Member Info for skittish

We also seem to be heading back into the upwards trend channel which has existed since March.

I reckon the lowest point is around 65p, so hopefully we will get there later today, and then continue upwards.

I'm with Barclays - not in yet.

But who cares? Unless you are keen to sell, they will be shortly.

And the important thing is the share price is going up, after the major and probably unnecessary distraction of the last 6 weeks. The important thing is that the company is able to turn present events to its advantage.

The headline debt figure will have reduced from around £500M to around £280M over the course of 12 months. Dividends also quite likely to start again.

The January update will be crucial - they need to show that the ship is actually turning around rather than talking about strategies to achieve that objective. They've had 12 months since the last disastrous January update so should really be showing signs of progress now - especially with the gift of lockdown for much of the last 12 months.

Share price seems to be acting appropriately - and we're now in auction!

City Chic paid the equivalent of internet turnover for Evans -£23M - in effectively a fire sale.

There is value here.

The bots are quiet this morning.

The price has slipped neatly back into the post March uptrend.

As for taking the money p74 of the prospectus covers it - all cheques will be cashed - and any excess money returned after the offer becomes unconditional, or by 23rd December, or by 15th January 2021, if the company agrees, at the applicants (our) risk.

As applicants appear to have got around 1 in 4 of the shares applied for in the excess entitlement presumably those who applied for excess will be getting some money back.

He could have hoovered up the shares very cheaply - but maybe at the beginning of the pandemic was financially embarrassed elsewhere, or maybe would have had to bid for the reminder of the company at that time which would have meant a tussle with the II's, who wouldn't have backed him as it was too cheap, and he doesn't get the company on AIM.

Being a bit of a wheeler dealer needs to keep in with the City boys and not take them for a ride.

This way he goes up to 52% cheaply, makes it more likely a private deal succeeds eventually, and everyone gets the illusion of cheap shares in the pot.

And as davwal says it could be helping greatly with inheritance planning.

Internet retailer on a p/e of 4-6, all it needs to do now is grow a bit and the shares will get whizzy.

Looks to me that it works something like this:-

Total shares to be issued 174,666,053 @57p

Independent shareholders apply for 60,018,958, so 114,647,095 left up for grabs.

Alliance agreed not to apply for any shares under the OO, but in a legal sleight of hand were regarded for the purposes of the excess entitlement as applying in the OO so were able to apply under the excess entitlement and applied for the maximum - I can't see a figure for the maximum but presumably it was all of the shares.

Of the 114,647,095 left Alliance were regarded as applying for 78,303,460 (their OO entitlement - even though they hadn't) leaving 36,343,635 up for grabs under the EE - Independent shareholders have been allocated 1,304,554 which then leaves 35,039,081 which have been taken by Alliance.

The key point to me is that Alliance couldn't participate in the OO, even though for legal purposes they were regarded as doing so, this lead to more shares falling into the EO, in which Alliance sought to bid for all the shares (no figure actually presented in the RNS for their EE application)

As Alliance was bidding for all the shares they could under the EE facility, it had to be scaled back.

The final figures don't seem to work out quite right, however no doubt it is all covered in the prospectus.

Essentially it was always intended as a land grab by Alliance. As he now has 52% presumably they will take it private at some time in the future - only question is at what price?

I'd be happy to be corrected on my figures and assumptions if any one has an alternative scenario.

The important thing for me is that now all this is coming to an end the shares are up and almost back within the lowest part of the trend line from 10p in early March.

Hopefully will continue upwards until the bid comes.

Not presently invested here but this caught my eye - The Times 8-12-20

"Guy Hands has put his money behind a streaming business in a deal that marks the private equity tycoon’s first venture in the music industry since his calamitous deal for EMI 13 years ago.

Mr Hands, the founder of Terra Firma, the buyout house, is said to have made a personal investment in Roxi, a start-up that allows users to play music quizzes and sing karaoke, as part of a broader £13 million fundraising. Sun Capital Partners, the private equity firm founded by Hugh Osmond, is believed to have spearheaded the funding round.

Roxi, based in London, was founded in 2014 by Rob Lewis, an entrepreneur. Kylie Minogue took a stake in Roxi last month and other backers include Robbie Williams and Sheryl Crow.

Terra Firma acquired EMI for £4.2 billion in 2007. The deal proved to be disastrous and Terra Firma lost control of the record label in 2011. Mr Hands subsequently brought a £1.5 billion claim against Citigroup, the bank, over the EMI deal but dropped his lawsuit in 2016."

Looks like ASLR is in good company.

Suspect the MESH deal may have passed us by, as all the action price wise is with AAA.

Some know what is going on, but it is obvious that your average pi investor is not privy to that information - only the "favoured one's"

Missed that yesterday.

New ath though today - 820p.

And closed above 800p again.

And don't forget the FD bought on the day the offer was announced @ 61p, even though the shares collapsed to 49p intraday.

These people knew what they are doing and the likely effect it would have on the share price.

