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https://medusa19.com/ is looking raring to go, too.

Ducks, lining and all that.. Good luck all.

"As far as we are aware, our spike protein ELISA test is the most sensitive test of its kind"

RNS also refers to the sensitivity as 'high' and specificity as 'excellent'.. if 'high' can be global leading in its accuracy (within ELISA) and what only insinuates 100% specificity (my intepretation)..

These Affimers work and they work well as we know. All I'm seeing is the Affimer tech being put in to every BioTech supermarket globally, we are now lining up down every aisle and company's are having to take notice. Research may feel an anti-climax but look at Daewoong for example, these can lead us to further licensing deals from large companies satisfied with their R&D. Can easily accumulate a huge warchest and global affirmation of Affimers without us lifting a finger.

Great start to the trading week - SP can and will fluctuate, I'm looking forward to the next imminent news.

Ca. 90-95% of the UK's population are eligible to pick up a carton of 7 LFT's from their nearest participating chemist (requisite of being 18+). This will be just one methodology of receiving a test within UK, hundreds of thousands of businesses are participating and will have their own collection of tests. I know it is currently England and not UK-wide, but there's no chance the devolved nations don't include themselves in such a level of testing.

Just on the basis of a 50% UK-wide take-up of 1 box (containing 7 LFT's) every other week, you're looking at over 15 million boxes a week. Chances are many will grab more than one box fortnightly, if able, could quite easily go through 7 just to feel confident in travelling to/from work. 105M+ LFT's a week just through the pharmacy collection. The figures are staggering, even if we only get a cut (say one third) of a percentage of these. It would be a shock if UK based manufacturing could cope with the levels required to execute this plan perfectly.

For me, if we are to replicate the 100% specificity, specific being the word so often binded to Affimers, we have a real ground-breaking product (99.xx% would still be fantastic). Instantly shoots down the consistent worries of false positives, it would be a shame to have low performing LFT's mixed in amidst ones performing at 100% specificity - as it would convolute the good work by generating false positives and undermining efficacy of the testing as a whole- although unfortunately the demand will force the market to be as such. We are certainly eating up a lions share of the UK's manufacturing capacity, no coincidence there.

£29.6BN chucked at testing over the next two years, considering uptake reached over 1 million tests per day in March (during lockdown), is a very understandably gargantuas figure. One million tests per day (which will be made to look miniscule shortly) at 1/3rd of cost going to AVCT already would underpin our MarketCap after a year, without scaling in any PE factor. Nor touching the potential AffiDx (not AffiRx), nor global potential..

The Affimer production line is working over-time, that's all I know.

Certainly is feeling a little like a market town and civil parish in the county of Staffordshire

By millions I'm inferring a million millions. The old UK billion. That should just about cover all the trips to the pub for us all for the remainder of this year.

Mines a lager.

AVCT have an entirely different projection of a task to the majority of the currently saleable LFT market.

We are tackling a multitude of problems and seeking full enhacement and preparedness pre-roll out. Adaptability is to be consistently tackled by us, hence the stringent testing already for this. This prevents a cliff-edge scenario for the company, it looks likely testing for COVID will be around, sadly, for years and years. Decades is sadly not a small possibility, but a real one. This versatility also can potentially transfer to other pandemics, diseases etc.

Secondary is the global affirmation of affimers. Hey look, this product is great and here's the reason why, our magic bean. Easy to say this has not been proven, but it has. They work, there are thousands of pages of scientific backing for this out there on the interweb. Perhaps the negativity roots from the fact it has not been showcased in an LFT - understandable; however this is a pandemic that none of us forecasted. The compant didn't have this plan in their business forecasts, it has arisen and they have jumped at it and had to utilise help of a company with proven trackrecord in this realm.

Another, which is key to me, is the commercial relationships we have confirmed. We aren't now a lone soldier, we are a cog in an evergrowing machine; not the small cog either.

Lastly on CE M & CV. These are likely to come as one, if not with more. CV has been de-risked as we have ran an essentially parrelel test in terms of its requesits, and hit incredible figures. AS didn't have confidence of a larger scale study for no reason, and he won't sweat CE marking as it is essentially a formality. Any (unlikely) problems will have their fixes also.

Lastly, so we don't forget. The test works, it has been manufactured in its thousands and is currently being or is ready to snowball into the millions.

Time doesn't bother me, the SP is fluctuating around double the levels of the placing price along while ago - SP rarely tells us the true picture of worth but I'm quite sure we'd be staring at a gloomier number if this was all built on lies. It's a very tricky oppprtunity to take for, what was, a smaller company - and AVCT are now close to taking that opportunity (albeit after ca. a year) and running ahead of the pack. Whilst making some very handy friends along the way..

GLA. Enjoy your Easter holidays!

https://avacta.com/investors/avacta-regulatory-news-service/

(on the Avacta website under regulatory news service if link not working)

To sign up for RNS via e-mail. Instant distribution service.

