Member Info for Sirius50

"everyone hurry to buy cheap price"??
Half an apple at 10p is not cheaper than a whole apple at 20p.
Shares at 130p are at no more value than they were last week at the close at 195p.

Looked on-line, but could not find one so made my own if anyone wants it (excel)

No of shares No of rights TERP SubPrice RightsPrice Tot Rights (£)
3,110 4,665 1.30 0.84 0.46 £2,146
SELLS: 73% per cent of rights = 3,405
PROCEEDS: £1,567
Remaining: 1,260 rights
New Shares 1,889
Cost: £1,587

When the "proceeds" and the "Cost" align you have your % rights sell. (You might have to adjust at the final few pounds.)
Assumes no additional capital contributes to the purchase price.
My reasoning, if I had £4k of capital to invest, I would not put it into IAG at the moment (as there are better, less risky alternatives IMHO)
To those that do however - GLA
S

Hi Bobbins -
"One old share allows you to purchase 1.5 new shares" - agreed. I am using "new share" as defined in the RNS i.e. at the subscription price of 84p for existing holders:
[...] International Consolidated Airlines Group [...] today announces a fully underwritten capital increase with pre-emptive subscription rights to raise gross proceeds of €2,741 million (the "Capital Increase") through the issuance of 2,979,443,376 new shares in IAG (the "New Shares"). [..]. For each existing share of IAG, its holder is entitled to one subscription right and 2 subscription rights are required to subscribe for 3 New Shares."
S

Hi TimH:
If I take up option (1): full allocation, and buy 4,665 new shares @ 84p = £3,918.60 capital outlay. If I the sell the same for 130p = £6,064. The difference is £2,145
Option (2): sell all of my rights: 4,665 x 46p = £2,145.
It puts me in the same position except the difference between options (1) and (2) is that I don`t have the burden of having to find nearly £4K of additional capital on a high risk turnaround play.
So, I am minded to use the capital from the selling of my rights - the £2,145 - some of it, or all of it, to purchase new shares at 84p. The question I have not yet answered is to what extent: 100%, 50%, or none at all.
To me, I don`t want to put in any more additional capital into IAG. That is the bottom line come what may. The approach above (to me) is the best compromise in this position.
S

HTC - yes agreed. I feel the obvious point here is that the cash is needed short term for liquidity. I don`t buy the "we will use the cash to gobble up other airlines" and emerge leaner and stronger that`s pie in the sky (no pun intended). This is survival mode. For that reason and as we head into winter I see the SP falling from 1.30 over the short to medium term before rising which is why I am holding shares and not selling. But I won`t shell out another £4k on this investment to take up an additional 4.5k shares discounted or not. One option: to sell my rights either in whole and use the cash (about £2k) to buy back in when the SP falls (as I believe it will) or in part Then, hold for 2/3 years.
However, I don`t see the SP falling to 84p. For that reason, "tail-swallowing" seems the best approach - take [half ]of the rights cash - (about £1k) top up with another 1k (from other sources) and with the 2k buy another 2,000 or so new shares.
S

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Y53MvLHx/
Tweezer bottom bullish - the lower wicks are staggered; are you looking at a day chart? I do agree, bullish candle however.
GLA
S

Have you contacted your broker on this point?

S

J
The 1,000 share calc needs to be at market price (not cost price).

S

U.S. Producer Price Index maybe stronger than forecast = bullish may have sparked some action.

Only have a small holding here. If I take full entitlement, I shell out £4k. I`m already underwater (like most I expect) by 21%. So to break even after spending £4k, this has to hit 153.4p
Hmmm... let`s hear what IAG plan to do with the cash.
GLA
S

I`m hoping this pull-back is a combination of market down and tree shaking.
The numbers for SLP speak for themselves: CROCI: 34%; Cash profit per share: 14.5p; Cash conversion rate of 107%.
This is a g8t stock and a g8t board.
S

"This shareholder wrote: “A large portion of the cash is held in ZAR and with the recent weakening of the ZAR to the USD, a significant impact on the USD reported cash balance going forward will be had.” This is correct and is a fact of life for a business operating in South Africa. This impact does work both ways though! "
No it does not explain why you can't deposit the funds in a USD or GBP denominated bank account in South Africa or actively hedge part of the ZAR exposure. And also, you missed the first part of the post where I referred to the results as MIND BLOWING.

