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I suspect that this could go up almost as fast as it came down.

As I wrote a few days ago 100p by mid September with maybe a bit of a wobble around 70p-80p - just as on the way down.

There is no "new" BWNG news in the public domain over recent weeks merely what appears to be a reappraisal based upon good figures and reports from internet based rivals, and perhaps a dawning appreciation that BWNG has turned a corner.

Hopefully a bit of mean will be put on the bones at the AGM, but a market cap of £250M to £300M should be a no brainer.

The High Street is being wiped out before our very eyes, apart from perhaps a few niche offerors, so anyone who is still there will have to create their own platforms in order to compete, or join with an established player.

The likes of BOO, ASOS and NEXT would probably drive too hard a bargain - but BWNG could make an interesting partner

I expect that BWNG will continue to move fast for a while yet.

And maybe a few more TR1's yet to be disclosed...?

My 100p is of course a guesstimate and is based on not very much at all.

However Q1 results show that despite sales down 28% (since at least partially recovered) operating costs were down 42% due to inter alia, furlough and reductions in marketing.

Now here is the interesting point - during Q1 and the three weeks following net debt reduced from £497M to £447M.

That is £50M in the space of 110 days or £454K per day, every day for three and a half months.

That is real cash paying off real debts.

That is quite some reduction when your sales have effectively collapsed.

So although BWNG is keeping very mum at present, I suspect they are doing very well indeed.

YE February 2021 net debt is estimated at £380M-£400M, so they've got eight and a half months to do the remaining £47M to £67M, or a reduction of £184K to £262K per day of net debt, or for the rest of the year just 40% to 57% of the daily reduction achieved in Q1.

I suspect, given that the challenging position in Q1 appears to have improved somewhat, then net debt following Q1 will reduce faster than the initial estimate, that is, cash generation will be stronger.

I think the market will anticipate this and the shares will accordingly rerate over the next month or so.

The debt reduction is also significant for new investors. Whilst the debt position actually reflects monies owed by customers, the headline £500M debt vs £100M equity would, I think dissuade many investors from investing in the company.

If debts were around £350M vs equity of £300M that in itself makes the company much more investable , and as debts reduce and equity increases this in turn leads to a virtuous circle.

The first part was to get the debt on a firm downwards trend. That appears to have been achieved, and now in turn the share price is responding and moving upwards.

The significant alteration in the debt/equity ratio suggests to me that the shares will rerate quite quickly over the next month or so, which in turn leads in itself to further improvement in that ratio, and then makes the shares more attractive despite their higher price.

So the higher the share price the better value and less risky they become!

Obviously stops at some time but we're very far from that point at the moment.

All IMHO, DYOR etc..

ASLR presently have 105M shares in issue @ 47p, suspension price, giving it a market cap of £44M.

The most recent off market trades were @ 70p.

AAA have 1.2M of these shares and options for warrants over a little over 20M shares in ASLR.

These warrants are exercisable mainly @ 18p , but some @ 6p. The agreed price with the sellers of the options was 231M AAA shares at 1.5p.

Since these warrants were purchased the AAA share price has increased from 1.5p to 6p, or 400%. AAA seemingly hold almost no assets other than these shares and warrants.

Now a really extraordinary thing happened last week whereby the sellers (unknown) of the warrants agreed that due to the increase in the AAA share price instead of getting 231M AAA shares they will now get only 48M AAA shares - very roughly they are now getting their AAA shares at a price of around 7p, instead of 1.5p - they are voluntarily giving up around 400% profit.

What is more AAA with presently 781M shares in issue @ 6p is valued at £46M.

But their only real asset is the potential interest in around 22M ASLR shares, which if all the AAA options are exercised would be very roughly 18% of the ASLR share capital. There are some other ASLR options floating about so the % could be less.

So assuming the ASLR market cap stays the same 18% of £47M is £8.5M. So the present AAA shares are around 5x over valued.

OR ASLR is 5x+ undervalued and if the 6p price of AAA is correct ASLR shares should be around 235p - not allowing for any other options.

