The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
08/10/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2900 ***ABOVE AVERAGE***
08/10/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,781,111.0000
08/10/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2429 *** 8.5779 mmscf/d***
Daily Output (Therms) = 94,895
Month To Date (Therms) = 704,948
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 8.5779
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 63.6900
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 87,355
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,731,675
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.9670
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £1,142,641
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,864,166
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,836,203
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Oct-23 2,731,675 £1,864,166 Forecast
Nov-23 2,620,656 £2,067,971 Forecast
Dec-23 2,708,012 £2,248,145 Forecast
Q4 2023 8,060,344 £6,180,281 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,601,937
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,463,168
Sep-23 2,311,840 £1,320,691
Oct-23 2,731,675 £1,864,166 Forecast
Nov-23 2,620,656 £2,067,971 Forecast
Dec-23 2,708,012 £2,248,145 Forecast
H2 2023 16,007,335 £10,566,077 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 87,355
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,207,029
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £23,688,272
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.03
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Mar-24 1.32
Apr-24 1.44
May-24 1.51
Jun-24 1.58
Jul-24 1.68
Aug-24 1.80
Sep-24 1.92
Oct-24 2.03
Regards,
Applicable For Data Item Value
07/10/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2200 ***BELOW AVERAGE***
07/10/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,807,778.0000
07/10/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2450 *** 8.6521 MMSCF/D***
Daily Output (Therms) = 95,805
Month To Date (Therms) = 610,053
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 8.6521
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 55.1121
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 87,275
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,701,664
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.9559
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £1,100,818
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,822,343
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,795,007
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Oct-23 2,701,664 £1,822,343 Forecast
Nov-23 2,618,250 £2,065,069 Forecast
Dec-23 2,705,525 £2,244,912 Forecast
Q4 2023 8,025,439 £6,132,323 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,601,937
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,463,168
Sep-23 2,311,840 £1,320,691
Oct-23 2,701,664 £1,822,343 Forecast
Nov-23 2,618,250 £2,065,069 Forecast
Dec-23 2,705,525 £2,244,912 Forecast
H2 2023 15,972,430 £10,518,119 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 87,275
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,245,770
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £23,604,774
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.02
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Mar-24 1.32
Apr-24 1.43
May-24 1.50
Jun-24 1.57
Jul-24 1.68
Aug-24 1.79
Sep-24 1.92
Oct-24 2.02
Regards,
06/10/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2800 ***ABOVE ABERAGE***
06/10/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,838,889.0000
06/10/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2478 *** 8.7510 mmscf/d***
Daily Output (Therms) = 96,867
Month To Date (Therms) = 514,248
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 8.7510
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 46.4600
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 87,286
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,706,365
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.9581
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £1,107,930
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,829,455
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,802,013
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Oct-23 2,706,365 £1,829,455 Forecast
Nov-23 2,618,589 £2,065,477 Forecast
Dec-23 2,705,875 £2,245,367 Forecast
Q4 2023 8,030,829 £6,140,299 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,601,937
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,463,168
Sep-23 2,311,840 £1,320,691
Oct-23 2,706,365 £1,829,455 Forecast
Nov-23 2,618,589 £2,065,477 Forecast
Dec-23 2,705,875 £2,245,367 Forecast
H2 2023 15,977,820 £10,526,095 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 87,286
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,239,656
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £23,617,308
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.03
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Mar-24 1.32
Apr-24 1.43
May-24 1.50
Jun-24 1.57
Jul-24 1.68
Aug-24 1.79
Sep-24 1.92
Oct-24 2.03
Regards,
05/10/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2500 ***ABOVE AVERAGE***
05/10/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,782,222.0000
05/10/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2428 *** 8.5744 MMSCF/D***
Daily Output (Therms) = 94,933
Month To Date (Therms) = 417,381
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 8.5744
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 37.7090
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 87,078
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 417,381
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.9611
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £997,426
