RE: Armchair Trader24 Mar 2021 18:54
The armchair trader comments: "Given the detail in its December trading update, there shouldn’t be any nasty surprises in the April results either."
I've done some analysis, and whilst I agree with the comment that FY20 results won't have nasty surprises, I'm not too optimistic about current trading prospects and outlook for FY21. But, how much of it is priced in following ADNOC awards, I wonder?
My estimates for Petrofac's trading at YE20 (Dec 20):
Backlog: $5b
Net debt: Approx. $320m
Liquidity: Approx. $0.9 - 1.0b
My estimates for current trading prospects (March 21) - based on $500m order intake:
Backlog: $4.7b-4.8b
Net debt: $300-350m+
Liquidity: $1.2 - 1.3b
On a worse case scenario, net debt could be above $400m.
Petrofac really needs to start securing some big orders to offset ones that they have recently lost (ADNOC).
A $1b+ order between now and June would really help this company out in the first half of the year.
With oil prices now somewhat stabilised and outlook beginning to look positive (and with the help of Gov fossil fuel transformation incentives reported today), Petrofac will hopefully secure some orders in the next couple months.