Member Info for Sirius50

Zion SPC – Access Fund SP
Total number of Ordinary Shares: 36,611,361
Total %: 16.64%
Richard Griffiths and controlled undertakings
Total number of Ordinary Shares: 21,778,926
Total %: 9.90%
Denis O’Brien
Total number of Ordinary Shares: 15,750,000
Total %: 7.16%
Credit Suisse
Total number of Ordinary Shares: 14,930,358
Total %: 6.78%
Kite Lake Capital Management (UK) LLP
Total number of Ordinary Shares: 13,500,000
Total %: 6.13%
YF Finance Limited
Total number of Ordinary Shares: 11,009,254
Total %: 5.00%
Hadron Capital LLP
Total number of Ordinary Shares: 10,830,000
Total %: 4.92%
Athos Capital Limited
Total number of Ordinary Shares: 9,000,000
Total %: 4.09%
Directors Shareholding
Ian Cloke – 1,733,000 Ordinary Shares (0.79%)
Paul McDade – 2,267,000 Ordinary Shares (1.03%)
Gavin Wilson – 2,681,666 Ordinary Shares (1.22%)
from
https://afentraplc.com/investor-share-capital/

This isn`t a SPAC as such as the cash was sitting with SEY long before Paul and Ian showed up.
I could be wrong but is Denis O` Brien this chap....?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denis_O%27Brien
If so, we are all in good company.
S

IMHOThere is no right way, no magic bullet, no Nirvana. Peter Lynch e.g. talked a lot about having only 5 stocks that but didn`t stop him from owning a fair slice of the whole S&P index when he managed Magellan with hundreds of holdings to his name. It is easy to pick the 10-baggers after the event (and after 10 or 20 years. )
It is like salt and pepper - a matter of taste. There is no right or wrong way. If you don`t diversify and followed on the tail-coats of Buffett's two nightmare plays e.g. - Dexter Shoe and Precision Castparts they lost ($3.5Bn) and ($11Bn) respectively, you would have been wiped out. So much for non-diversification and that is why you don`t put all of your eggs in one basket.
Munger also talks about why settle for average meaning ONLY the 10% S&P returns (!) but from what I see and read most hedge funds would kill for that year on year.
If you want "spectacular" then agreed don`t do it just be prepared for the sleepless nights. I value my health and dont need to adopt such risks ! But bravo to those that do. I admire base jumpers in a similar way until their canopy fails to deploy and I`m thinking - yeah well, what did you expect in the long run.
S

Debt aside (SLP don`t have any) risk is, it leads to interest rate rises. That has an effect on the risk free rate (it goes up). This in turn will push the discount rate up. This is used in a DCF to value businesses. As the discount rate goes up the net present value of the businesses future cash flows comes down. Growth stocks and assets (where cash flows are often negative and the market is valuing -in the promise of future growth) are hit the earliest and the hardest. This is why tech stocks sell off.
Today, however, everything sold off. My portfolio was down 3%.
It might have been the crypto assets crash causing panic-selling and contagion. Nothing in the fundamentals of SLP to worry about that to my knowledge. Their rock-solid (for now) future cash flows appear bolted-on.
Still massive value.
Another buy for me, slowly accumulating. Having 100% or even a 1000% gain is great but on what stake?
I`d rather have 50% return on 30k than a 100% return on only 10k. Fictive numbers.
As always DYOR and GLA
S

14 - 13.9 - is the 0.1 for the costs of the administrator?! I like your attention to detail East.
Still don`t get why Hadron selling out at this price on the cusp of great things unless they know something we don`t which I doubt ...could be forced sale but again just speculation.
I`m in (for me) big here. It is not the end of the world is I lose 25 grand. I still have my faculties lol :)
S

You mentioned Byron before Who are they (is he/she)?
S

bot attack - made me chuckle
though not funny seeing a seething red of paltry sells
S

Top up time added another 26k vol.
Agreed.
S

Not to be trusted - "Recent Share Trades for Afentra (AET)"
"Buy" showing as a "sell"
S

I take it Hadron are an II?
If so and if this is such a golden opportunity, why are they selling?
S

The dangling carrot of FCEVs at the end was very seductive, opening up a huge growth opportunity.
Thanks for posting
S

