The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-poll-suggests-just-9-of-britons-think-decision-to-leave-european-union-more-of-a-success-than-failure-12887197
Or has Sky News now become a Tofu eating, Guardian reader appeasing, Anti-Brexit, Liberal, Meritocratic, Wokeist Organisation,
Thems the realities and the 38 is decreasing daily and the 62 is growing daily and that is the reason so many sitting Conservative Members of Parliament are simply too embarrassed and too ashamed to face the electorate at the coming General Election hence they are running for them hills all be it not all to the Chiltern Hills like their infamous former Leader "Sir Boris Bog Dog Johnson", in reality we have a great deal to thank him for and he is the one recent Conservative Leader who does deserve a knighthood for serving up a total political debacle which shall see the United Kingdom rejoin the European Unions Single Market and deliver lower interest rates for the domestic consumers and businesses alike as well as alleviating the cost of Living Crisis so the Brexit Brigade shall no longer have to suffer is silence but once again be able to flock to their local Weatherspoon's and party in total merriment, oh that is if there are and local Weatherspoon's still open considering the rate at which they are being forced into closure,
LOL We wonder when the Museum to Rejoining the European Union is going to be opened and shall moving measures to metric prove to be an economic boost to the British Economy and you never know all the Road Signs could be changed from MPH to KPH wow and what percentage growth would that contribute to GDP the words copulating humans of low intellect comes to mind!!!!
Regards,
BV like many of the Brexit ideology when the price point at Weatherspoon's becomes prohibitive the domestic abuse of Haram Intoxicants starts to become prevalent, there is no logic, coherence or comprehension in your oration, remember the 52-48 is now a 38-62 and if the Angus Energy share price starts to offer such a favourable swing then even better,
For any new holder of equity a buy in at the current price and any offload at above that price offers value though it is a matter of where one sees their respective offload,
I have made several mistakes which I try to learn from and firstly the AIM market is the most volatile and offers the option of great rewards and great returns also it carries the risks of wipe-out as I have experienced with my Cineworld holdings by not offloading at the optimal time though what is the optimal time is a cloud for many,
I still a a firm believer that the current share price offers value and that a buyout at GB£0.02 per share offers fair value to those who have held for some time and are currently in the process of averaging down,
Regards,
Onbeyondzebra:
Please substantiate where I questioned your sanity for offloading at GB£0.0195 per share and for reference I do not believe a sell price of GB£0.0195 per share has been achieved in the past 6 months,
For those who have astutely taken a profit good and well and yes, wet dream or dry dream or still consider it optimal for a buy out st GB£0.02 per share,
The short term is going to be tight however 12 months of solid debt repayment and a harsh winter in Northern Europe with a buoyant market price per Therm combined which a strong rebound in China bodes well,
Though few who are sitting on a profit would doubt that the current share price offers value to either buyin or to reduce an average price per holding,
Regards,
Therms:
25.796 Million
2022 Q4 - 5,643,568
2023 Q1 - 5,408,692
2023 Q2 - 6,796,872
2023 Q3 - 7,946,992
Revenue from Therms Produced approx:
£17.349 Million
2022 Q4 - £3,019,698
2023 Q1 - £4,914,701
2023 Q2 - £4,891,143
2023 Q3 - £4,523,028
Average Price Per Term £1.4346
Average Calorific Value 41.2427
Monthly Splits Gas Price Per Therm:
Oct £2.52
Nov £2.81
Dec £2.78
Jan £1.57
Feb £1.34
Mar £1.10
Apr £1.01
May £0.72
Jun £0.78
Jul £0.74
Aug £0.87
Sep £0.93
Monthly Splits Therm Produced:
Oct 2,311,840
Nov 1,858,101
Dec 1,984,426
Jan 1,909,995
Feb 1,665,428
Mar 1,833,268
Apr 1,751,187
May 2,604,715
Jun 2,440,970
Jul 2,957,493
Aug 2,677,659
Sep 2,311,840
Regards,
29/09/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2700 ***ABOVE AVERAGE***
29/09/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1,602,222.0000
29/09/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1398 *** 4.9370 MMSCF/D***
30/09/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3400 ***ABOVE AVERAGE***
30/09/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1,610,000.0000
30/09/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1404 *** 4.9582 MMSCF/D***
Daily Output (Therms) = 54,935 FOR 30.09.2023
Month To Date (Therms) = 2,311,840
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 4.9582
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 209.0275
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 87,285
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,311,840
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.9330
F/C Hedge 1 = £563,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,043,600
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,606,850
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,582,748
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 4,600,000 Therms / 92 Days: 01.07.2022 - 30.09.2023
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,618,551 £1,606,850
Q3 2023 8,253,703 £4,809,187
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,618,551 £1,606,850
Oct-23 2,705,836 £2,039,661 Forecast
Nov-23 2,618,551 £2,065,431 Forecast
Dec-23 2,705,836 £2,245,316 Forecast
H2 2023 16,283,925 £11,159,596 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 87,285
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £1,971,319
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £22,355,467
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.95
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Feb-24 1.35
Mar-24 1.37
Apr-24 1.48
May-24 1.55
Jun-24 1.62
Jul-24 1.73
Aug-24 1.84
Sep-24 1.95
Regards,
As mentioned on numerous occasions a buyout at GB£0.02 per share would more than adequately surpass my expectations,
BV if you have a superior holding and average point I am perplexed that you also are not overtly advocating a GB£0.02 per share buyout,
In reality unless I am mistaken with no prospect of any dividend payment before 2025 however logically propose a different costed hypothesis if one exists what are your realistic expectations for generic stock price growth for Angus Energy,
In truth as someone posted a couple of weeks ago is there anyone sitting on a profit at present other than those who bought in at GB£0.0060per share???