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,718,951
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,693,167
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 4,600,000 Therms / 92 Days: 01.07.2022 - 30.09.2023
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Oct-23 2,587,761 £1,718,951 Forecast
Nov-23 2,612,341 £2,057,942 Forecast
Dec-23 2,699,419 £2,236,974 Forecast
Q4 2023 7,899,520 £6,013,867 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,601,937
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,463,168
Sep-23 2,311,840 £1,320,691
Oct-23 2,587,761 £1,718,951 Forecast
Nov-23 2,612,341 £2,057,942 Forecast
Dec-23 2,699,419 £2,236,974 Forecast
H2 2023 15,846,512 £10,399,663 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 87,078
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,341,274
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £23,399,292
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.01
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Mar-24 1.30
Apr-24 1.42
May-24 1.49
Jun-24 1.56
Jul-24 1.66
Aug-24 1.77
Sep-24 1.90
Oct-24 2.01
Regards,
Push2 quite simply I applaud intuition and in your case prudence,
Well dome on your profit taking and I was not one of those that berated you at the time and yest I have to accept that I have realigned my pricing model somewhat to take into account domestic and geo-political variables that I did not envisage a few months ago and to my cost,
It is a learning curve though as far as I am concerned the business offers great value at present and I believe that it shall be sold within the coming 24 months and it would be even for satisfying if my price projections were to be realised,
The important thing is how much of your profit taking do you have stashed because the following as quite attractive at present as is that share price of Angus Energy:
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/t/treasury-4.25-07092039-gilt/share-charts
Regards,
Another feather in the cap of the taking back control brigade,
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/foodanddrink/other/four-lincolnshire-chippies-make-top-40-entries-in-national-fish-and-chip-shop-awards/ar-AA1hKuMy?cvid=2e74db1acc914622ae18dc48f6414e84&ei=44
Domestic Industries that were supposedly going to be protected by the decision to leave the European Unions Single Market are getting slain because rather than dictating post Brexit Trade Deals the United Kingdom is being placed in an embarrassing position of this is the deal Take it or Leave it,
It is a shame the electorate is being asked by the elite to endure in science though the 2024 general election is soon approaching and Thems the realities of the situation,
52-48 that was is now a 38-62 that is growing our way daily,
Bubblepoint:
You are simply failing to grasp the concept:
Firstly how many days stock does the United Kingdom hold of Natural Gas and once the domestic reserves have become depleted the United Kingdom has to use reserves from the Global Supply Chain and when one looks at the global supply chain for Natural Gas one sees that it is currently predominately being suppled by the United States of America & the Arabian Gulf Nations plus small amounts from APAC nations,
The US Henry Hub price from Natural Gas is a strong driver and benchmark for global prices and when US gas reserves become depleted US & International prices rise and rise quite significantly and it has been that gradual upsizing in US Gas prices during the past 6 months which has supported the TTF & UK Natural Gas price!!!!!,
Remember a hard winter in Northern Europe could easily see GB£2.00 per Therm of Gas being realised and for share price support that is something most genuine investors welcome,
Your perspective has swung significantly since you sold out from the Highs of May 2023 no doubt you have your own reasons however like many learned and more commercially adept individual I believe the winter and spring seasons in 2023 & 2024 offer a great upside for both Domestic & Global Energy Suppliers,
Regards,
Https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/weather/topstories/us-weather-cold-blast-threatens-days-of-snow-and-shivering-downpours/ar-AA1hHMLM?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a314b66cf8134ba8837867dd7b04beab&ei=13
Winter Is On Its Way:
Combine The Weather, A Positive Balcombe Outcome For Angus Energy, Strong Gas Prices & Positive Refinancing News For A Strong Q4 SP Recovery,
With A Favourable Headwind lest see how close we get to the current ^month SP Forecast:
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Mar-24 1.30
Apr-24 1.41
May-24 1.48
Jun-24 1.55
Jul-24 1.65
Aug-24 1.76
Sep-24 1.89
Oct-24 2.01
Who Knows In 12 Months Angus Energy Could Also Be Debt Free & a 2025 Dividend for Shareholders,
Regards,
Hi there,
Who is able to explain the concept contained within the relevant sections re the RNS today and the RNS issued on 28.09.2023 regarding the total number of shares in issue,
Regards & thanks,
Https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/england-s-homes-are-lowest-quality-yet-among-the-most-expensive-in-developed-world/ar-AA1hJlik?cvid=404ce3d64cf846e0a8aef5ca244f340d&ei=11
Whilst many agree that I am not an overt fan of the suitability of Geothermal Energy for much of the United Kingdoms Housing Stock the Board Should take onboard that Geothermal Investment must be specific and specifically targeted to well insulated sustainably designed housing which as the metrics in the above report detail are not aligned to much of the existing housing that the United Kingdom has to offer especially in the Northern Regions which contain an aging Housing Stock,
Regards,
04/10/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3000 ***Above Average***
04/10/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,615,556.0000
