Member Info for Sisu

Completely. To me it's a huge strike of intelligence if someone can explain such complex matters with such ease and clarity - not many of us here paid attention in our science lessons I'm sure but he certainly knows how to elaborate for all parties to understand. Also get the feeling he could sell ice to an Eskimo.

FWIW Medusa have been quoted to be gunning for "up to 100m tests per month"*, 50m at Wirral as you say and 50m seemingly elsewhere. One would assume Madrid/EU to capture a piece of the marketplace there that they already have themselves within. Of course pinch of salt needs to be taken with all manufacturing capacity aims.

GAD are aiming at 250m per year as far as I'm aware (so a little under 21m / month)

* https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire-news/founders-lancashire-based-boohoo-launch-18952163

Also, jdt, as an aside but on the LFT v PCR debate in this context. Regarding sensitivity rather than specificity/false negatives, an important factor is the 'infectiousness' scale that AS has banged on the drum of for so long. PCR, if positive, will say so even if it picks it up on one of the last cycles; where you have the tiniest of viral load and aren't near an infectious state.

AVCT's LFT is 100% at these levels and that is so important it can't be said enough, even if that proves to be 99% or 99.99% in larger scales - it's a monumental step forward in comparison to other LFT's we have vision of. I would feel confident on a flight knowing everyone had taken a solitary LFT with this s/s, let alone 2.

Based on 99% exactly, the chances of 2 consecutive false positives (out of only 2) is 1 in 10,000. 1% of 1% essentially. With the cost 7fold cheaper, based on £5 cost price, than the CHEAPEST PCR (not to mention so much quicker) and 40fold cheaper than the higher end cost of PCR - it's a huge huge win in favour of LFT's. Very sensitive and specific ones at that.

AVCT specificity actually was 99.019607843137% if we're being meticulous so will affect less than 1 in 10,000. :-)

https://twitter.com/sensedx1/status/1268463867753123842

Wonder how much they paid for a good bit of PR. They've been pressing the PR since March last year and are currently still plenty of months away. Just hunting for more investors seemingly, it looks a great product but the cost for something that may be marginally more sensitive/specific than AVCT's LFT - not ideal.

Rumour has it Deeks was the 102nd to be tested and flagged as a false positive. He scampered around the hospital swiping every surface and stuffing his fingers up his nose - he's over the moon to have pushed our specificity down from 100% to 99%. Still market leading but every little helps Deeks.

The sovereign LFT definitely will be utilising an app of sorts to display/log results.

UK Gov LFT DPS Spec: "4.2 To ensure each Test is uniquely identifiable, we currently require (as at March 2021) the providers of the Test to have the capability to be able to print, or add as a label, a QR Code with a matching unique alphanumeric ID sequence onto the cassette housing the Test"

https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W13/747765928

Published two weeks ago, just sourcing transport for daily deliveries (UK to UK - so not Innova as they utilise freight of course).

"The Test & Trace programme requires logistics capabilities to enable the storage and outbound distribution capabilities of Lateral Flow Devices (LFD) to support the Government’s ambition to scale up and increase the volume of testing available across all pharmacies in England from April 2021."

"The DPS is expected to launch on 16 April 2021 and will run for an initial period of 12 months with the option to extend the DPS for a further 12 months."

Responses for this contract by 06/04 so I'm sure they've sourced the winner of that contract after the webinar, now they just need a good LFT to load into thousands of trucks a week.. anyone know any potential LFT ready soon?

Have a great rest of week.. :-)

Jar, there is an image just below (not one above with a glucose meter) that sentence with a picture of LFT's lined up with one being held close to the camera. Dotting the i's and crossing the t's. Buckle up.

Aptamers - burn it! :-) Great spot, seems like it really has legs as an option. The glucose machines are a lot more expensive (at least to buy) at $20-$50 but unsure whether they are single use, if they aren't and you can re-use it's a fantastic idea (don't worry - LFT still has huge huge upside and probably preferable, out the packet, test and in the bin).

Note they used the S protein over the N - and S/S seems pretty unflappable. Whack an a few Affimers in and it's unbeatable.

Oh most definitely RNmyS, looking at the Google Search of the image it is just described simply as a 'Measuring Instrument' so as I said - perhaps looking too far into it. Just very interesting, never a bad thing to keep the mind active investigating whilst the hours tick closer to one where we all rejoice. :-)

Perhaps looking a little too far into the website update teaser that was showing a picture of what seemed to be a glucose meter (with AVCT badge branded upon it) in relation to COVID testing.. that or I'm bored at work. Could such a test have legs? I'm not insinuating a link-up with the below company, as such, but a glucose meter style small portable machine reading results of COVID-19 test isn't unfathomable. Albeit unlikely/non-starter with UK Gov.

Marc Green (Head of Product Development at Avacta) worked for start-up company Luas Diagnostics previous to this job.....

"Luas Diagnostics: 1. Covid-19 testing

Luas has signed an exclusive distribution agreement with Chembio Diagnostics Systems in the USA to market their Covid-19 antibody and antigen tests in the UK and Ireland. These tests will be sold for use in the workplace, pharmacies, care homes, airports, police forces and many other market segments.

Luas has signed a memorandum of understanding with the University of Birmingham to develop a saliva based, rapid Covid-19 test. Saliva is a convenient sample to obtain and has been shown to be as accurate as swabs.

The COVID-19 test will run on a small, low-cost, portable device, providing results in minutes. The eHealth enabled device, similar to a glucose meter, will not only provide rapid results at the site where the test is performed, allowing immediate patient management, but will use Bluetooth to transmit the results directly to a Smartphone App and a secure cloud-based server which can then be accessed by health care professionals."

