Bubbles put up your model or is it just easier to indulge on the refined delicacies of your local spoons why from such a intuitive contributor have you become so disillusioned of does the local spoons help drown the sorrows of wasting the proceeds of your initiative & profitable offload of Angus equity in late Spring of this year!!!!!!!!!
HeadInTheSand:
A longer Debt repayment schedule with I disagree the board of Angus Energy need to negotiate a deal where they have the option to be ag aggressive as possible regarding debt repayment, the sooner the debt is repaid the less interest costs have to be paid,
I would like the Board to come clean and state that there shall be no dividend payments until the business has repaid its debts and also as investors there must be questions asked regarding the methodology in opting for buying off part of the hedge at significantly inflated prices that made no sense whatsoever especially the Winter gas futures are only currently at GB£1.40 per Therm and need to be significantly higher,
Prudence is the mantra and ideally a still further cull of the board members because Angus Energy is only really a SME and is far to top heavy and it would be interesting to know the ratio of Salaries inc directors and ex directors salaries as a percentage of top level sales revenues!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Balancedviewer:
The reality of the situation is that I am not ashamed of my views and absolute contempt for Brexit and the negative impact it is having upon the United Kingdoms economy, remember it is a sound and prudent ideology to denounce failures at every instance and as far as I am concerned and the majority of the Country is concerned and the majority consensus within the Boardrooms of the United Kingdom Brexit has failed and must be revoked at the earliest opportunity because it is having a huge negative impact on the access and cost of capital of Businesses and effective cost management of factor inputs,
Regarding the pricing model it is in the interest of all shareholders and potential readers of this platform to produce accurate metrics and report as accurately as possible and be informative where the board are not forthcoming with daily metrics regarding revenue & output,
So any assistance regarding building a better model would be in all our interests, so if my assumptions re debt and repayment are inaccurate then please provide a working hypothesis with econometric assumptions so we may confer metrics and assumptions to produce relevant and accurate data,
Remember unlike the Conservative legislature which is predominately full of Marginally literate Arts graduates who are cognitively limited and lack integrity regarding the detriments of Brexit we should show that those from the Science Faculties are of higher intellect, acumen and credibility,
The following link may be considered an apt summary of a Conservative Cabinet meeting:
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=you+tube+clangers+ode+to+joy&view=detail&mid=179F49F63D1E9CE19023179F49F63D1E9CE19023&FORM=VIRE
Where is the one who is always flying around on his magic carpet has he gone awol like his four predecessors!!!
Balancedviewer: the question regarding a responsible payment methodology has never been asked,
However as it appears you are asking the question with proportion of civility I shall explain my concept and should it require correction or detailed re-evaluation all valid comments shall be considered if they are in alignment with my ideology,
I inserted a debt of GB£21,000,000 in my model on 01.03.2023 and and annual interest rate of 16% for the purpose of the model,
so the interest on GB£21,000,000 for March 2023 would have been ((0.16/12)*(21,000,000))=GB£280,000 which would be added to the GB£21,000,000 then the monthly gas revenue from Saltfleetby in March 2023 which was GB£1,673,093.54 less the interest would be used to pay off the debt and then the balance rolled onto the next month and so on,
Hence I also report on a hypothesis of Annual Revenue less debt repayment and debt outstanding, I appreciate the concept may be a tad complex for some (predominately Brexiteers who it has been proven have a lower cognitive, intellectual and numerical ability hence their belief in Brexit delivering a success for the United Kingdom) and however the vast majority should be able to follow through the methodology especially if they are building their own data model,
I have assumed operating expenses for the business are covered by other NON Gas Revenues within the Business Portfolio however I have not built in the following:
The stupidity if the decision to pay a premium for partial hedge offset,
Debt at 01.03.2023 being an estimated GB£21,000,000,
Monthly Debt Repayment Interest charges being (0.16/12) i.e. 16% / 12months,
Therefor should some of the input variables require re-evaluation then perhaps there is validity in saying that these may require reworking and a new "what if" upon the forecast share price,
The important thing is to build your own pricing model and inserting the metrics and sating assumptions used,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bylj_hZPv-8
Regards,
12/09/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.1800 ***BELOW AVERAGE***
12/09/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,677,778.0000
12/09/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2343 *** 8.2742 MMSCF/D***
Daily Output (Therms) = 91,370