If the 235p valuation is correct then after AAA takes their stake, assuming no other options are exercised ASLR would be worth approx £300M.

But ASLR's seemingly main asset is to be around 9% in the issued share capital of MESH, which if no further MESH shares are issued, would value MESH @ around £3Bn.

So either the MESH/Sentiance deal is very, very valuable indeed and everyone is about to make oodles of cash here, or someone has got their sums wrong.

If anyone thinks it is me, I would be happy to be corrected.

All figures approximate, of course.

SG, I'm not really sure what is going on.

I did invest in ASLR as a bit of a punt, sold half prior to suspension after a good profit, so whatever happens here now I'm sitting relatively comfortably.

AAA, yes their main asset is shares/options in ASLR, I think they also own a legacy Far East resort, which presumably now only has a nominal value.

As for PIRI, TRAF, AAA even DEV I did think at one time they may all be involved in fundraising for supporting ASLR in acquiring Sentiance. Of course now it appears ASLR don't require cash for Sentiance, they're simply getting 24M shares in MESH for giving up their options and interests.

As for MCC I think holders got shares in MESH, which were then in turn suspended and delisted.

I was worried the same (suspension/delisting) could happen at ASLR but we appear to be safeish now, and will be readmitted to trading shortly.

Could be fireworks that day!

(Or not)

There also appear to be many cross holdings here - Chris Akers has shares in just about everything, but Mrs Bonnier it now seems not only has increased her holdings in MESH, but also has shares in ASLR. Same applies to most of the other big holders - they've mostly got fingers in each other's pies - no doubt all carefully worked out by themselves but unravelling it all and working out what is going on and why on the information pi's have could be quite tricky, if not impossible.

Then there are the options in ASLR at 135p and something like 250p......

MESH seems to be the vehicle they are moving ahead with now, as Mrs Bonnier has something like 14.8%, but the recent announcement means, as Mr Bonnier is resident abroad the normal M&A rules don't apply.

Why MESH, unlisted I'm not sure - maybe those non applicable M&A rules are important.

Quite where it all leads I'm not sure, but the AAA price is up something like 2000% since it became involved with Mr Akers and ASLR and 106% since the ASLR/MESH deal was announced.

I take that as a positive for ASLR, but as we are all "locked in", we have very little say in what is going on and just have to sit here.

And how is Sentiance to be paid for?

And have the FCA forgiven Mr Bonnier?

Interesting, if nothing else.

Updated shareholder register taken from the latest Annual Report and RNS's since.

Lord Alliance.....................................................33.82%
Nigel Alliance....................................................11.02%
Schroders..........................................................10.07%
UBS London........................................................8.82%
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management.......5.35%
Norges Bank........................................................4.04%

Total...................................................................73.12%

Both the Schroders and Norges Bank holdings are recent 3%+ additions.

I can only think that some party somewhere is continuing to accumulate, which is why we are still in the mid 30's - it is being held for the big hitter.

Around 15% of the total value of the company snaffled in the last month or so - that alone should cause it to rise, not be a flat as a pancake.

Cannot see there is a bid coming as the Alliance family own 44% - if they were opposed to a bid, a hostile party could never over come that holding, and if they were in favour, hostile wouldn't need to build a holding.

In any event I seem to recall reading they rejected an offer at a much higher price than at present, several years ago.

So I see the recent purchases as evidence of long term investment by parties who see significant value here. Presumably they will have done much more dd than the average pi, and quite possibly have even met with management.

I guess we'll know when they are finished via RNS/price action, although if one or more parties keep at it there may be quite a considerable shortage of shares - there are only 286M in issue anyway of which 209M are accounted for by the above holdings leaving only 76M in the market.

Certainly, in reality, far fewer.

When the squeeze comes it may be a biggie.

Will continue to accumulate as and when - the market can remain irrational for quite a while yet, so will take every advantage insofar as I can.

Assuming of course, there are any shares left.

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