Member Info for Sirius50

Yeah agreed I mean wtf does Warren Buffett know eh!? I mean it is not as though he has done much with or in his life is it.
Come to think of it, ball hooks to that bloke "God" too. (the clue is in the name innit, who does he think HE is lol) Making the frikin world in 7 days. I mean 7 days the lazy basta** why didn`t he take 3 days eh? Obviously soft soapin` all them angels, and sheep, and politicians too. Id iot God.

Historically yes, but trading now on a PE of 13.45 isn`t exactly cheap. IMHO there are better value assets out there - SLP for one. I suspect (like many others) I only hold this stock for the divi. When I exit stage left I hope it is not pursued by a bear. This year has been the mother-of-all-bear markets. Last 106 sessions:
Rank Index
0.11% FTSE AIM 100
0.10% FTSE TechMark 100
0.09% FTSE Small Cap
0.08% FTSE 250
0.01% FTSE All Share
0.00% FTSE 350
-0.02% FTSE 100
I tend to stick in 10% to play with using swings/trend with targets at gates: 1 week: 3%, 3 weeks: 5%, 8 weeks 7% and then if no joy I move to the buy-and-hold fund: 25% over a year or more, if not reached target. It is always nice to beat those targets of course but I try to avoid getting greedy and avoid the mistake of applying hindsight. Unlike others, I never set stop losses and I never crystallise a paper loss. I guess I`m fortunate in that I never put myself in a position where I am forced to sell and I never use margin.
S

Unclear where you get a reversal from that chart. (If anything, it points the other way as the red candle is bearish and engulfing.)
Unfortunately, I see nothing on the horizon to stop the rot.
Sentiment is only going one way. Cannot blame short sellers for this, they don`t control the market they just take a punt on margin, nothing more and nothing less.
What will be the catalyst to stop this IDK. (Sacking Looney would be something but others have different views.) If not that, I`d like to hear an alternative.
S

Market wants him gone.
This SP is a disgrace.
Look at IDP; up 18% on appointment of a NED who has put in £1M of his own cash to hold 12%
Looney needs to go. BP need to split - green and beautiful and old and ugly: 2 divisions. Clean sweep. New start. This rot won`t end until this clown is out and a new clear direction is not only announced but contains what he lacks: CONVICTION!
S

It is actually "all that glisters is not gold, [often have you heard that told]" still better than Jeremy Hunt misquoting Churchill`s blood, toil, tears, and sweat in his head-to-head with Boris last year.

For the traders out, there an interesting position on SOW. The daily chart shows tweezer bottoms, a doji yesterday, and inverted hammer today, all three reversal indicators coming together. Price closed at EUR 37.5 could be worth a few quick % wins in these hard-earned times! Earnings in 7 days adds to the interest.
S

https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/XMFkDvSh/
So much for the bullish hammer (hammers forming at the TOP of a rising trend are bearish indicators, not bullish) they are reversal signals.
Hammers at the bottom of a falling market, that`s bullish. I use and combine with a stochastic on the 20 for confirmation. I have hit 14/20 so far in last 2 months at a return of 3% up to 24%. 6 could yet go either way. Even if those 6 all fail, that is still a 70% hit rate.
I have IAG in my buy and hold fund (with a 2-year time horizon).
GLA
S

IDK but maybe the fact that "money is free" may have something to do with it...?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOT064ngTJQ
at 1.25 (FT`s US Finance Editor)

I didn`t allow for the SP in GBP - doh! So with A = 62p, B = 17.88%, C= 38.4p, D = 0.2917 (29.17%). A/C =D/B
A is the SP. B is the Discount rate. C is the Book Value ps. D is the Return on Equity.
Shares Outstanding: 287,365,304. Net Assets (Equity): £110,211,376 . Net Profit: £32,147,018
Rate: USD/GBP: 0.78416
So a discount rate/cost of capital of 17.8% aligns approx. with your 20%. This makes it easier for me to consider selling. Not saying I will but...
S

Hi R
With a risk free rate of 7%, I agree 10% is low.
20% puts SLP more or less at fair value (71.2p).
I guess I did not appreciate such a high discount rate for SA.
(Your point about Sibanye is noted and thanks for that.)
S

What discount rate do holders apply when assessing fair value of SLP based on current data?
So I`m looking at: price (A), discount rate (B), book value (C), and return on equity (D).
A/C = D/B
A, C, and D are known variables. B is a random variable and a function of A. In other words, more risk appetite and the discount rate falls leading to higher equity prices and vice versa (obviously more risk = more reward.)
When I plug the numbers in the discount rate for SLP is 27%!
Assuming a very high discount rate of 10% reflecting the current economic climate the fair value of SLP is 142p
Just wondering what others think.
Thanks and GLA
S

https://www.tradingview.com/x/qay5kb6b/
All the signs are there: Bullish Harami cross and slow stochastic on the 20.
Shame I`m not in this, and not on T212 and bu***** if I`m paying HL 24 bucks in costs.
GLA
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Chill? Take the plank out of your own eye etc.
Too much emotion there, you`re on tilt as they say in Vegas.
If you don`t like it - leave....Hmm, that's what I expect over on the SYME BB not here.
But I will take on board what you say.
S