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,057,650
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 91,878
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 1,057,650
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.8631
F/C Hedge 1 = £563,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,084,318
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,647,568
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,622,854
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 4,600,000 Therms / 92 Days: 01.07.2022 - 30.09.2023
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,756,351 £1,647,568 Forecast
Q3 2023 8,391,503 £4,849,905 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,756,351 £1,647,568 Forecast
Oct-23 2,848,229 £1,867,749 Forecast
Nov-23 2,756,351 £2,097,760 Forecast
Dec-23 2,848,229 £2,417,191 Forecast
H2 2023 16,844,313 £11,232,605 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 3,621,860,032
FC Avg Therms / Day = 91,878
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £4,294,718
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £21,435,309
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.23
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Feb-24 1.50
Mar-24 1.50
Apr-24 1.62
May-24 1.72
Jun-24 1.82
Jul-24 1.96
Aug-24 2.09
Sep-24 2.23
Regards,
11/09/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.1700 ***BELOW AVERAGE***
11/09/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,658,889.0000
11/09/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2325 *** 8.2107 MMSCF/D***
Daily Output (Therms) = 90,725
Month To Date (Therms) = 966,281
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 91,886
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 966,281
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.8607
F/C Hedge 1 = £563,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,081,535
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,644,785
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,620,113
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 4,600,000 Therms / 92 Days: 01.07.2022 - 30.09.2023
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,756,576 £1,644,785 Forecast
Q3 2023 8,391,727 £4,847,122 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,756,576 £1,644,785 Forecast
Oct-23 2,848,461 £1,867,952 Forecast
Nov-23 2,756,576 £2,098,007 Forecast
Dec-23 2,848,461 £2,417,491 Forecast
H2 2023 16,845,226 £11,230,571 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 3,621,860,032
FC Avg Therms / Day = 91,886
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £4,294,501
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £21,438,823
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.23
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Feb-24 1.50
Mar-24 1.50
Apr-24 1.62
May-24 1.72
Jun-24 1.82
Jul-24 1.96
Aug-24 2.09
Sep-24 2.23
Regards,
Bubblepoint:
Remember words / lyrics are qualitative and subject to interpretation,
However what would be impressive is to see how Saul Hudson applies if musical skills to Bethovens' 9th
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?&q=beethoven%27s+9th+rock+version&view=detail&mid=32D38BA4633B5AAC98F032D38BA4633B5AAC98F0&FORM=VDRVRV&ajaxhist=0
Oil prices are set to continue their climb toward the $100 mark this week thanks to supply disruptions in Libya and expectations of a further U.S. inventory draw.
Brent crude futures rose above $92.10 per barrel on Tuesday, marking a new high not seen since November 2022 driven by OPEC's continued projection of strong oil demand growth. According to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, slightly lower than the 2.44 million bpd growth projected for 2023. OPEC+ initiated supply limits in 2022 to stabilize the oil market and recently, Saudi Arabia and Russia decided to extend their voluntary production cuts until the end of the year. However, new data showed that OPEC oil production increased in August, primarily due to Iran's production recovery, despite the ongoing US sanctions on Tehran and Saudi Arabia's voluntary cuts. Additionally, the weakening of the US dollar ahead of key US inflation data contributed to increased risk sentiment and made dollar-denominated commodities more appealing to international buyers.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
Bubblepoint: With your astute Trading of Angus Equities during late Spring / Early Summer this year surely you have enough stashed to have a trip to the local spoons rather than scripting bile after consuming a few tinnies from the local corner shop,
Should the gas connections between Russia & Ukraine pop this winter naturally there shall be a spike in prices you surely exited at the correct price point so why your resentment towards the equity unless of course you have done your nuts elsewhere!!!!!!!
There is also a matter of gas futures they are a touch soft at present winter prices at GB£1.35 rather than the GB£1.50 which Angus requires to come out of its early hedge settlement with a profit,
Regards,
Bubblepoint: the issues in Ukraine involving Putin's invasion caused a huge spike in Gas Prices and sent the Share Price soaring to GB£0.0275 for some that would be one heck of an exit point,
The Gas Pipelines which are running through Ukraine delivering supplies to Europe from Russia would cause considerable turmoil to supplies and short/medium term gas prices into Europe from Russia should sustainable supply become interrupted!!!!