The reality of the Board of Directors reaping their bonusses by getting the share price up to GB£0.03 per share is somewhat distant,
Anyway have a pleasant weekend and no doubt we look forward to reading the replies to the Q&A's,
Also if there is not discontent I shall resume the daily updates of output,
Regards,
27/09/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3400 ***ABOVE AVERAGE***
27/09/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1,582,222.0000
27/09/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1381 *** 4.8770 MMSCF/D***
28/09/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2700 ***ABOVE AVERAGE***
28/09/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1,603,333.0000
28/09/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1400 *** 4.9441 MMSCF/D***
***I STRONGLY BELIEVE THE MAINTENANCE WORK IS STILL ONGOING - THOUGH PLENTY OF SCOPE FOR CLARIFICATION AT THE MONTHLY Q&A SESSION***
Daily Output (Therms) = 54,708
Month To Date (Therms) = 2,202,234
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 4.9441
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 199.1324
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 88,049
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,202,234
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.9281
F/C Hedge 1 = £563,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,059,375
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,622,625
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,598,286
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 4,600,000 Therms / 92 Days: 01.07.2022 - 30.09.2023
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,641,479 £1,622,625 Forecast
Q3 2023 8,276,631 £4,824,963 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,641,479 £1,622,625 Forecast
Oct-23 2,729,529 £2,066,337 Forecast
Nov-23 2,641,479 £2,093,083 Forecast
Dec-23 2,729,529 £2,276,117 Forecast
H2 2023 16,377,168 £11,260,499 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 88,049
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £1,793,967
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £22,903,067
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.98
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Feb-24 1.35
Mar-24 1.38
Apr-24 1.50
May-24 1.57
Jun-24 1.65
Jul-24 1.75
Aug-24 1.87
Sep-24 1.98
Regards,
If readers wish for volumes I shall gladly update on a daily basis however the question is running a simple query is not that difficult if you are able to grasp the concept,
Regarding Kemexon dumping stock that would not play in their favour remember what is their price point of buys also remember if the current price point was favourable Paul Forrest would also be offloading which he is not hence I believe GB£0.02 per share would generate considerable support from a HUGE number of shareholders just from an indicative point what would the readers and contributors accept as a price point to support the board in a buyout!!!!!! remember what was 52-48 in 2016 is currently 38-62 so where GB£0.0350 to GB£0.0400 was a buyout point 12 months ago is significantly optimistic,
LOL
Regards,
Ultimately adding value is only going to happen through a M&A a merger with a benevolent benefactor of an acquisition by a major stakeholder,
In honestly I would sanction a buyout of the business and at GB£0.02 per share that would be considered a very fair price now the question is you get very upset on talk of a buyout and even more so when a figure of GB£0.02 per share is mentioned so in all honesty either you have a negligible holding or you have holding at significantly above GB£0.02 per share average,
The question is what is their average they are locked in for 12 months at GB£0.0066 for their recent conversion however what are the price points of their other conversions,
Remember they are cash rich and Angus have a viable asset however do not have such deep pockets prime for a buyout, also look at the age profile of the board and they are not going to hang around if a viable offer is made,
Personally a buyout is optimal as I am concerned,
Regards,
If they are not interested in a buyout why would they have accumulated so much stock,
Wishful thinking would be a buyout at GB£0.02 per share that gives them a great legacy and Paul Forrest is also financially well in,
Looking at the current share price many private investors would also be smiling at that,
Regards,
Profitbagger:
My pricing model has always stated the following:
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
There have been many ongoing sub optimal variables which Angus Energy have faced including cost, geo-political variables and global gas prices,
The business is an ongoing concern and in lieu of todays developments I have had to realign my forecast in an asymmetrical movement to the current share price,
My current forecasts are as follows:
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 88,466
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £1,698,958
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £23,199,485
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.00
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan:
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Feb-24 1.28
Mar-24 1.39
Apr-24 1.51
May-24 1.58
Jun-24 1.66
Jul-24 1.77
Aug-24 1.89
Sep-24 2.00
I still believe in the long-term viability of the business and have belief in my holding however I would have played certain variables differently to the Board of Directors and am absolutely resolute that the partial Hedge Buyback was a demonstration of gross financial ineptitude as the Gas Price Futures clearly indicate however it would be amazing if I were proven to have miscalculated,
