Member Info for Sirius50

Some of those on the list yes (not all). I`d be interested to know what discount rate you use and your growth assumptions.
I don`t use ttm earning figures but normalised.
Everyone is just guessing of course ..."It is useless to try to predict future earnings from any single past
earnings growth ratio":
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1962.mp24004001.x
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THS - their growth rate (net income) non-cash assets is looking healthy:
Net Income $m (current year) (E] 151,326,000
Book Value of equity (prior year) (G) 320,829,000
Cash Balance (end of prior yr) (H) 49,293,000
Income from Cash Balance (F) 1,120,000
Capex (A) 79,500,000
Depreciation (B) 62,000,000
Increase in working cap (C) 111,438,000
Total debt (D) 43,025,000
Equity Reinvestment = A - B + C - D 85,913,000
Non-cash net income = (E] - (F) 150,206,000
Non-cash book equity = (G) - (H) 271,536,000
Reinvestment Rate (E53/E54) 57.20%
Non-cash ROE (E54/E55) 55.3%
Expected growth rate: 31.6%
I feel I should add but highly exposed to PGMS as it is with SLP at 25% of portfolio.
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I meant 40% of his holding: (9.9 -5.9 = 4)/9.9 = 40%.
Sit and hold then.
How do people plan to move when this pops? Hold, sell? Top slice? And if the third option, keep the profit in and bank the stake or keep the stake in and bank the profit? Always interested to hear other views, but hey getting ahead of myself here. it is early days.
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So now we know - Richard Griffiths dumping 40%.
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Bang on the 20 Mark
https://www.tradingview.com/x/wUaE9VtH/
Oversold indeed and more yet to come perhaps hold fire before loading up tomorrow?
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Velo is right -listed to him (and Stud) last year Rh was (for the month of June) $8,475 average.
This year Rh is $22,928 (June to date).
Rh is 60 (ish)% of SLP`s basket price in terms of revenue despite being only 12% in terms of processed ounces.
Last year`s earnings (net) were $41m. This year I`m seeing $115m. Now that the Norilsk mine flood (led to severe deficit) is out the way and Rh looks to be holding firm (still in deficit only not so much) the fundamentals are still as strong as ever.
See this as another opportunity given by the market to load up :)
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It`s simple, if Rh holds 20k or above this is as near margin of safety as it gets. See you at 200p :)
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Indeed!
Velo forewarned us of the likely drop and so far, bang on.
And Bangrak (see what I did there:) pointed out that it is all about the Rh. I tend to agree.So far it is holding up above $20k (which was forecast in the presentation IIRC).
The growth here isn`t coming from non-cash assets obviously. The expected growth rate in 18,19 and 20 was -4.3%, -4.2% and -1.3% respectively. That is because of their low reinvestment rate.
To be expected I suppose, they have limited options in terms of growth. Provided the basket price holds, then 200p is pretty much nailed on. After, who knows. I`d like to see the projects developed and until that time I will start to look at exit around 200.
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Thanks
- a bit crap.
I agree with you.
Maybe a quick escalation to Mr Mc Dade, see what is going on?

You`re assuming they will not or they have not (responded)?

It is!
Basket price for this Quarter from 1/4/21 to date 6E JMAT
http://www.platinum.matthey.com/prices/price-charts
= $3,912
Hope the Escom power issues have not impacted them too much
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Have you contacted them for an explanation?
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There is no mistake:
“month end closing SP's: SLP: Aug = 170.9, Oct = 160.6, Nov = 176
Selling at end of August […] Re-buying at beginning of November and holding through to Jan/Feb 2022 and sell again.”
So assuming two portfolios with buy price of 70p:
buy and hold through to Jan` 22 and selling at 200 = 185.71%: 200 – 70 = 130. 130 /70 *100 = 185.71%
Your strategy above:
sell end August: 170.9 – 70 = 100.9. 100.9/70 *100 = 144.14%
Buying back beginning of November (not end) must be the end of October SP of 160.6
Buy at 160.6 sell at 200.
200 – 160.6 = 39.4.
39.4/160.6 *100 = 24.53%
144.14% + 24.53% = total return of 168.67% (would be a little lower as I have not included transaction costs).
So that is 185.71% as against 168.67% a difference of 17%.
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There is more than 1 way to skin a cat! I`m unclear why a short/med movement in oil spot will affect a target valuation. It would be reckless to use current or last ttm earnings to plug in as the base for DCF - the base number upon which growth assumptions are predicated would be on normalised earnings (to avoid spikes).
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niL_h6kYPbk

who doesnt love a good story?! AZ`s marvelous medicine. oh well, in the absence of any numbers, there`s always the STORY!
Clearly that is all your`e gonna get. Profit be it EBITDA - that`s earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortisation (I know it is a long word - sorry about that), EBIT - no da, or even good old fashioned net profit, whatever, there does not appear to be any, no financial statements, okay, but at least we have a story, a very good story...AZ`s Marvellous Medicine. in fact... Yep. Soon his head will be sticking outta da roof like grandmas.
Love AZ. He`s da best!
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The 7-year EBITDA [...] I`m told there are approx. 45,000 listed plcs in the world. Do any of them have better metrics than those I wonder?
well, I found one, Calloway Golf 6 yr CAGR 1990 to 1996 = 102% and then within a year the SP had gone backwards by 75% over the next couple of years. Shows the dangers of relying on past performance to predict future growth.
Having said that, I`m still confident on SLP outlook. Bouyant demand in PGMs for next few years. Bound to be the odd wobble with PGMs at ATHs - obviously not sustainable, does not have to be. We`re still rocking and rollin` :)
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Anybody have these to hand?
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Hi Velo - assuming your average is 70p:
- if you held all the way through to Jan `22 and closed out your position at 200p, your profit would be 185%;
- if you sell (end August) and buy back (beginning Nov) at the f/cst SPs, and then close out (as above) your profit falls by 17% (not including costs) to 168%.
I`d understand this strategy if there was a risk of the 200p not being met but buying in again at beginning of Nov seems to imply the opposite? In short, you either believe the 200p will be met or you don`t. If you do, then it is more profitable to you to hold. I`m clearly missing something!
Thanks
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Rh still falling daily -$21, 750 atow. And Pt too. Sentiment is clearly soft atm.
Yes I agree with that save that I feel mid to high 20s was an unreasonably high figure - toppy as stated and beyond all consensus estimates of 20k forecast for `21. So anything around or above 20 is a bonus for me.
Even if it drops to 16k, that`s still > 8x the spot price of Au. I mean, come on!
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The 7-year EBITDA CAGR is 45.6%.
The 6-year Net Profit CAGR is 100% (year 6 I`ve assumed net earnings of $108m - we already know Qs1, 2, and 3 so Q4 isn`t going to be way off this number when added)
I`m told there are approx. 45,000 listed plcs in the world. Do any of them have better metrics than those I wonder?
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