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Thanks for the response K.Invest. Apologies for being so blunt in my earlier response but I do appreciate your more detailed thoughts. I think, like AS and many here, it depends on manufacturing volume & profit. If we assume 20 million produced a month and £2 profit per test and this will last 12 months then £480m profit - covers the share price+ and adds no future value for diagnostics business or the core business. This is just the UK of course - will we have licence deals for Europe, USA & Asia? Will the diagnostics business grow faster because of the proven quality of Affimers? Will the JVs in asia & with other pharmas come good in the short term? Will the diagnostics business be bought out on a good multiple? Will covid last longer & vaccines not work well? Will the LFD device not work or sell as well as we expect?
These are the sorts of points that will dictate whether we make good money here or not, and are worth good debate.
Lastly, I've learned that shares always spike and pull back - the questions are (as per above) will they continue to spike and fall back.
Nice and vague K.Invest - "short term will spike then as sales drop/ vaccine on the horizon, sentiment will fall fast."
So how high will sales get to, how much profit, for how long in your view.? When will sales drop and a vaccine be available - 3 month? 6 mths? 1yr? 2yrs?. How much will sales drop (in your view). Typical waffle and lack of any real analysis.
I guess to be expected, this is an AIM bulletin board, but would appreciate some logical thought out analysis rather than waffle.
Ridiculous getting out at £2.50 if you think that will be the top - miles off if we have acceptable S&S and manufacturing.
What planet are you on - missus banished you to the shed & you having a temper tantrum all day today?
Hi Orange 88,
1. why are you on Avacta's board, not posting about Avacta?
2. Your last point 'Oh and are the government really going to publicly associate themselves with a test that has direct involvement from Boohoo? I’d be very surprised if they do...' sounds very naive and childish (way past bedtime).
3. We prefer adult analysis and comments on this board.
Hi Jdam, agree totally. The reason the Avacta board members came on the ODX site late this afternoon was because a small number of ODX members went onto the Avacta board earlier and deramped it heavily all afternoon and into the evening. Motivation- no idea. Crazy really as the potential market is bigger than both companies could possibly sell into, and all that happens is that we put off potential investors that come onto the boards. I'm invested in both, more in Avacta although (for me) significant investment here.
Of course the irony is the market decides, not a bunch of posters on a board, no matter how eloquent the posters sound or how impressive their handles seem to be. And AVCT has a current market cap and ODX has a current market cap, and there are reasons for that, as the market would say. One small point - the opportunities for both companies are enormous, so why don't we just stop all this nonsense and avoid putting off investors who are new to this sector.
Have posted this on the ODX board as well
Send the message to Mechantbanker
For all you ODX board members wondering why you have Avacta posters on your board today, MechantBanker has been on the Avacta board all day today and posted 21 (yes 21) posts. He's not invested there, so why go and antagonise? Hence the response.
If Avacta don't do as well as expected by their investors, I expect some humble pie. If they do, I expect further visits here (thanks to your merchantbanker).
Maybe multiple use cases for these types of tests. For example, tests done at home for your own benefit carry no formal status. But same tests undertaken in a supervised/monitored screnario proviide a level of verification, possibly with technology/smartphone app to sustain verification for a period of time. I guess like much during 2020, we'll be 'learning on the fly'.
I was invested in ODX a few months back - paid around 70p a share - where is the share price now? Antibody tests may have some value, but probably little value. Can I catch covid again - seems like yes. Do I produce antibodies when I can initially spread covid for a couple of weeks - seems like no (so test is useless for screening). Would be interested in seeing some quantitative info on a future valuation of ODX - sustainable sales, margins etc. Only thing I see on the ODX board is whinging how Avacta market cap is so high and why ODX is so low - no financial analysis.
We get these sort of people (Ethio) on our local community boards - wouldn't say boo to a goose in the real world, and pretty brainless, but get them behind a screen on a bulletin board... Enough said.
Don't worry patheticopathetico, we'll come and haunt you on the ODX board at the appropriate time - seems very childish, but if that's how you want to play. Give it a week or so.
Very Funny. One of their posters, Mechantbanker (based on his posting details, sounds more like the ****ney rhyming slang meaning of his name) is spouting off, in some detail, about how Avacta are overvalued. Goes back to Feb 2020 valuations, selectively misses so many points of value for Avacta since then (if you bother to do proper research). He's trying to calm down the board, but he is either stupid or has a very selective approach for value analysis. You have to laugh....
Moniman is a frustrated & impatient Avacta investor - from his history, posting on the Avacta board on 21 June:
"As a new Investor here I'm trying to look through all the hype of £50/share...seeing how well the placing went (I bought last week on the open market as SP dipped below the placing price)..I'm looking at the facts..the key reason for taking a sizeable investment here is from the recent management statement.......
"The Board anticipates strong near-term news flow relating to the COVID-19 test developments with Cytiva and Adeptrix, as well as commercial and technical progress in the established therapeutic and diagnostics businesses, allowing the Company to concurrently achieve multiple value inflection points that we expect will deliver substantial shareholder returns. I look forward to updating the market on our continued progress."
That's good enough for me and with another £45million in the bank on top of existing cash prospects look very positive imho....Adyor!
Now sounding very imaptient...
@Greenkitty, you talk like a momentum trader. By that I mean you only talk about share price momentum and trends, and nothing about company value propositions, upcoming product announcements, potential company profits and impact on share price, competitors etc. So you have done no real research on the company's current prospects and are just following momentum - not really a balanced view or a good role model for other investors.
Musey, why are you posting here? as you are clearly an ODX investor from your history. We understand that Antibody tests can be useful, but they aren't game changers - that will be down to mass, quick response antigen tests (like Avacta's). Good luck to you on ODX - I'm sure you will do well.