Member Info for Sirius50

H1 results to be released end of month - I think that is correct?
We know they are likely to be huge.
Boo recently reported 40% rev growth and share price dropped about 10%
Today AO reported 67% top line growth and the share price fell and this is the key bit the sell off started 8 sessions ago from a high of 440 to 354 atow.
It is clear from these (and others too) the gains were built into the SP prior to announcement.
When SLP report their results the same thing will happen - why would it not? Bearing this in mind will the holders here exit and then buy back in or just hold and suffer the inevitable drop in price - albeit and hopefully of course a temporary one?
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https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/XMFkDvSh/

platinum futures (April) tracking on an upwards channel
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Just to clarify, those are not net profit numbers, they are FCF numbers for THS and they are not mine; I am just reading off a screen for THS at Trading View:
https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/XMFkDvSh/
Maybe they have them wrong IDK.
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ST of IC has target price of 145p so seeing a 45% upside from here on. I`m presuming he thinks that is fair value price and he would sell or take profits. Either way 45% return from this point is on any view a fabulous performance.
I`m tempted to go in heavier and make this number 1 holding.
Currently light at 12,500 shares.
Others views welcome. (Thanks.)
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Apologies I should have said - Free Cash Flow.

https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/XMFkDvSh/

Ticker 17 18 19 20 TTM
THS 30.4m 31m 17.5m (790k) (843k)
SLP 6.7m 5.6m 7.2m 42m 42m

THS trade at 29% higher! Go figure?!
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F
They get paid for their goods in USD and then convert to ZAR.
A same notional basket of 1 dollar yields 25% less ZAR from April to now: 18.9 then as opposed to 15.1 now. This is the effects of a strong Rand and why it isn`t beneficial for exporters.
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It is not intended to be.
All I did was state factual forex movements with fictive numbers not intended to represent actual SLP earnings to show what happens when a domestic currency strengthens on export sales.
How many time do we hear "the pound fell today and exporters are happy as a consequence" and how many people really understand what that means?
Yes, the basket price has increased to more than off-set the exchange rate risk. If it hadn't both now and in the future I would not be invested here.
The fact remains though this is a real risk and a 25% drop due to forex ought to be mitigated. Do you not think so?

In April 2020, 1 USD bought 18.975 South African Rand (ZAR). That is the same as $10m buys ZAR 189.75m and if I have to pay all of my buy-side costs in ZAR (and assuming a 10% margin) gives me ZAR 1.897m profit.
In December 2020, 1 USD buys 15.105 ZAR. Or, $10m buys ZAR 151.05m and if I have to pay all of my buy side costs in ZAR (and assuming a 10% margin) gives me ZAR 1.510m profit.
Profits down 25% purely on the exchange rate fluctuation. (Note to self: when I see the ZAR/USD price trending up from bottom left to top right it is not particularly good!)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rl8d0tcg/
To all of the actual (or would-be) Finance Directors out there, how would or how should or (how are) SLP mitigate(ing) this risk?
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SP

Muchas Gracias TBTT.
I don`t really follow the logic that the dip might be linked to fund managers taking profit at year end as if the spot price is maintained (as it is, more or less) then they would mark-to-market anyway.
On the other hand, a butterfly flaps its wings somewhere and a domino falls and then the next, and before you know it, we are down (atow) by 9%, then I can see the inclination to close a winning position.
That is just fine with me. Looking across the market to try to find value and SLP still for the moment outshines everything else so I will be going in heavier on the rosy forecast for early 21.
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Dumb question TBTT and forgive my sloppiness but do you know off the top of your head when is the ex cum dividend date to take advantage of the special dividend as I agree this is a buying opportunity and wanted to gauge the deadline as it were.
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Roger that Sotolo.
(Nice one!)
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Annual average capex from 2014 to 2019 is $64m (according to TradingView) (2019 = $73m.)
Berenberg pricing capex at "materially above" prior expectations of: $225m in 2021, $195m in 2022 and $175m in 2023.
Obviously a significant difference of 4x.
What does this BB think is CEY`s BAU capex spend is (historical and moving forward)?
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Depends which MA: simple, weighted, or exponential. It`s 59 on the 200 WMA.
I concur with the Phil Oakley book. It is the best I have read. However, he himself said this very recently:
https://twitter.com/philjoakley/status/1332978423938101249
So you know it is going to be of value!
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Thanks R.

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Agreed @S!
@L: I use FCFps rather than EPS but like all ratios the denominator can be manipulated thus leading to smoke n mirrors: 1/3 - 33% becomes 1/2 - 50% - the "1" (earnings) hasn't changed but the entity appears more profitable.
The risk free rate and ERP are manageable. It is how to handle growth of course! One year out is probably "known known". Two years out becomes "known unknown". Three and more and its "unknown unknown" territory!
Interestingly, I looked at Prof. Damodaran`s valuation spreadsheet. Much of it is (I confess) I above my pay-grade but there are interesting features e.g. the risk associated with sectors/sub-sectors (there are 96 of them listed). At the top: Semi-Conductor Equipment (with a 13.3 % cost of equity. As a comparator, Oil/Gas Exploration Production is 11.5%, Metals & Mining: 10.8%). The sector with the highest RoE surprised me too: Restaurant and Dining with 42%.
This demonstrates the dangers of applying general principles. Those numbers clearly must have been pre-CV19 so are not much use in the sense of being reliable. Nonetheless he valued Boeing in March this year on a 10-yr DCF at $202.55 ps pretty much spot on (at today`s price) It was around
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Hi All - have any of you modelled SLP using DCF and if so, over what time period, and at what growth rates? I used a 20% discount rate, with 15% growth next year, then 10% Y2 and then assumed a fall in the market - 3% for next 5 years and 1% as long term growth rate - terminal growth rate.
Value per share = 215p

Leaky meaning what?
I`d written off my 30% loss so to get back with a 0.7% profit in 1 day is wholly unexpected.
Will MW hang around now he has got back his losses?
We will see.
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One swallow does not a summer make. It`s a less than 1% blue day!
The last meaningful rally was August 3. BP rose 10.43% over the course of 8 sessions closing on 12 August at 311p
It has been a steady walk down since.
So no, on the evidence of this 1-day close, how can anyone call this as the "bottom"?! That is plainly absurd.
The slow stochastic is narrowing to a buy signal.
Speculators will be honing in for a quick in out 10% and who knows what happens thereafter.
Or results could be worse than anticipated and the drop continues.
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Also struggling

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