Food for thought none-the-less. Off to take my meds..... ? “The thing about smart people is that they seem like crazy people to dumb people.”

Allowing everyone time to buy in and top-up to the high heavens before he opens the floodgates for the news to flow. This is a very altruistic move from AS

Most definitely Monkshood, no way to factor in the weighting of probability (at least from myself) of potential cross reactivity etc. I doubt even Innova know fully, nor want to know! Also just don't know the time between testing, the manner in which the person carried out the test etc.

Multitude of reasons for it to occur, there is also a huge variation in conditioning of Innova packages according to reports, so all tests may be from same dodgy batch.

Hopefully soon this need not be a topic, Innova tests will have their purpose and that will be to fill any gaps in the extremity of size of market required for LFT's.

Also, as an aside has any one got the link for Government desired timeline LFT-wise. I believe it had 19th April as a key date in regards to rollout, has been put here a few times but my investigate skills are lacklustre at best to find it again. Cheers in advance

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/968095/lateral-flow-device-specificity-in-phase-4.pdf

Recent Analysis on Innova. Using relevant (real-life situations) data, Innova go at 50.1% LFD sensitivity and 99.72% specificity - this is on the pre-requisite of PCR sensitivity being 100%. Pooled estimate of 94% on the sensitivity may perhaps be closer but using the 99.72% (comparison to PCR) is the known benchmark.

Going at 99.72% the chances of having 3 false positives, from let's say 20 tests. The chances of this person's story being true is 0.00239%. 3 from 50 would be 0.03771%.

If anyone wants to know how I worked that out then I'll try explain but after a coffee..

Now let's get everyone the AVCT gold-standard LFT's! :-)

Shares are shares, you're working against the elements in these situations so well done on slipping a few more into your pocket!

Avct have inadvertedly built themselves into an astute situation, the news has near limitless upside once it starts to flow. Its not one piece of news we're awaiting, it's the floodgates that open from the first. It suits all types of investors to get a few to hand and thats showing in the SP the past few days.

Risk/reward at play and perception from me is less and less are taking the risk of getting out, and are seeing more reward for the potential risk of short term news.

Fun last 3 hours of trading all!

I'm not one for conspiracy but I think that was a show of as close to the proverbial writing on the wall as we are to get here at AVCT. Every share into the 250s and low 260s has been absolutely munched up by some whales. The fact similar happened over at ODX (would be interested in seeing a timed graph comparison for all), shows something is all but signed on the dotted line UK consortium wise.

Never nice to see for any share, voltures swoop in for crossramping too. Hopefully some got out of alive.

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/private-coronavirus-covid-19-testing-validation/private-covid-19-testing-validation

Apologies if posted previously, some good reading on importance and longevity of testing (as we unfortunately know, years). Also hammering home a message on the UK based production.

"The UK government has a number of objectives in relation to facilitating a thriving private sector market for COVID-19 detection testing. One key objective is about enabling and supporting innovation. We are keen to grow the private testing market, enabling domestic innovation to improve testing effectiveness and efficiency"

"As the private sector market for the manufacture and supply of COVID-19 testing grows, it is important to drive up standards of performance for tests on the market and provide clarity for consumers on the performance of tests detecting the presence of COVID-19. Removing tests from the market only after they have been reported creates a gap during which the virus could spread. This could result in local outbreaks and subsequent negative health and secondary economic impacts resulting from any necessary measures implemented to control the spread of the virus."

"There is evidence that some COVID-19 tests do not perform as expected and as disclosed in their instructions for use (IFU). For example, only 25% passed through all stages of DHSC lateral flow validation to be considered of sufficient quality for procurement. Currently, (with the exception of self-certified IVDs) tests are permitted to enter the market without going through the process of an independent validation of their performance and not all tests are performing to a sufficiently high standard. This is despite 9 in 10 suppliers having the CE mark, with three-quarters meeting the ISO 13485 standard in relation to post market surveillance."

"The current lack of transparency over the performance of tests also has negative impacts for consumer choice. Test kit selection based on manufacturer declared performance is currently based on suboptimal, unstandardised data, making it difficult for consumers to compare performance of tests."

"Currently the data used by each manufacturer to achieve its CE marking is unique and designed by each manufacturer. This allows manufacturers to tailor their use cases to ensure the most optimal performance of their tests."

Good to know AVCT are doing this the proper way. We will play our hand and I sense pocket Aces.

https://avacta.com/diagnostics/products/ > "Gov.uk Getting Tested for Coronavirus" > "rapid lateral flow tests – only for people who do not have symptoms, they give a result in 30 minutes using a device similar to a pregnancy test
Both tests are free."

Up to 100m tests per month has also been quoted for Medusa. https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire-news/founders-lancashire-based-boohoo-launch-18952163.amp?__twitter_impression=true

They're not half-arsing this, I haven't dismissed them since first collab. Their links are worldwide, also. The opportunity for them is lucrative as anything. The Madrid link-up (our CV & Medusa's current Spanish RSPT) isn't coincidental for me, I think Medusa may surprise us pleasantly.

I think they may go at £15 per test to allow some affordability, £10 for bulk. Guess work but the potential profit for AVCT is exciting, if they managed the original 50m and we went at £5 per LFT takehome.. you've underpinned the SP within less than 2 months @ a PE of 2.

All ****ing in the wind guessing figures and manufacturing levels but good to see HUGE ambition on these from both UK Gov & Medusa.

People fed up with the time to market but I'm seeing it as time to prepare (manufacturing), time to perfect (LFT s/s) and time to plan (replaceable Affimer strip for variants).