months too. If Harvest exceeds sales and ends 2021 with $4-5m AUD cash, that'll be an extremely good result.

I for one, am not too optimistic for Q1 results.