-100% agree with that response which offers no explanation. Take the benefit of a stronger USD on exports paid in USD and then give the proceeds back upon conversion back to ZAR?? Did you see the 6.5M or so "hit" in the accounts in the cash flow statement?
S

Hi Bangrak
The average basket price was $2015, today its $2827 as they have revised the prill split to 12.5% Rh, 25.5% Pall and 61.7% platinum, so plenty more to come here.

QQ: For Y/E 30.06.20, the "4E" grade makes up 90% of the revenue. From your numbers, Au - the other constituent of the 4E basket is is 0.3% Where are you getting the Pl: 61.7%/ Au: 0.3% split from as I dont see this in the report. Or is it other data source(s)?
Thanks
S

Fabulous performance to be applauded and what a joke the shenanigans this morning I mean FFS as if. Excuse my French.
So cheap this as others far more knowledgeable about this stock have said.
I`d be happy with 10% cash yield (would price SLP at 144p)
Happy days.
GLA

Addictive. Irrational. Emotional. All the reasons NOT to invest!
You are not alone. A £10k capital investment, if this hits £1 is millionaire status. That upside is life-changing. The allure is obvious.
The problem is the downside risk. I don`t want to lose 10k. Especially if it is other people`s money. It is one thing to be single and no responsibilities. Take a punt if you wish. You know the risks.
It is another thing entirely if there are people depending upon you. That is a much harder call.
For short term, this is a momentum stock and it is hard to see how one can lose.
For long term, the rewards could be huge if AZ delivers. Then, it becomes a tough decision as to when to exit.
One thing is for sure. You are not alone!
GL

To the OP:
Tesla IPO`d 6 July 2010 and closed at USD 3.84. Was that "too late to get in"?
Fast forward September 2013... it hit $39. MUST have been too late to get in?!
Err... well fast forward again to June 2017 and touching $80...still too late?
Feb 2020 - $175
July 2020 - $300
Currently - $418 and this is after the 5 for 1 stock split lol
is it too late? if SYME delivers even half of what AZ promises,well what do you think?!
On the point about risk, as others have stated, only risk what you can afford to lose. Be patient.
Get rich slow else get poor quick.
GL

You misunderstand - I was not quoting you lol I was pointing out that Share Talk took part of my convo with you - my words not yours virtually word for word. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery so they say.
Seriously though, I`m glad AZ confirmed my thoughts. That piece of the jigsaw fits.
Chill.

Wednesday 02/09/20
me to apunter2 @ 01.03
" Not sure B77 fits as that scenario is akin to a car manufacturer/dealership relationship. Not my understanding of this model . Also with consignment, legal title does not pass until the dealer makes an onward sale. Here, legal title does pass under the originating contract and although I have not read a template agreement (I did ask IR)
[I WOULD IMAGINE THAT THE OWNER COMPANY SETS UP SOME FORM OF DISCRETIONARY TRUST ARRANGEMENT WITH SUPPLY ME AS BENEFICIAL OWNER THAT ALLOWS SUPPLY ME TO TAKE THE BENEFIT OF THE INVENTORY AS COLLATERAL/SECURITY FOR THE ISSUE OF THE BONDS.]

ST: Does the owner company set up some form of discretionary trust arrangement with Supply@ME as beneficial owner that allows Supply@ME to take the benefit of the inventory as collateral/security for the issue of the bonds?
AZ: Yes...

Think I will sue for plagiarism lol.
Still, glad to have been of some help to Share Talk :)
GLA

Also, I did not refer to para (A) in B66 as don`t think it fits as well as (B) does which appears more aligned... but even if you are right, the net result is the same, the lease is recognised on the balance sheet, it is not de-recognised from the balance sheet.

on 2019 numbers. Not bad!

* calc by owner earnings of £12.92m with 271.6m shares outstanding

It is not my view, it is the view of accountants I have talked to. You obviously think you are right in going with AZ and maybe you are. Time will tell and I welcome a statement from a financial institution or a published case study (hopefully soon.