For short term investors geopolitical variable are often credible entry / exit points and yes from natures perspective this and the coming 2 to 3 winters are going to be somewhat colder than we have recently experienced it is a matter of probability aligning,
10/09/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2700 ***ABOVE AVERAGE***
10/09/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,567,778.0000
10/09/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2243 *** 7.9211 MMSCF/D ***
***THE REASON SHARE PRICE GROWTH HAS SOMEWHAT STAGNATED IS THE DECLINE IN THERMS PRODUCED ***
01.08.2023 THERMAS PRODUCED 100,052 & DAILY REVENUE FROM SALTFLEETBY GAS GB£ 62,464 & YESTERDAY 86,616 THERMS AND A DAILY REVENUE OF GB£ 51,057 from Saltfleetby gas, perhaps a theme for the month end Q&A***
Daily Output (Therms) = 87,616
Month To Date (Therms) = 875,556
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 91,903
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 875,556
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.8582
F/C Hedge 1 = £563,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,078,816
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,642,066
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,617,435
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 4,600,000 Therms / 92 Days: 01.07.2022 - 30.09.2023
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,757,095 £1,642,066 Forecast
Q3 2023 8,392,247 £4,844,403 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,757,095 £1,642,066 Forecast
Oct-23 2,848,998 £2,149,858 Forecast
Nov-23 2,757,095 £2,288,910 Forecast
Dec-23 2,848,998 £2,563,868 Forecast
H2 2023 16,847,340 £11,847,040 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 3,621,860,032
FC Avg Therms / Day = 91,903
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £4,400,496
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £21,122,321
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.21
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Feb-24 1.50
Mar-24 1.54
Apr-24 1.67
May-24 1.75
Jun-24 1.83
Jul-24 1.94
Aug-24 2.07
Sep-24 2.21
Regards,
09/09/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2500 ***ABOVE AVERAGE***
09/09/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,593,333.0000
09/09/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2267 *** 8.0058 MMSCF/D ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 88,488
Month To Date (Therms) = 787,939
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 91,968
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 787,939
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.8532
F/C Hedge 1 = £563,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,074,153
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,637,403
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,612,842
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 4,600,000 Therms / 92 Days: 01.07.2022 - 30.09.2023
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,759,044 £1,637,403 Forecast
Q3 2023 8,394,196 £4,839,740 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,759,044 £1,637,403 Forecast
Oct-23 2,851,012 £2,152,048 Forecast
Nov-23 2,759,044 £2,291,346 Forecast
Dec-23 2,851,012 £2,566,687 Forecast
H2 2023 16,855,264 £11,849,822 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 3,621,860,032
FC Avg Therms / Day = 91,968
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £4,388,262
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £21,164,516
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.21
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Feb-24 1.50
Mar-24 1.54
Apr-24 1.67
May-24 1.75
Jun-24 1.83
Jul-24 1.94
Aug-24 2.07
Sep-24 2.21
Regards,
08/09/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2800 ***ABOVE AVERAGE ***
08/09/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,660,000.0000
08/09/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2324 *** 8.2071 MMSCF/D***
Daily Output (Therms) = 90,763
Month To Date (Therms) = 699,451
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 92,022
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 699,451
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.8524
F/C Hedge 1 = £563,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,074,564
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,637,814
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,613,247
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 4,600,000 Therms / 92 Days: 01.07.2022 - 30.09.2023
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,760,650 £1,637,814 Forecast
Q3 2023 8,395,802 £4,840,151 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,760,650 £1,637,814 Forecast
Oct-23 2,852,672 £2,153,853 Forecast
Nov-23 2,760,650 £2,293,354 Forecast
Dec-23 2,852,672 £2,569,011 Forecast
H2 2023 16,861,795 £11,856,368 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 3,621,860,032
FC Avg Therms / Day = 92,022
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £4,375,890
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £21,201,936
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.21
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Feb-24 1.50
Mar-24 1.54
Apr-24 1.68
May-24 1.75
Jun-24 1.83
Jul-24 1.95
Aug-24 2.07
Sep-24 2.21
Regards,
07/09/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2500 ***ABOVE AVERAGE***
07/09/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,670,000.0000
07/09/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2332 *** 8.2354 MMSCF/D***
Daily Output (Therms) = 91,104
Month To Date (Therms) = 608,688
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 92,041
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 608,688
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.8514
F/C Hedge 1 = £563,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,073,867
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,637,117
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,612,560
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 4,600,000 Therms / 92 Days: 01.07.2022 - 30.09.2023
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,761,240 £1,637,117 Forecast
