If you would like to ask our webinar guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund a question please submit them here.
The issue is are they competent enough to drill and tap the new wells first time because there are two that are planned, the drilling costs are quite substantial as we all come to realise if they are not delivered first time,
Regards,
12 months time there should ideally be no huge debt burdens around the neck of Angus Energy,
However I must also take on board WG's comments regarding my conservative assumption and re-evaluate it to nearer the 8mmscf/d which shall take some of the gloss of the calculations and also there always remains the possibilities of more favourable debt financing because it appears that Interest Rates have peaked and there may be more certainty regarding Business Financing and of course the options of a good winter for pricing because the tankers are already starting to bring supplies of LBG to the European Mainland and whilst the reserves and supplies are currently reasonably full a few very cold periods and they shall soon be depleated,
08/11/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2500 ***ABOVE THE AVERAGE OF 41.24 ***
08/11/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,071,313.0000
08/11/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1808 *** 6.3831 MMSCF/D ***
*** This is the 2nd Consecutive Day where Output is Significantly below the expected 90,000 Therms + would Board formally advise of reason to mitigate this unexpected Variance ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 70,676
Month To Date (Therms) = 660,597
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 6.3831
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 59.7365
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 87,323
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,477,241
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £1.2014
F/C Hedge 1 = £698,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,174,024
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,872,274
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,844,190
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Oct-23 2,748,291 £2,134,217
Nov-23 2,477,241 £1,872,274 Forecast
Dec-23 2,681,639 £2,213,861 Forecast
Q4 2023 7,907,170 £6,220,352 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,601,937
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,463,168
Sep-23 2,311,840 £1,320,691
Oct-23 2,748,291 £2,134,217
Nov-23 2,477,241 £1,872,274 Forecast
Dec-23 2,681,639 £2,213,861 Forecast
H2 2023 15,854,162 £10,606,148 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 86,504
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £211,508
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £24,329,504
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.07
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Apr-24 1.44
May-24 1.50
Jun-24 1.57
Jul-24 1.66
Aug-24 1.77
Sep-24 1.89
Oct-24 1.97
Nov-24 2.07
Regards,
Bubbles:
I clearly understand what I am posting and there are clearly large buyers still very interested in holding equity,
Bubbles is it not time you jogged of to the local Spoons for you afternoon festivities or has their Price Point even become prohibitive!!!!!!!!
Regards,
The pressure at which the gas is being extracted has naturally decreased but it was totally unrealistic to that thought to the contrary,
The Geology which was drilled into is somewhat porous and naturally difficult to extract at the same rates however most drilled gas wells show pressure decreases over a period of time,
So the two new wells that are being evaluated must be closely examined regarding the rock formation and soil sub-structures they are being drilled into and that shall determine the final stages of drill before gas extraction,
The reason that the M-Cap is currently somewhat sub-optimal is because of the uncertainty regrading the status and associated costs of the re-financing that is currently being negotiated,
Also one must respect that Paul Forrest expects a significant uplift in the M-Cap of the business otherwise he would be offloading his holding which he clearly is not doing so,
Just out of interests WG are you the secret buyer in the background who is picking up holding in batches of 1 million while the SP offers significant value because why else would you only post negativity which is easily contested by those who still have belief in the business because there have been some significant buys in recent weeks???
Regards,
Remember the Hedge comes off on 30.06.2025,
All forecasts are that Natural Gas prices to remain at about current level,
Then the GB£9 million is not that substantial and amount,
The Board of Angus Energy have clearly stated that the Business was going to be for long term investors not just those who are there for a quick buck and then bail out,
There are plenty of options for current Shareholders to Average Down because at the current SP who is actually still showing a profit,
All options for future revenue streams are being explored and the business is soluble and long term viable with plenty of potential for Carbon Capture storage,
Regards,
07/11/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2500 ***ABOVE THE AVERAGE OF 41.24 ***
07/11/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,173,333.0000
07/11/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1899 *** 6.7063 MMSCF/D ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 74,157
Month To Date (Therms) = 589,921
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 6.7063
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 53.3534
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 87,456
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,528,234
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £1.2016
F/C Hedge 1 = £698,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,235,552
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,933,802
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,904,795
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Oct-23 2,748,291 £2,134,217
Nov-23 2,528,234 £1,933,802 Forecast
Dec-23 2,684,350 £2,217,385 Forecast
Q4 2023 7,960,875 £6,285,404 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,601,937
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,463,168
Sep-23 2,311,840 £1,320,691
Oct-23 2,748,291 £2,134,217
Nov-23 2,528,234 £1,933,802 Forecast
Dec-23 2,684,350 £2,217,385 Forecast
H2 2023 15,907,867 £10,671,200 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 86,592
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £158,744
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £24,430,208
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.07