Sure we will all have some nice bits of information dropping in our inbox within the next week. :-)

Completely agree. People pay a huge amount of weight to the direct correlation of SP & how good their investment is (LTH only, of course), it's fascinating to see people so astutely confident in their conviction with a blue screen yet drop into the red whilst the chart does what charts do - bad news, bad news leaked, perhaps I should look elsewhere.

Regarding the awaiting confirmation comment, re-reading the most recent RNS "Our next key milestone is full clinical validation and CE marking". Nit picking every word within an RNS isn't something I'd advise, although the one key part I'm taking from this: 'milestone' is encapsulating the pair. We don't know for sure but I think they are teeing up to release it as once.

VERY exciting times!

Jdt - I wish. I'm a sports trader by trade.

Investing is a new world to me in comparison to how exposed I have been to all in sports betting, but I see a sea of calmness in amongst the madness of investing. I find it quite refreshing even amidst the chaos that is LSE.

My ever-present decision, similar to my betting style, is to heavily research and ensure I keep an EV+ investment based on my intuition and all I have before me - never will someone's (outside of company news) opinion or comment without substantial information sway this. Pulling a psychological string saying 'a deadline has been missed in the past, it may happen again in the future/it's happening now' won't work for me. Too much has been de-risked for the timing to affect my confidence, the analytical data-set we announced and all collaborations (Mologic et more) are from rigorous testing & R&D respectively. We don't know more than them so that waxes lyrical about what's happening and the (lack of) risk we sit at.

The facts that I can see all point to a working test with AVCT twiddling their thumbs awaiting to announce the news they have been wanting to. There is risk but it is very minimal at this point, in my eyes.

A lot of the psychology at play with investing I have been living with for a long time, it's dressed up slightly different but it's still very similar. Right now there's a 'cash out' button looming for people, be they sitting on an underwater position or in profit - that cash-out button is looking ever larger. For me right now, it looks no different to how it did early 2020 when I invested into AVCT. Doesn't mean I'm right and it won't fail, it could - but I'm satisfied - if I wasn't I'd have sold out at the news of which I wasn't.

P.S. for any one bored, give this TED talk a watch. It's a little sided at gamblers more so than investors/traders, but the lessons from it are pretty fascinating and risk/reward is at play with every single decision in life. Risk Intelligence is the topic if you fancy a read, instead. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFDNLq5Po0c

GLA :-)

I'm absolutely gutted we have missed the boat with Lateral Flow Tests. AVCT have never met a deadline and they have missed yet another deadline of.. (checks notes and calendar.. "we anticipate will be around the end of this quarter ")..a couple of days in the future. Ah.

My position is set. Fundamentals don't change based on a day or two; nor does the global market requirement for LFT's. The product is essentially saleable from now (on basis of utilising Mologic's CE Mark which is next to no-risk), this further step (CV) is to cement confidence to the public that these things work. You can rest assured a lot of talks are going on from a commercial standpoint, and pen has already been put to paper on others.

The only basis of which de-rampers, which they are more than entitled to, have on the entire topic is 'deadlines' and 'time'. AVCT have done their job, the test is made, if we are a trading day late on a date (an 'around' x date, in fact) it matters not.

Enjoy it guys, you don't get many glaringly obvious opportunities like this. :-)

Really is a magnificent financial and technology affirming opportunity for the company isn't it. We already have access to a lot of manufacturing capability, we could increase this 50-fold and still sell every test with the right price-point. We would be talking of billions of revenue for AVCT. There may/will be other tests competing but the USP of Affimers I have yet to seen matched, until I do I'm not worried one iota and even if so, we should have a chunky war chest built by then.

Mentions of Medusa gunning for 100m a month (50m shorter term), BBI & ABDX, ODX(?), GAD. This is just some that we know are ready for our test(s) for certain, with a question mark on ODX. AS has mentioned a dozen other times that there are talks with other manufacturers so the party need not stop at these.

AVCT already have thousands of final tests made for the CV, the test works(!) and we are wise in carrying out a CV to an extensive level. It's a clever play to further validate the test before rolling out to millions of people in the general public - it's also such a security for manufacturers knowing the test they are making is a test they'll be happy to make for years to come and not need think about swapping allegiances. Also an easier TT for them.

Have a good week all, I think it's getting a lot better in a few days time.

A quite visible showing of the big man getting one over the little man. MM's were working some huge buys and managed to play into those trading around/weaker holders. This just goes to show, work with the substantial info you have to hand and not the SP - it will play games all day long.

Roll on the next few trading days, it's going to be a great ride! Beer tonight, and champagne over Easter (or just after!).

Baffyman,

It wasn't at all a criticism at a company and as I stated I know not anything about it (BRH test). My 'criticism' was at the potential correlation with a fall in the AVCT SP, to me a reader the size of a shoebox being compared to an LFT is like comparing your watermelon with my tangerine. The RNS reads very very vaguely, wha is the 40% improvement based on? Happy to be lectured here by the way, I'm intrigued by that RNS and how well it's gone down with the market. However this is AIM! Good luck with your investment and congrats on the 42%.

