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Hi MrGoldsmith, as per Smythy's comment, the energy management division was sold to flogas, leaving the original energy services business. I suspect that the BoDs will look to sell this off too as the buy and build strategy employed to scale the business hasn't worked. they don't have deep enough pockets to fight an organic growth battle against the lead players in their market. I could be way off pace however, who knows with this stick... good luck all.
I agree a divi is unlikely, as I suspect they will sell the Energy Services business this year also, and having cash in bank will help their valuation. We will see. Good look all.
It would be great to get an update from the BoD soon. I suspect a delay in communicating anything at this time is that they are waiting on some key news. Hopefully a special dividend, as this would attract a different type of investor going forward and maybe encourage a few existing investors to hold on rather than take profits too early.
Let's sit and watch, good luck all.
Fully agree PTI. I suspect we have a big seller at 8p, as it has been a firm resistance for some time now. Finalised 2023 accounts, and another decent RNS will hopefully blow away the remaining cobwebs.
Given how generous the BoD has been with their own 'bonuses'... I agree a special divi would be appreciated.
It feels like we have a lot of sellers at 8p. Natural resistance level or a trigger point for a larger seller? probably both, otherwise I think we would be north of 10p already. It will come. good luck all.
The key outstanding questions I have are;
What were the final 2023 results? We are yet to see these, and the sale RNS intimated that the results were off the pace. What are they going to do with the remaining energy services business? In the scheme of things it seems too small to be listed yet the BOD have given themselves very healthy SP options with quite high SP target levels. How will they get there? I would like to see a clear strategy. If there isn't one, I suspect they will sell off this final part of the business as well at some point this year and move on to the next project.
I received the same email, with no rescheduling done as yet. I don't think it will impact the deal. It is more likely they need a bit more time for some reason, big deal near to closing maybe or want the money in the bank first..
Yes Shandy, if the SP can get north of 8p prior to the EGM then I think we will be well placed to kick on towards 10p+ quite quickly. It would be great to see a large strategic win as part an end of year financials RNS to fan the flames, which might push us towards 15p. but that is me being overly optimistic.
I agree with the sentiment of your post, and bought another decent slice this morning at a similar price to you. good luck all.
I think the reference in the RNS to under performance in the last financial year has took the shine of the potential deal, and it is exactly that, a potential deal. As likely as it is to be completed, it isn't yet . I suspect the SP will correct once the deal gets over the line and last year's results have been published. They haven't proven themselves to manage cash well previously, and having £25m in the bank doesn't guarantee they will do going forward. Investors will want to see clear direction from the BOD going forward, and maybe even an RNS of a big win to have confidence to invest or hold.
Fair points shandy, so my calcs should be worse case.. we will start to trend up soon.
I believe there are a number of things playing out currently;
-profit takers that got in sub 5p, which there there will be a lot, as we were down near 3p for a while.
-shareholders from legacy acquisitions cashing in. They have been sat on shares way below market value for some time and they are probably frustrated. I know this to be true, as I am one.. :)
-MM's playing the game to mop up cheap shares, as some of the trades today/yesterday just do not make sense.
I suspect we will settle down back end of this week and start to normalise up until the day of the vote. Once the deal is ratified I fully expect this to bounce north of 8p and hopefully test 10p. I think we will only push on from there once the AIM market as a whole starts to improve.
The interims project the Energy Services EBITDA to be £2.3 million. If you wind this down to a flat £2m to take into account the expected under performance as cited in the RNS, this gives a share price of 3.6p based on 7x. 5.2p on 10x.
I calculate the £25m to be the equiv of 6.5p (£25m/387.2m shares). This gives a fair value range of 10-12p before considering any upside 'potential'.
I agree, I was expecting it to prop above 9p and test 10p and beyond, but quite the opposite. It looks like we have a big seller at 8p, possibly an investor cashing in, which keeps pulling the rug.. I suspect we will bounce around for a few days until the system is flushed and then charge north to 10p+.
They got there in the end.. Hopefully the profit takers are mopped up quickly. I also suspect share holders from legacy acquisitions may look to cash in also, muting the upside further in the short term. Real price action will likely occur once the deal actually goes through following the AGM in Feb. We will see. good luck all.
There you go! I hang my hat on a Monday sale RNS.
This stock tends to have 'funny Friday's if memory serves me correctly. I might do the analysis if I can find time..
This looks like more organised than normal however, and if we get some large 'after hours' trades today, I suspect an RNS will drop Monday.
Well, if you could give one of your old colleagues a call and ask them to get a wriggle on, that would be appreciated. :)
Given this is your first post, what prompted you to contribute?
Profit taking for sure. If someone got in at the time of the potential sale (sp @ c5p) they are sitting on c40% profits, so it is understandable. Longer term holders might need to see a bit more upside. :) I am averaged in at 6.7, and agree with your sentiment on valuation. 13-17p seems a sensible range, and I remember when this stock went to 27p when they weren't even profitable. in terms of the deal, it does feel like the sale is close, but I am sure I said that mid December... :)
I believe we will see a more positive AIM market in 2024, so I hopefully this stock feels those tailwinds. Good luck all.
Yes I believe so, albeit they probably didn't pay anywhere near £21m in reality.
"eEnergy acquired the entire issued share capital of Utility Team for up £21 million, comprising a combination of up-front cash consideration and the issue of shares in eEnergy and an earn-out."