Member Info for skittish

Indeed John117 - the news this Winter can only get worse, and terrible as it may seem that will benefit NCYT. Suspect that only in March/April will things start to get better.

And testing is still in short supply - I know of a midwife, this week, colleague tested positive - she now has to self isolate for two weeks. Can she get a test? No. Because she shows no symptoms - and therefore cannot return to work.

Whole thing is a shambles - but NCYT is doing things right and is at the heart of the storm.

11.70 in France = 1054p

All morning the price has wavered - heading up on strong buying, heading down on strong selling.

Now the price is headed up on strong selling - prepare for a major move North.

Lots of selling but the price continues to move up - 1000p today?

The neat wedge pattern that has formed recently is due come to a conclusion by the end of this month, with the recent two month upper falling trend line crossing the rising trend line evident since the April 2020 low.

Question is which way will it break - up or down?

Recent results from online sellers suggest it should certainly be upwards in the case of BWNG.

Watch this space, but recent upwards breaks have tended to be moderately explosive.

If the share price were to motor over the next few months then above 80p we will be breaking out of a 3 year downtrend, above around 135p breaking out of a 6 year downtrend.

Lots of possibility here if the transformation of the business progresses and there is a solid return to profitability, and not all based on the financial services division.

We shall find out which way things are going within the next couple of weeks.

Official price is well out of step with what is actually being paid now.

Still being held by the look of things - so someone is still loading up, as best they can.

Can't see a bid succeeding due to the Alliance family dominance, but maybe someone ultimately wants to seek to influence the overall direction of the company and sees now as a good time to build a decent sized stake.

Schroders now have a larger shareholding than Nigel Alliance!

Interesting game play in addition to the obvious attractions of a potential recovery stock.

They were 160p in January 2020.

Standard Life Aberdeen have gone from 7.13% to 10.39% - big vote of confidence there!

On 17-9-20 Aegon declared a 3.02% position.

On 11-9-20 Blackrock declared that they had increased to 5.03%

All these followed on from the interim results and the July Tencent agreement.

Current shareholdings from the last AR and subsequent RNS's appear to be as follows:-

Lord Alliance.....................................................33.82%
Nigel Alliance....................................................11.02%
Schroders..........................................................12.03%
UBS London........................................................8.82%
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management.......5.35%
Norges Bank........................................................3.01%

Total...................................................................74.05%

Up to 18-9-20 Schroders increased by almost exactly the amount Norges decreased, subsequently they have both increased, although Norges only slightly.

Do Shroders see just a bargain share or is it stake building with a purpose?

Contrast with 14-8-2020

Lord Alliance.....................................................33.82%
Nigel Alliance....................................................11.02%
Schroders..........................................................10.07%
UBS London........................................................8.82%
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management.......5.35%
Norges Bank........................................................4.04%

Total...................................................................73.12%

Luckily for us BWNG are already filling the online space.....

The Times 2 October 2020 -

"H&M closing shops as buyers go online

H&M will pull down the shutters on 250 stores around the world next year after Covid-19 accelerated the shift of clothes shopping online.

As “more and more” customers shop digitally, Ms Helmersson said they want stores and websites to “interact and strengthen each other”.

H&M is spending more on its online presence and “accelerating store consolidation”."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2020-10-02/business/h-amp-m-closing-shops-as-buyers-go-online-j3k5vtgk6

Fantastic - firing on all cylinders - debt falling fast.

There is no resolution presented at the forthcoming AGM to give the power to buy back shares, therefore the directors will be unable to do such until an appropriate resolution is passed an any forthcoming GM.

We are not privy to the newcomers' plans, and now that their initial objective has been secured by the boarding party ie seats on the board, Dana appears to have gone quiet, at least at the moment.

I'm sure more will be revealed once the appointments have been made, whether it be pre or post AGM.

There does appear however to be a plan, whatever it may be.

It is noticeable however that the boarding party appears only to have become interested in PRIM once it started to become clear that the GGP holding had a significant value, and that the share price had failed to take account of that.

The GGP holding is effectively cash (and may indeed be actual cash now - presently unclear), so the boarding party could be accused, possibly, of just being opportunistic.

On the other hand £5M+ cash (plus other unrealised assets of possibly equivalent value) could come in mightily handy if you were planning a takeover of an unlisted entity and looking for a listed vehicle with which to achieve that objective.

The boarding party does however appear serious having built up a 26%+ stake, which can be used to block any special resolutions and, in reality when combined with a majority on the board gives them effective control of the day to day running of the company.

And they've had to spend only around £1M to achieve that. Bargain.

Awaiting news with interest, whenever it arrives.

Dana hints at various things in various places.