That BRH RNS is one of the oddest (and bordering unprofessional) that I have read in a while. It is attempting to side on the incredibly scientific to convolute investors seemingly, smashing the analytical side but chucking in incomparable/unsubstantiated comments such as 40% 'improvement' in sensitivity in comparison to currently marketed LFT's. Is that 40% better than 60% (84%)? Why not state your testing parameters and the results it showed.

Granted I don't know much about it, and at this stage am really not too bothered about 'competitors' as there has to be more than one branded test (a lot more) to get anywhere near to fulfilling the amount the world require- but there are a lot of questions I have about it. Odd.

Stopped reading at "Then we move to the jewel in the crown, this LFT test. At the moment it cant get the product validated. It will likely miss the UK tender deadline, one week to go.". Might be worth a little investigation into what exactly a Dynamic Purchasing Agreement is.

Ruane, J.P Morgan & plenty others will have a far wider reaching DD than yourself, I think if this was all a house of cards they wouldn't have a penny near the company.

Lastly, fundamentals are proven within our partnerships. The amount these company's pump into R&D and the sheer amount of DD they will put out before entering such heavy costing agreements is extensive, and we aren't talking small companies, either.

Anyway, good luck with your investments whatever they may be.

Hi Ray, I see your first post on this board was 15th January 2021. Looks to have been a SP of around 130p at that time, I'd like to be the first to congratulate you on your holding of AVCT, not far from bagging! Must have made a whack! Great stuff - although may be wise to look at selling your holding if you are worried about time-frames, a bird in hand and all that. If not, here's to an even higher rise for all of us including yourself. Would be well deserved given the time you spend on this board. Good luck to you and all!

Just gave this a re-listen and certainly calmed any worries (of which I don't have many, due to how rigorously the test has been evaluated to date). Just speaks through the process very clearly and with confidence, highlighting the importance of flagging only infectious and the importance of specificity. The final test is already being manufactured at high levels, this train is going to start moving very fast very soon.

https://vimeo.com/512866117

Anyone else excited for the feeling of shoving the gold standard of LFT's up your nostril soon? Careful which nostril you choose for those partial to a bit of party powder.. not sure AVCT will have tested efficacy for that scenario!

Disregarding any resentment of those ill-wishing upon AVCT, if and when this is out for consumer use, surely these same people will be wanting to stroke a few bogeys to get themselves into the pub, with confidence!? Not sure you'll be the life of the party having to go round the back of the pub to tonsil tickle with the swab whilst gagging your way in for a pint..

The SP aspect MT-LT is hugely exciting but putting that to the side for a moment - if this is to be a world-leading LFT on shelves taking into account all aspects (speed/cost/efficacy etc.) it's a huge stride in this pandemic if we can mass-produce, let's not down play it. Well done to any other companies if they are to bring similar/better to the market, there's space for billions of tests and they'll be used as often than toothbrushes around the world I bet.

Might buy myself a crate of AVCT LFT's to hold a house party rule-allowing.

Have a good week all.

Tanner Pharma were awarded a £64m contract (32x value) for Cassettes just 3 months ago - do seem to have a London based branch also. May just be a stop-gap until Mologic can provide to a level required.

https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W51/741015580

Roll on when we know the facts and I can get me an AVCT gold-standard LFT swab shoved up my nose to get me into the pub just 10 minutes later with a negative result! :-)

Worth scrolling to the bottom here for an up to date list of currently validated tests (non-LFD). Sounds irrelevant, and I understand they not LFDs, but just check the S/S of them, and check into the Validation Reports for each of them (reminder we posted pre-CE S/S of 96.7% and 100%
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/coronavirus-covid-19-serology-and-viral-detection-testing-uk-procurement-overview

Using a few examples: Horiba POCKIT. 95.75% sensitivity, 97.7% specificity. It uses a 21kg unit, needing full mains power and takes 1h30, only used by qualified lab tech professionals.

Now using one of the highest S/S in that of: Oxford Nanopore. The 'gold standard' of RNA RT-qPCR, using a collection method of brain/throat tickler to gather samples, on asymptomatic samples only returned specificity of 99.4% and 99.39% respectively. This collection methods, being PCR, takes up to 24 hours. Reminder that we hit 100% specificity, hopefully replicable clinically.

Arguably the most reliable test from alternate options: SAMBA II SARS-CoV-2 (POC) test: result takes around 1 hour 30. 98.8% (CI 95%) sensitivity, 100% specificity. Used on a large POC machine.

This isn't to mention the price difference in running these, it's obvious the other advantages to an efficient LFD.

It's unbelievable what we sit on as a product once validated shortly if we can stay near the S/S after clinical evaluation. Perhaps the cheapest option, the most versatile to conditions, most portable option (in comparison to POC), quickest also? Tuck the last few shares you can into your pockets sooner rather than later.

This post may serve nothing but a reminder to those needing such. Not only will our test(s) be desired, our harnessing magic bean in that of Affimers will be wanted everywhere to keep other tests to a level desired. Good week to all and apologies if any small discrepancies within my post, juggling with work!