Q3 2023 8,396,392 £4,839,454 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,761,240 £1,637,117 Forecast
Oct-23 2,853,281 £2,154,516 Forecast
Nov-23 2,761,240 £2,294,091 Forecast
Dec-23 2,853,281 £2,569,864 Forecast
H2 2023 16,864,195 £11,857,925 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 3,621,860,032
FC Avg Therms / Day = 92,041
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £4,371,801
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £21,215,156
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.21
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Feb-24 1.50
Mar-24 1.54
Apr-24 1.68
May-24 1.75
Jun-24 1.83
Jul-24 1.95
Aug-24 2.07
Sep-24 2.21
Regards,
06/09/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.1700 ***BELOW AVERAGE***
06/09/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,660,000.0000
06/09/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2328 *** 8.2213 MMSCF/D***
Daily Output (Therms) = 90,763
Month To Date (Therms) = 517,584
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 92,056
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 517,584
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.8459
F/C Hedge 1 = £563,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,067,297
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,630,547
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,606,088
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 4,600,000 Therms / 92 Days: 01.07.2022 - 30.09.2023
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,761,686 £1,630,547 Forecast
Q3 2023 8,396,838 £4,832,884 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,761,686 £1,630,547 Forecast
Oct-23 2,853,743 £2,155,017 Forecast
Nov-23 2,761,686 £2,294,649 Forecast
Dec-23 2,853,743 £2,570,510 Forecast
H2 2023 16,866,010 £11,853,060 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 3,621,860,032
FC Avg Therms / Day = 92,056
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £4,371,959
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £21,221,403
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.21
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Feb-24 1.50
Mar-24 1.54
Apr-24 1.68
May-24 1.75
Jun-24 1.83
Jul-24 1.95
Aug-24 2.07
Sep-24 2.21
Regards,
05/09/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.1700 ***BELOW AVERAGE***
05/09/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,682,222.0000
05/09/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2345 *** 8.2813 MMSCF/D ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 91,521
Month To Date (Therms) = 426,821
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 92,077
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 426,821
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.8536
F/C Hedge 1 = £563,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,077,489
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,640,739
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,616,127
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 4,600,000 Therms / 92 Days: 01.07.2022 - 30.09.2023
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,762,312 £1,640,739 Forecast
Q3 2023 8,397,464 £4,843,076 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,762,312 £1,640,739 Forecast
Oct-23 2,854,389 £2,155,720 Forecast
Nov-23 2,762,312 £2,295,431 Forecast
Dec-23 2,854,389 £2,571,415 Forecast
H2 2023 16,868,554 £11,865,642 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 3,621,860,032
FC Avg Therms / Day = 92,077
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £4,361,742
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £21,242,211
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.22
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Feb-24 1.50
Mar-24 1.54
Apr-24 1.68
May-24 1.75
Jun-24 1.83
Jul-24 1.95
Aug-24 2.08
Sep-24 2.22
Regards,
04/09/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.1700 ***BELOW AVERAGE***
04/09/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,677,778.0000
04/09/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2342 *** 8.2707 MMSCF/D***
Daily Output (Therms) = 91,370
Month To Date (Therms) = 335,300
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 92,086
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 335,300
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.8591
F/C Hedge 1 = £563,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,084,687
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,647,937
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,623,218
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 4,600,000 Therms / 92 Days: 01.07.2022 - 30.09.2023
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,762,585 £1,647,937 Forecast
Q3 2023 8,397,737 £4,850,274 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,618,180
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,584,157
Sep-23 2,762,585 £1,647,937 Forecast
Oct-23 2,854,672 £2,156,027 Forecast
Nov-23 2,762,585 £2,295,773 Forecast
Dec-23 2,854,672 £2,571,811 Forecast
H2 2023 16,869,666 £11,873,885 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 3,621,860,032
FC Avg Therms / Day = 92,086
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £4,355,802
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £21,253,006
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.22
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Feb-24 1.50
Mar-24 1.54
Apr-24 1.68
May-24 1.75
Jun-24 1.84
Jul-24 1.95
Aug-24 2.08
Sep-24 2.22
Regards,
Https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Even on a hot day such as today 50 % of the United Kingdoms electricity needs have come from Gas & Gas powered Turbines,
Look at the time of day Solar contributions start to dwindle, all looks good for the winter time and also if it is a cold winter with high pressure systems because that tapers the effectiveness of onshore & offshore wind,
It would also be rather decent if the Australian Unions demonstrated some belligerence and dug in for a good deal for their membership!!!!!!
Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Reaches-New-2023-High.html