Regards,
When one looks at the potential realised price per barrel for H2 thanks to Saudi prudence and OPEC responsibility the pendulum is swinging in favour of our sector,
Brent US$96.90 & WTI US$93.72 and climbing this all helps regarding realised revenue from Egypt, the viability of the Maria Licence and the mutual success for all relevant stakeholders and even regarding the Weald Basin Licence the opportunity to realise & explore additional revenue streams,
Though best of all Good Luck & Successful Progress regarding helping Jamaica realise its full potential from its God Given natural resources just as Trinidad, Guyana and other Caribbean nations are realising revenue opportunities to allow their economies to grow it is time Jamaica was allowed to share in the economic success story and the employment creation opportunities for those employed on the rigs and platforms and the ongoing ability for those to fund educational development for their children,
That is the synergy with Oil & Gas which we should be proud of so Good Luck & God Bless all the efforts of the Team at UOG,
Regards,
26/09/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2200 ***Below Average***
26/09/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1,630,000.0000
26/09/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1423 *** 5.0253 MMACF/D***
Daily Output (Therms) = 55,618
Month To Date (Therms) = 2,093,538
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 5.0253
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 189.3114
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 88,861
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,093,538
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.9185
F/C Hedge 1 = £563,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,070,770
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,634,020
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,609,509
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 4,600,000 Therms / 92 Days: 01.07.2022 - 30.09.2023
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,665,842 £1,634,020 Forecast
Q3 2023 8,300,994 £4,836,357 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,665,842 £1,634,020 Forecast
Oct-23 2,754,703 £2,094,681 Forecast
Nov-23 2,665,842 £2,122,464 Forecast
Dec-23 2,754,703 £2,308,844 Forecast
H2 2023 16,476,242 £11,362,346 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 3,626,860,032
FC Avg Therms / Day = 88,861
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £5,040,320
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £19,456,551
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.09
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Feb-24 1.50
Mar-24 1.50
Apr-24 1.54
May-24 1.62
Jun-24 1.71
Jul-24 1.83
Aug-24 1.96
Sep-24 2.09
Regards,
SurreyLad: I totally endorse your sentiments and totally empathise with your sentiments,
Whilst the majority of us here are believers in the United Kingdoms Oil & Gas Sector it would be truly amazing to hear if anyone in the United Kingdoms agriculture sector endorses the way the United Kingdoms farmers have been sold out over the shoddy Trade Deals which are jeopardising the integrity and quality of the United Kingdoms food supply chain and just out of interest if any British exporters import products from those third party countries and use them to add value to their products they may find there are issues regarding their onward supply into the European mainland,
Regards,
Balancedviewer:
In honesty the reaction of the City of London to what the desperate Brexiteers classify as a monumental trade deal is exceptionally muted GB£1=US$1.2159 the GB£ stood Loud & Proud at GB£1=US$1.75 before the Russian funded Brexit Referendum,
Current Opinion in the United Kingdom is that approximately 62% of the electorate believe the United Kingdom was a more affluent, credible & respectable country prior to the 2016 debacle which was compounded by further disaster in 2019 when Parliament passed the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement,
As AC Grayling so eloquently mentions it is not a question of whether the United Kingdom rejoins the European Unions Single Market but a matter of When!!!!!
Many affluent individuals and many of the Brexit Elite give no consideration to the number of Food Banks the United Kingdom has created and unlike many of the Brexit elite who have their shopping home delivered and do not share in the pain, misery and feelings of destitution which has afflicted the British consumer, it is sad what the Elite have delivered for the masses and as Vladimir Putin and his Red Mongrels are able to gloat on how they sucked in the British Top Brass and left the masses reeling in Misery and helped his country to a GB£40 Billion Brexit dividend,
Empathy is something which the elite are devoid of and is classified as a personality disorder on parallel with Narcissistic Brexit Denial Personality Disorder,
In truth the Boardrooms of the United Kingdom are on our side and recognise that if Sterling is not able to recover the United Kingdom shall become nothing than a mediocre Tier Two nation competing with Banana Republics and Distant Backwaters,
Brexit Has Failed the Trade Deal with the United States of America is a boon for the United States and allows the United States to flood the United Kingdom with exports and continue to yield a health dividend for the United States at the United Kingdoms expense!!!!!!!!