04/10/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2284 *** 8.0659 MMSCF/D ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 89,246
Month To Date (Therms) = 322,447
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 8.0659
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 29.1346
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 86,992
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 322,447
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.9723
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £922,662
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,644,187
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,619,524
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 4,600,000 Therms / 92 Days: 01.07.2022 - 30.09.2023
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Oct-23 2,498,967 £1,644,187 Forecast
Nov-23 2,609,751 £2,054,819 Forecast
Dec-23 2,696,743 £2,233,495 Forecast
Q4 2023 7,805,461 £5,932,501 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,601,937
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,463,168
Sep-23 2,311,840 £1,320,691
Oct-23 2,498,967 £1,644,187 Forecast
Nov-23 2,609,751 £2,054,819 Forecast
Dec-23 2,696,743 £2,233,495 Forecast
H2 2023 15,752,453 £10,318,297 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 86,992
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,398,996
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £23,290,492
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.01
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Mar-24 1.30
Apr-24 1.41
May-24 1.48
Jun-24 1.55
Jul-24 1.65
Aug-24 1.76
Sep-24 1.89
Oct-24 2.01
Regards,
Https://www.fwi.co.uk/business/canadian-cattle-groups-say-no-to-uks-entry-into-cptpp
Another Colossal Brexit Trade Deal Failure For The United Kingdom,
Perhaps further reasons for weakness in Sterling which detrimentally affect Business Confidence, Inflation & Bank Lending Rates which detrimentally affects all British Companies Attempting To Access Preferential Costs of Capital
,
How Long Can The United Kingdoms Businesses Survive Carrying The Burden Of This Failed Ideology no wonder 52-48 has now become 38-62,
When The Farming Community Start Questioning Brexit The Message Must Be Accepted Brexit Has Failed The Country & Brexit Has Failed Those Who Were Lulled Into Its Fallacy,
Regards,
OBZ:
Excellent thanks for the reply however I still believe there is scope in the medium term / long term for the business to realise a share price of GB£0.02 which might represent good value for may who would consider that a fair price to sell the business at unless there are others who still have more fanciful sell prices in mind,
Regards,
03/10/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2900 ***ABOVE AVERAGE***
03/10/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,843,333.0000
03/10/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2481 *** 8.7616 MMSCF/D***
Daily Output (Therms) = 97,019
Month To Date (Therms) = 233,201
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 8.7616
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 21.0687
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 86,967
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 233,201
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.9833
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £1,126,857
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,848,382
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,820,656
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 4,600,000 Therms / 92 Days: 01.07.2022 - 30.09.2023
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Oct-23 2,695,966 £1,861,540 Forecast
Nov-23 2,608,999 £2,053,912 Forecast
Dec-23 2,695,966 £2,232,485 Forecast
Q4 2023 8,000,931 £6,147,937 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,601,937
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,463,168
Sep-23 2,608,999 £1,597,939
Oct-23 2,695,966 £1,861,540 Forecast
Nov-23 2,608,999 £2,053,912 Forecast
Dec-23 2,695,966 £2,232,485 Forecast
H2 2023 16,245,082 £10,810,982 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 86,967
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,136,451
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £23,588,935
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.02
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Mar-24 1.34
Apr-24 1.46
May-24 1.52
Jun-24 1.59
Jul-24 1.70
Aug-24 1.81
Sep-24 1.92
Oct-24 2.02
Regards,
Onbeyondzebra:
So with great trading knowledge what variables are going to create a price spike sufficient to entice yourself and Paul Forrest to offload,
Also what is the state of play regarding all those warrants that were issued about 9mopnths ago when the sidetrack was being drilled,
There were huge tranches issued at GB£0.0165, GB£0.0140 & GB£0.0120 and with Board not receiving their Bonus until the share price reaches GB£0.03 per share there must surely be some viability which makes talk of the Business being sold at GB£0.01 per share nothing more that utter nonsense,
Regards,
Bubblepoint:
Counting raindrops is associated with low pressure systems what we require from now on through to spring time is a lengthy series of high pressure systems with clear skies over the United Kingdom and Northern Europe which are associated in late Autumn and the Winter Season with low temperatures, low wind speed and with the Earths angle of elevation / tilt low solar output which increases the reliance upon CCGT Energy which protects the revenue stream for the business,
"CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine - These use Natural Gas to power a Turbine which turns a Generator. A second system uses the heat to produce steam which is used to turn a turbine which powers a generator. There are 39 CCGT power stations in the UK".