It is fab that Rho and Pal are at all-time high levels but what goes up always comes down. And then what...?
Is SLP a one trick pony? Is that why is has not yet breached (for any lengthy period) 70p?
So do those who have a big stake here as LTHs (as I do) intend to exit (if that happens..[when]) and then buy back in?
Incidentally, what did you chaps think of the FD? I wasn't impressed - especially with the "aren't you glad we didn`t hedge" comment. A cheap shot, in a rising market she couldn't lose. Let`s see what the position is under pressure...
S

GF
if..my fave poem. Also:
if "ifs and "ans" were pots and pans, there`d be no need for tinkers hands"
"I`ve topped up" - that means now...not back in the day, when this was at 0.0005. Now, ...means 0.5p.
It`s not difficult. I understand you want a wish to come true (and I sincerely hope it does for you). For all of you.
This is a "paid" BB. If you cannot see that, then I really, really, wish you luck.
The veneer will finally start to peel next January when the accounts are published and if the cash flow statement cannot hide the truth. I hope it is a good truth. I hope we see binding contracts instead of MOUs and " subject to contract" statements and all of the other talk. Talk, as we all know, is cheap. AZ has to deliver. I hope he does.
When I read idiotic postings like the OPs (and the fake accounts that support such nonsense) I know I have confirmation that I am in the wrong place (even for a momentum stock). Too many kids watching "The Wolf of Wall Street" lol
Hopefully, this gets back to 0.55p and then exit stage left (hopefully not pursued by a bear)
Good luck.
S

Uh-huh...10M shares at GBX 0.5 means you just spent 50 grand. What are you, a millionaire? Investing in penny-stocks. Right, cos that is about as credible as Johnny Depp`s ex is about to find out. How old are you, all of about...12?
FFS, It is dreck like that that gets me out of here quicker than a porkpie at a bar mitzvah.
Over and out.
S

By my calcs, if you hold 7,000 shares you have 7,000 rights. At (current) ex-rights price of [133.4]p. the total value of your rights is £5,320. If you sold 4,367 rights that would give proceeds of £3,319.
The 2,633 remaining rights buys 3950 new shares for a subscription cost of £3,318.

As for number 2, say I sell half of my rights in order to be able to exercise the other half at 84. Once I sold the first half, would the money be available straight away so I can exercise the other half? Or it takes some time to get credited to the account?

IDK. However, the risk you point out (as I understand it - a time lag) is not a reason to preclude this option from being viable - if it were, the RI process would be broken. So this is one for your broker to confirm with a call or email but I`m confident they will confirm this will not be an issue (no pun intended!)
S

Options...
1. buy all the rights by :cash+ Sell some of the ordinary shares we have
2: buy the rights by :cash+ sell some of the rights
3. Sell all rights and invest again (does itnhave any benefits?)
4. Sell all the rights
Which one will you go for?

As Calamari states (he/she has been a real boon for many on this BB - very sound and generous knowledge shared)
4. you could simply take the cash and spend it how you like
3. For me this yields 4,863 shares at 203p average for this option
2. Not sure what you mean by "buy rights" I`m assuming you mean exercise your rights to buy IAG at 84p if so, for me this yields 4,859 shares at 185p for this option
1. I`m thinking you mean that you fund the purchase of some of the available rights with a combination of selling some of your rights and selling some of your holding? For me I won`t do this as it crystallises a loss (as opposed to a paper loss only).
For me, the 2nd option is the best. I will sell a portion of my rights to fund the exercise of the remaining rights to buy IAG at 84p. That way, no new capital injections; no selling of any of existing holding (which would otherwise crystallise a loss from a current paper loss of approx. 19%).
Then I hold for 2/3 years.
S

As always, it depends. Are you risk averse? Are you sitting on a paper loss? If you are, selling part of your holding will crystallise that loss. (That is something I am prepared to do if I do not have to.)
So if you want to exercise some of your rights to buy the shares at 84p then you need to sell some of your rights to fund that trade if not using external capital.
The rights become tradable (from memory) on Thursday. The number to sell will vary:
No of shares No of rights Ex-RP SubPrice RightsPrice Total Rights
1,000 1,000 £ 1.3435 £ 0.84 £ 0.76 £755
SELLS: 62.5% per cent of rights = 625
PROCEEDS: £472*
Remaining rights: 375
New Shares 563
Cost: £473
The proceeds and costs align to give the number of rights to sell to fund the trade. *nb rounding errors.
S