To gloat at GB£2billion which has a net negative impact upon the economy is nothing to be proud of more an act of desperation!!!!!!!!!!!!
Regards,
25/09/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.1500 ***Below The Field Average of 41.24***
25/09/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1,605,556.0000
25/09/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1402 *** 4.9511 MMSCF/D ***
*** Output Metrics Consistent With 2 of the 3 Wells Currently Contributing A Flow To The Grid ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 54,784
Month To Date (Therms) = 2,037,921
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 4.9511
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 184.2861
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 89,267
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,037,921
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.9151
F/C Hedge 1 = £563,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,078,019
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,641,269
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,616,650
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 4,600,000 Therms / 92 Days: 01.07.2022 - 30.09.2023
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,678,004 £1,641,269 Forecast
Q3 2023 8,313,156 £4,843,606 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,678,004 £1,641,269 Forecast
Oct-23 2,767,271 £2,108,831 Forecast
Nov-23 2,678,004 £2,137,132 Forecast
Dec-23 2,767,271 £2,325,182 Forecast
H2 2023 16,525,702 £11,414,751 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 3,626,860,032
FC Avg Therms / Day = 89,267
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £4,946,853
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £19,746,307
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.11
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Feb-24 1.50
Mar-24 1.50
Apr-24 1.55
May-24 1.63
Jun-24 1.72
Jul-24 1.85
Aug-24 1.98
Sep-24 2.11
Regards,
HerbertDTurbot:
SIMPLE SOLUTION: Cost Management, How many directors does the business require, the business is too top heavy,
The revenue streams must be identified and their contribution to bottom line scrutinised,
Cut the P&L by business segment and identify the respective ratios,
Regarding borrowing costs Angus Energy like every business in the United Kingdom is being penalised by the cost of capital and borrowing costs, the solution there is simple implement a strategy to increase Sterling to an acceptable US$1.75 = GB£1.00 experience acute deflation and watch interest rates tumble,
That shall alleviate the Cost of Living Crisis and reduce the need for Central Government to penalise the Oil & Gas Sector with draconian Windfall Taxes,
It is joyous to see all those EV Car & Van drivers milking the national Grid and driving up the Cost of Energy, Green Energy carries a premium and those who are able to afford the luxuries of EV's should make a fair contribution in the form of an Energy Premium Levy because their EV's shall eventually be the cost driver of higher energy bills for the majority of the population for longer, The Treasury must convert the Costs of Charging an EV into the hours of Energy that a household uses and convey those metrics to the country and the Green lobby!!!!
I post as is my pleasure,
I have overestimated my forecast and have learned that the share price of Angus Energy is very closely correlated to the Gas Price and as a result of the price of gas capitulating during the past 12 months and the share price moving proportionately I have also had to realign,
Lets see where the Share Price is in Feb 2024,
Alternatively you could also put up your pricing theory and your forecasts,
Толстая красная дворняжка,
tolstaya krasnoyersk dvornyazhka
Regards,
Regards,
Bubblepoint: Which well is the primary contributor to the condensate?
The output figures are consistent with two wells feeding the grid, remember all three wells contribute different amounts,
The other factor is if your hypothesis was correct then the calorific values would have been consistent, however look at their fluctuation during the past 5 days,
Unless you are able to substantiate or prove otherwise I stand resolute in my belief that only wells 1 & 2 are feeding the grid at present and that well 3's connection to the grid is being worked on,
Regards,
24/09/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3200 ***ABOVE AVERAGE***
24/09/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1,600,000.0000
24/09/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1396 *** 4.9299 MMSCF/D ***
***ONGOING MAINTENANCE WORK ONLY TWO OF THE THREE WELLS ARE SUPPLYING GAS AT PRESENT***
Daily Output (Therms) = 54,594
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,983,137
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 4.9299
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 179.3350
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 89,693
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 1,983,137
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.9093
F/C Hedge 1 = £563,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,082,806
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,646,056
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,621,365
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 4,600,000 Therms / 92 Days: 01.07.2022 - 30.09.2023
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,690,776 £1,646,056 Forecast
Q3 2023 8,325,927 £4,848,393 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,690,776 £1,646,056 Forecast
Oct-23 2,780,468 £2,123,690 Forecast
Nov-23 2,690,776 £2,152,534 Forecast
Dec-23 2,780,468 £2,342,338 Forecast
H2 2023 16,577,639 £11,466,955 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 3,626,860,032
FC Avg Therms / Day = 89,693
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £4,850,238
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £20,048,779
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.13
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Feb-24 1.50
Mar-24 1.50
Apr-24 1.56
May-24 1.65
Jun-24 1.74
Jul-24 1.87
Aug-24 2.00
Sep-24 2.13
Regards,