Me too.
Care to disclose who "the couple of others" are Mark?
:)
s

Have to be a bit careful with betas as a lot of stocks will show up as negative which is implying that such holdings will actually de-risk ones portfolio and this is utter nonsense when e.g. GME were bouncing up and down like a Musk-rat on acid the reason being that the falls and highs were not correlated with the index - the reasons were extrinsic and happened due to (well we all know why it happened). The point is just looking at a chart of GME and seeing a beta of -0.5 one might falsely assume they were very low risk volatility but nothing could be further from the truth.
The beta isn`t that important in a valuation; the elephant in the room (well there are 2 - (i) the discount rate; and (ii) the terminal value which a lot of M&A banks use a pricing multiple thus not really being a true DCF valuation at all.) I use a cautious approach and use proxy between the risk free rate and the local GDP estimate which gives a result which if one were to use the pricing multiple method aligns to a low PE multiple of around 5. SLP are in a high risk sector and South Africa too. They are incorporated in Bermuda and are on AIM. If they were incorporated in London and listed on the LSE main market I`d be happier. On a positive note, the equity markets have been red all week but PGMs are holding firm.
On this SLP dip I intend to go in heavy again and in doing so break a rule about % of holdings. But without conviction there is nothing and we are all agreed here, SLP is still undervalued so lots of upside.
S

Over the last half century, the compounded annual gain of the S&P 500 (the best performing index in the world) has returned 10.2%. Arguably, the world`s most successful investor - Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway - has returned 20%. I would be happy to meet in the middle at say 15%. Let`s not be greedy.
So we will use that as the discount rate.
Inflation will likely grow by at least 2% this year.
Unfortunately SLPs growth over the next 5 years will be less than inflation and looking at -2% PER ANNUM. Yes, I`m sorry to shout and inform you all of this but this is the truth.
Worse still, over the next 5 years after that, the decline will be -1% PER ANNUM. Yep and then with a measly less than inflation +risk free rate/ terminal multiple of x 2 (PE of 2...yes "TWO") to close out this valuation (in perpetuity) we reach a woeful 149p share price.
That`s right. Sorry fellas, but Mr Market as we know never errs so there you have it... 149p on 20/21 earnings of USD 111.5m
OR...
Could it be that Mr Market has this very, very, wrong?!
Negative growth?!
15% discount rates?! Hell, even with S&P 500 (10.2%) we have 185p and that is still assuming negative growth!
Love it. To all those who r new here who may be do not get my admittedly lame joke, SLP is so still so very undervalued.
Sylvania...how could one not love than name?
S

As the inflation-fears-led-sell-off of tech and other high growth assets continues, this can only be good news for SLP`s rock-solid cash flows. To be fair there are risks. Pricing power, well, they don`t have any - in the sense of being tied to PGMs market-rates.
But then there is moat. And it doesn`t really come much bigger or wider than this one.
Even at 150 one could (in a parallel universe where Elon Musk wants to go to his Doge Moon in a Pt rocket) easily imagine Goldman or MS laying out a case of 500+ based upon a story of diminishing supply, increasing demand, with a discount rate of 11.5% based on a USD T-bond risk free rate of 1.7% and an equity risk premium of say 8% with a beta of 1.5.
And if you think I`m joking well of course I am...Elon with a Pt helmet, I means come on, he wouldn't be seen dead in one.
But I can wish :)
S

Step changes in value, using leverage and prepayments, contingent consideration etc

Okay so leverage is debt and that is hardly a bonus. Forgive my ignorance (I`m not an accountant). prepayment I took to be just paying e.g. the utilities bills in advance and contingent consideration (you mean upon an acquisition) paying in shares or earn out?
I`m on board. Heavily. No 1 holding. So not digging anyone, just interested is all.
Thanks
S

I believe we will have done 400% + by that point.

(Over 2 years, I hope you are right. Fingers crossed.)

200% return p.a...based on what?
S

Hi Ross
This is long term. (Investing.)
If you want short term trades, don`t look here, look at e.g. ITM: 11.3% today off the low of yesterday. (Didn`t sell - more to come) :)
In regards of SLP - onwards and upward!
Buy and hold for 12-18 months min.
Just sit back, buy the fk dips and chill.
Patience is the name of this game. She is a beauty as Stoodio keeps (rightfully) reminding us.
My suggestion is listen to him; he has been here from near the start (and is still here). He is right; to do that requires cajones de piedre! (balls of stone) :)
GLA
S

And he responded (within an hour): [ I told you he was Quality]

PE ratios are notoriously unstable, and if commodity prices drop and earnings collapse, PE ratios will move towards infinity before becoming not meaningful. I just report the aggregated PE for the sector, and if a lot of companies in the sector are losing money, the PE ratio will rise to levels that seem absurd. The answer is to not take issue with the PE ratio but to not use it in these sectors. Go with EV to Sales or EV to Invested Capital or EV to EBITDA to get more meaningful valuations.

So there you have it !
S

Thanks
I pinged him for a clarification.
Will update if he responds!
S