1. There will be an overall reduction in directors salaries - these accounted for over half of the annual running costs of around £600k - so that and other economies should feed through straight to the bottom line.

2. PRIM have sold some, and maybe all, of their remaining stake in GGP, possibly at values somewhere near the high, so the company could be cashed up with somewhere in the region of £5M+ in the bank - useful if considering a strategic acquisition.

3. In the interims the company suggested a share buy back of up to 10% - there is no authority for this in the present AGM resolutions - but if the company is cash rich and undervalued would make sense.

4. There is no point in the "takeover" if it is just going to be business as before - the "movers and shakers" have built up around 25% shareholding here, so don't need big salaries to get their rewards.

5. This suggests some corporate action in the offing, on a perhaps more aggressive scale than previously.

6. All the attention has been on the GGP holding, but maybe more is going on in the background?

7. I'm disappointed by the recent fall - but could easily be reversed over a day or two - or even an hour or two given the "right" news.

Busy Bee.

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/HDEOqzFE1UMniLMdNznxOXZ8X4Y/appointments

Don't ask me what it all means, however.

The next GM needs to be called by 30-9-2020 (my error in earlier post) to be held by 27-10-2020.

No doubt they're trying to gauge how much support they'll get for resolution 3 at the AGM on 14-10-2020.

Surprised at the lack of interest here.

Plenty of targets out there for BWNG to consider if it wants to expand its brands - some well known names.

Sunday Times today -

"High street tycoon Philip Day has put his Pea****s and Edinburgh Woollen Mill (EWM) chains up for sale.

Day has appointed the advisory firm FRP to sound out potential buyers for the two retail chains, which employ about 7,000 people and trade from more than 900 outlets. FRP asked for offers by last Friday. Day triggered the sale process this month after an unsolicited approach for Pea****s, which is more likely to be offloaded than EWM.

Day amassed a £1.14bn fortune by buying up distressed retail brands and integrating them into his empire. Covid has been painful for Day, depriving EWM of the over-60s and foreign tourists on which it depends. Pea****s has reopened fewer than half of its 550 shops.

Separately, Day is also marketing his Jaeger, Austin Reed and Jacques Vert fashion labels to suitors.

During lockdown, Day, who now lives in Switzerland, furloughed almost all of his 24,000 staff. Pea****s racked up tens of millions of pounds in unpaid debts to landlords and suppliers, which would be inherited by any buyer."

Interesting that the Notice of AGM to be held on 12-10 and the resolutions to be voted on do not make reference to the requisition of a GM received by them on 9th September.

So it looks like another GM will be called before 28-10 to be held on or before 25-11 to vote on the replacement of directors.

No doubt the present board are gathering the wagons round and will attempt to make a defence - depends who their supporters are and whether they intend to make some amends in terms of costs etc.

But RL now has 18%+, and a few of the known supporters 3%+, so that may be a big hurdle to overcome.

Likely to be an eventful month ahead.

Now that the gangplanks are at the ready and the boarding crew all tooled up they are unlikely to give up now - if anything they'll redouble their efforts.

Should be an interesting ride whilst all this plays out - made a bit more exciting by the goings on at GGP.

Someone has been busy....

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/HDEOqzFE1UMniLMdNznxOXZ8X4Y/appointments

TM17 rated a "Buy" in today's The Times Tempus column.

Snippet -

"Team 17 has a strong pipeline of new games and the industry is likely to be boosted by the launch of the next generation of Xbox and Playstation later in the year. Goodbody, the stockbroker, predicts that annual revenues will rise to at least £80 million from £62 million last year. Its shares trade on a multiple of more than 30 times next year’s predicted earnings. Team 17 is not cheap, but it operates in a sector with solid growth prospects and boasts an experienced management team with skin in the game.

Advice Buy
Why Team 17 is highly rated for a reason — it’s a well run company in a growth sector"

Tempus does have a pretty good record og picking winners, I find.

Following the previous period of consolidation a few weeks ago, in the 30's, the price pulled back close to its low's during that period around 33p on 1.8.20 , before commencing an almost daily rise to around 65p on 18.8.20.

We are now again pulling back closer to the 50p level after recent trading in the mid 50's.

Hopefully the chart will repeat again, and move up towards the 100p level following the AGM.

"He said he would eventually like to float the company on the London Stock Exchange. "I'd rather take the company up to a £500 million valuation than let it get bought by a big US tech company and the best way to do that is often through an IPO," he said. "It's really sad when a national champion gets swallowed up so I'll be doing my level best to make sure that doesn't happen."

8% or so of £500M would account for almost the entire valuation of ASLR - not including all the other bits.

Interesting, and IPO possible as well.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/robbie-williams-sheryl-crow-alesha-dixon-streaming-sky-q-rob-lewis-a4542641.html