Click the link for US gas Prices and one shall see a steady increase since April 2023 a gradual and sustainable increase in price at the point of $2.9/MMBtu in North America and strong demand in LNG from China is optimal,
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
Combines with the increase in EV owners who are also depleting the global electricity supplies with the slowing of bringing online EV charging points are all big plus points for the Petrochemical & Gas sectors regarding protecting Revenue Streams,
There was an interesting article today where the Indian Ministry of Energy is starting to whinge at their inability to maintain a low cost base due to the Global Community closely watching their access to cheap Russian Crude and how they are starting to have to realign their price points to the global level,
Remember there is a great deal to be thankful to OPEC & Saudi Arabia for,
Regards,
02/10/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3100 ***ABOVE AVERAGE***
02/10/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,395,556.0000
02/10/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2091 *** 7.3843 MMSCF/D***
Daily Output (Therms) = 81,740
Month To Date (Therms) = 136,182
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.3843
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 12.3072
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 86,854
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 136,182
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.9998
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £1,142,198
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,863,723
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,835,767
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 4,600,000 Therms / 92 Days: 01.07.2022 - 30.09.2023
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Oct-23 2,692,465 £1,877,299 Forecast
Nov-23 2,605,611 £2,049,826 Forecast
Dec-23 2,692,465 £2,227,934 Forecast
Q4 2023 7,990,541 £6,155,058 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,601,937
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,463,168
Sep-23 2,605,611 £1,594,778
Oct-23 2,692,465 £1,877,299 Forecast
Nov-23 2,605,611 £2,049,826 Forecast
Dec-23 2,692,465 £2,227,934 Forecast
H2 2023 16,231,303 £10,814,941 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 86,854
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,152,495
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £23,516,865
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.02
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Mar-24 1.34
Apr-24 1.45
May-24 1.52
Jun-24 1.59
Jul-24 1.70
Aug-24 1.81
Sep-24 1.92
Oct-24 2.02
Regards,
Bubblepoint:
Planned maintenance could include a variety of works related matters,
We know works on the pipeline are in progress and there may well have been some mitigating reasons there to account for Output Fluctuations & having both compressors recently serviced and just Now being informed that one of the compressor Engines blew is not something that I placed a great deal of probability towards,
There has been considerable consternation from Investors regarding COMMUNICATION from the Board of Angus Energy and personally I believe credibility could always be improved if the Board Notified INVESTORS WHEN SOMETHING HAS HAPPENED in real time and NOT AFTERWARDS this eliminates un-necessary speculation and unsettling Private Investors and then providing a timeline for corrective works,
It is good to see that both compressors are now functioning correctly and that we should see output moving towards 100,000 Therms per day,
We must also be grateful to OPEC and Saudi Arabia for their diligent measures to assist in the correction of the Global Oil Price which has helped protect the values of the Condensate Produced,
When I issue my Output Data I only report on Gas Price & Gas Revenue my revenue forecasts for July to Sept were GB£4.65 Million and the Board has reported GB£6.30 therefore the additional GB£1.65 Million cannot be wholly attributable to Condensate alone but condensate must have made up a significant percentage so it would be appreciated if the Board would also detail the other revenue streams to provide commitment to greater transparency moving forwards,
So we thank all the efforts of Angus Energy, OPEC and the Saudi Arabian authorities in a concerted effort to protect and advance revenue streams of the Business,
01/10/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2300 ***BELOW AVERAGE***
01/10/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1,595,556.0000
01/10/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1394 *** 4.9229 MMSCF/D***
Daily Output (Therms) = 54,443
Month To Date (Therms) = 54,443
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 4.9229
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 4.9229
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 86,912
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 54,443
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £1.0454
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £1,196,159
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,917,684
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,888,918
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 4,600,000 Therms / 92 Days: 01.07.2022 - 30.09.2023
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Oct-23 2,694,266 £1,932,418 Forecast
Nov-23 2,607,354 £2,051,928 Forecast
Dec-23 2,694,266 £2,230,276 Forecast
Q4 2023 7,995,887 £6,214,622 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,601,937
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,463,168
Sep-23 2,607,354 £1,596,404
Oct-23 2,694,266 £1,932,418 Forecast
Nov-23 2,607,354 £2,051,928 Forecast
Dec-23 2,694,266 £2,230,276 Forecast
H2 2023 16,238,393 £10,876,131 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 86,912
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,110,174
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £23,594,200
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.02
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Mar-24 1.35
Apr-24 1.46
May-24 1.53
Jun-24 1.60
Jul-24 1.70
Aug-24 1.81
Sep-24 1.92
Oct-24 2.02
Regards,
Only 4 support the comment, is that a bit like the Brexit Dividend it was supposed to happen in the mythical land of the flying unicorn which in sad reality resembled a moth bitten Blackpool Beach Donkey with an inverted Ice Cream Cone,
Look if the price point of a Weatherspoon's visit is no longer how about the Brexiteers asking Vladimir Putin for some of that GB£40Billion Brexit Dividend which was diverted to Russia through the falling value of Sterling to be given back a beer subsidy!!!!
Be thankful we have stayed loyal to the cause and are standing shoulder to shoulder and are taking back control!!!!!!