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Apr-24 1.45
May-24 1.51
Jun-24 1.58
Jul-24 1.67
Aug-24 1.78
Sep-24 1.90
Oct-24 1.98
Nov-24 2.07
Regards,
06/11/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2200 ***Below the average of 41.24 ***
06/11/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,623,333.0000
06/11/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2292 *** 8.0941 MMSCF/D ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 89,512
Month To Date (Therms) = 515,764
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 8.0941
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 46.6471
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 87,563
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,578,821
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £1.2090
F/C Hedge 1 = £698,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,304,248
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £2,002,498
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,972,461
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Oct-23 2,748,291 £2,134,217
Nov-23 2,578,821 £2,002,498 Forecast
Dec-23 2,686,492 £2,220,169 Forecast
Q4 2023 8,013,603 £6,356,884 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,601,937
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,463,168
Sep-23 2,311,840 £1,320,691
Oct-23 2,748,291 £2,134,217
Nov-23 2,578,821 £2,002,498 Forecast
Dec-23 2,686,492 £2,220,169 Forecast
H2 2023 15,960,595 £10,742,680 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 86,661
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £106,156
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £24,522,551
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.08
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Apr-24 1.46
May-24 1.52
Jun-24 1.58
Jul-24 1.68
Aug-24 1.79
Sep-24 1.91
Oct-24 1.99
Nov-24 2.08
Regards,
Bubbles:
Do a quick refresher and have a read of what you were posting as Push2 regarding the drilling at the time,
There is a huge consolation from your flipping your stance because it is the likes of you who in the first instance supported Brexit but now are clearly regretting the decision and when it comes to the ballot to rejoin the European Unions Single Market they shall distance themselves from ever having supported such a failed disastrous ideology,
The issue was the second phase of drilling was through a porous carbon geology and hence the need for the additional concrete injection and the slotted sleeve and the longer than expected cleaning up process,
Regards,
Regards,
WG818:
Concisely I am going to ask you where are the negatives within the Qualified Persons Report,
The projected Cash Flows and NPV forecasts seem reassuring,
The only downside is ensuring the drills are successful first time and that is the main reason Angus Energy have racked up huge costs to getting to the current output levels because they had to incur the costs of Three Drills for One additional Well,
As long as they drill once for each well and get the drill geology correct then good on them,
Also those who are belittling the gas price should take a closer look at those Wind-turbines which keep experiencing burn-out and the increased replacement and maintenance costs!!!!!!
As for the Hydrogen revolution one should examine the combustibility of the Gas unless I am mistaken it is Number 1 on the Periodic Table with the lightest mass and one of the most volatile of Combustible Gasses who remembers what happened to the Zeppelin?
Regards,
Bubbles as you are aware the Gas futures Market is quite volatile and swings of +/-20% in a day are quite common during the peak season which Europe & China are about to enter,
The interesting thing is even with the current dilution and Gas price volatility the SP has remained reasonably stable during the past month,
So quite frankly go and de-ramp with your other deluded colleagues elsewhere,
It shall take time but the business is gradually making progress following the huge costs it incurred from Dec 2022 to May 2023,
Daily the debt is being reduced and there is clear and open talk about new revenue streams being developed at a sustainable price point and cost base,
Regards,
Bubbles:
Think very carefully because this destroys all credibility and purpose of Brexit and the very reason Sir Boris "Big Dog Johnson" jacked and fled for the solace of the Chiltern Hills,
The Brexit Withdrawal Agreement never included any narrative about relocation of migrants from the mainland to the United Kingdom it always was the intention that either the United Kingdom rejoins the Single Market and the issue of European Union inward migration is dealt with collectively OR the transit route shall be from Spain, Greece & Italy to France before onward movement to the closest Non-European Union location to France i.e. Dover which is the destination because there are no sustainable deliverable options for the United Kingdom other than absorption, the Withdrawal Agreement was absolute tosh and the European Union even with Sir Keir Starmer in Downing Street are not going to accept return migration so the United Kingdom keeps absorbing at a hugely detrimental cost,
When the United Kingdom finally realises that the only sustainable option is Single Market Membership and a collective strategy with recourse for non-compliance shall the issue be solved,
Regarding the Trade Deals surely everyone remember the "Chants of How Many Millions of Visas for Your Trade Deals" in the lead up to the 2019 Brexit Vote and the imbeciles still managed to pass the most pathetic legislation possible and "Oven Ready Disaster" could anyone who supported the Brexit withdrawal agreement even read English because they certainly could not comprehend the rubric of the Legislation they were about to pass,
The very reason what was 48-52 is now 62-38 with two very large removals vans on their way to Downing Street for the imminent eviction of the residents at numbers 10 and 11,
If the natives could read and write to an appropriate skill level there would not be such shortfalls in the education and Health Care Sectors, if the natives who voted for Brexit could be bothered to support the Agricultural Sector there would be a more secured supply chain of domestic agricultural produce in the Supermarkets and one must think why Weatherspoon's are prospering from Brexit because that is where the Kipper encampments are now concentrated,
Accept it the Kippers were well and truly shafted hence 48-52 is now 62-38 and growing daily but the issue is the better skilled and educated Europeans are now well settled in leading European Union nations so what does the United Kingdom do when Single Market Membership results, the morons really did not think it through!!!!!!