Quite likely more of the same tomorrow, IMHO.

Good luck, not everyday you come across a free money tree.

No Alliance does not have the same rights.

He has underwritten the entire offer, but the flipside is that he has agreed that his entire entitlement and that of the family - 45% - is up for grabs under the excess application.

If there remains a discount of around 19% on decision day I expect ii's will be applying for as many as they can lay their hands on. It is free money.

The idea that Alliance would maintain their holdings, or even increase was predicated on the assumption that the shares would not rise above 57p, and would actually trade below that price until decision day.

Today should have disabused everyone of that notion.

68p is 19.2% above OO.

Where to tomorrow - bearing in mind we appear to have broken the 64p resistance on the 4th attempt?

Suspect there will be great demand for these shares once the funding is completed.

And at the rate we are going Alliance may not get any new shares - so the family holding will reduce, to possibly 35%.

Unloved and overlooked - but not for much longer it would appear.

Quality shines through, eventually....

Bid now 17.1% ahead of OO price.

Surprised by the lack of action this afternoon - but then some shares are sometimes a bit slow to react.

Happy with 40p close.

Hopefully onwards and upwards over coming days/weeks as the good news filters through.

MM's loading up again, but not dropping the price as before.

Hopefully the buying will move into the 40's shortly.

Investor presentation starts at 11am.

May get a bit of movement after that now that MM's are loaded up with a decent amount of "cheap" stock.

And pi presentation this evening.

Another 1.8M gone through as a late trade @ 812p.

I'm assuming they are all from yesterday.

TM17 seems to react slowly, so the full picture may not emerge for a few days, IMHO.

Yes, interesting.

A few notable things happened today - first close above 800p at 812p, which is within a whisker of the ath of 815p set last week.

Second - very high trading volume 5M+, which puts it the third highest day in around the last 3 years, so clearly a major transfer of shares going on.

Third - the highest day ever, around 15M, earlier this year, led to the shares being flat/declining for around 3 months whilst the massive block of shares was absorbed into the market at around 600p. On that occasion I think, from memory, the shares were sold at something of a discount to the prevailing price, which doesn't seem to be what happened today.

Fourth - the spat at CDM appears to be getting worst, with some large shareholders questioning the price of the deal and the "independence " of the non exec's, one of whom stands to get 3 years pay for around 6 months' work, if the deal goes through.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/pressure-rises-on-directors-over-sale-of-codemasters-f8pdm2z2c

"A large shareholder said that the non-executives could not be considered neutral parties in the acquisition talks because the deal, if it was completed, would accelerate their payouts.

The complaint by the investor, who would not be named, marks a significant escalation in the row over the proposed acquisition of Codemasters, which makes racing games, by Take-Two Interactive, the Nasdaq powerhouse behind Grand Theft Auto."

CDM closed at an ath today of 504p, more than the 485p offer.

I think there could be quite a bit more to come here - the CDM sell out at an undervalue is looking very shaky.

3 huge trades after hours today totalling around 4.4M shares all around top price, 812p, totalling £35M.

Hopefully there may be an RNS incoming shortly.

Looks like the J D Sports takeover of Debenhams is now on the rocks - Sunday Times tomorrow

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/arcadia-collapse-sends-debenhams-rescue-skidding-8mg7zqbkg

"The imminent collapse of Sir Philip Green’s Arcadia Group will push Debenhams to the brink of liquidation, as JD Sports considers backing away from a proposed rescue of the ailing department store chain at the eleventh hour."

Crucially there will shortly be many fewer places on the High Street to do clothes shopping.

People will be forced to go online to shop if they aren't already doing so. Most of the trade from these once stalwarts of the UK shopping scene can only end up in the laps of the online retailers as there are fewer and fewer places for it to go.

N Brown appears now to have all the elements in place required for a winning formula - it is a matter of implementing in the most appropriate manner to maximize profits.

This is what The Times said yesterday about buy now pay later Klarna -

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shoppers-online-surge-pays-off-for-klarna-6wstww7gg

"Buy-now, pay-later is the UK’s fastest growing online payment method, according to Worldpay, a payments processing company.

"Klarna, the Swedish online lender and payments provider, said transactions using its buy-now, pay-later platform have soared as consumers have spent more online during the pandemic.

"Klarna provides shoppers with instant credit when they make purchases in shops or online. It has a pay-later option giving customers 30 days to pay. It also has an “pay in three” option allowing three instalments over two months. Neither has any interest or fees, even if the payment is late.

"The company reported a 43 per cent jump in the value of transactions made on its payment platform in the first nine months of the year. The gross merchandise volume — the value of transactions made — rose to $35 billion, with a $13 billion increase in the third quarter alone.

"The update on growth follows a $650 million investment in September by Silver Lake, the private equity firm, GIC, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, Blackrock and HMI Capital, valuing Klarna at $11 billion.

"Klarna said it had added 57,000 new partners in the nine months to September 30, including Macy’s, Etsy, Sephora, Ralph Lauren, Club Monaco and The North Face."