RE: Discretionary Commission +/- share price views please24 Jun 2025 14:06
If you take the PPI mortgage scandal as a benchmark, and assume it began around 2004 (when the Guardian first started reporting loudly on it), and assume it ended with the official claim deadline from the FCA of 2019, then you're looking at a -75% collapse in the LLOY share price. That's an absolute worst-case scenario for the DCA car-loan scandal.
Of course, any drop (or rise) in the LLOY share price due to the DCA car-loan scandal will depend on the overall size of the FCA ruling in H2 2025. The bigger the payout, the further the shares will fall. The smaller the payout, the further the shares will rise.
Perhaps one way of looking at it is to allocate a -1% shareprice fall for every ยฃ1b of overall total payout "fine" levied by the FCA ruling. So, a ยฃ5b payout will make the LLOY shareprice fall -5%, while a ยฃ50b payout will drive a -50% fall in LLOY.
* Big payout = big fall
* Mid payout = mid fall
* Small payout = small fall
* No payout = small rise
Scenario planning...
* ยฃ0b payout = +5% rise
* ยฃ5b payout = -5% fall
* ยฃ15b payout = -15% fall
* ยฃ50b payout = -50% fall
All the above is opinion and speculation. Dyor, etc.