Regards,
Bubblepoint:
Bubbles remember what was a 48-52 is now a 62-38 in favour of rejoining the European Unions Single Market,
There is an impending significant weakening in Lithium prices because renewable energy is failing to deliver any sustainability due to manufacturing and factor input costs,
Interest Rates appear to have peaked and that implied strengthening in the Oil & Gas Markets and remember when China pulls volume prices rise and at present winter has not even started in Europe,
Bubbles I also have too much sincerity to ask how much of your profits from your prudent offloading of Angus energy shares at GB£0.0180 you still have banked because in honesty you are showing levels of negativity beyond that of the reasonable man and that implies doubt in your sincerity on the Bulletin Board,
Regards,
6 solid months of production and a sustainable winter gas price per therm in the region of GB£1.40/therm and above and that should allow a significant reduction in overall debt and a favourable refinancing deal should result in another healthy uplift in the sp,
Lessons should have been learnt from the most recent drilling experience and that should help with wells 4 and 5 and this time both should be first time drilling successes with knowledge having been gained regarding the geology that is being drilled into,
Regards,
A favourable refinancing deal should act as another uplift in the
05/11/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2100 ***BELOW THE AVERAGE OF 41.24***
05/11/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,708,889.0000
05/11/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2365 *** 8.3519 MMSCF/D ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 92,431
Month To Date (Therms) = 426,252
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 8.3519
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 38.5530
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 87,547
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,557,514
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £1.2167
F/C Hedge 1 = £698,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,286,677
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,984,927
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,955,153
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Oct-23 2,748,291 £2,134,217
Nov-23 2,557,514 £1,984,927 Forecast
Dec-23 2,685,998 £2,219,527 Forecast
Q4 2023 7,991,802 £6,338,671 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,601,937
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,463,168
Sep-23 2,311,840 £1,320,691
Oct-23 2,748,291 £2,134,217
Nov-23 2,557,514 £1,984,927 Forecast
Dec-23 2,685,998 £2,219,527 Forecast
H2 2023 15,938,794 £10,724,467 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 86,645
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £119,221
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £24,500,159
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.08
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Apr-24 1.45
May-24 1.52
Jun-24 1.58
Jul-24 1.68
Aug-24 1.79
Sep-24 1.91
Oct-24 1.99
Nov-24 2.08
Regards,
04/11/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2800 ***ABOVE THE AVERAGE OF 41.24***
04/11/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,694,444.0000
04/11/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2354 *** 8.3131 MMSCF/D ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 91,938
Month To Date (Therms) = 333,821
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 8.3131
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 30.2011
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 87,507
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,503,659
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £1.2258
F/C Hedge 1 = £698,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,230,245
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,928,495
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,899,567
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Oct-23 2,748,291 £2,134,217
Nov-23 2,503,659 £1,928,495 Forecast
Dec-23 2,684,990 £2,218,217 Forecast
Q4 2023 7,936,940 £6,280,929 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,601,937
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,463,168
Sep-23 2,311,840 £1,320,691
Oct-23 2,748,291 £2,134,217
Nov-23 2,503,659 £1,928,495 Forecast
Dec-23 2,684,990 £2,218,217 Forecast
H2 2023 15,883,931 £10,666,725 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 86,613
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £157,052
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £24,441,359
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.07
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Apr-24 1.45
May-24 1.51
Jun-24 1.58
Jul-24 1.67
Aug-24 1.78
Sep-24 1.90
Oct-24 1.98
Nov-24 2.07
Regards,
03/11/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.0400 *** BELOW AVERAGE ***
03/11/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,114,444.0000
03/11/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1850 *** 6.5332 MMSCF/D ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 72,148
Month To Date (Therms) = 241,883
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 6.5332
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 21.8880
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 87,471
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,418,829
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £1.2257
F/C Hedge 1 = £698,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,126,163
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,824,413
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,797,047
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Oct-23 2,748,291 £2,134,217
Nov-23 2,418,829 £1,824,413 Forecast
Dec-23 2,684,058 £2,217,004 Forecast
Q4 2023 7,851,178 £6,175,634 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,601,937
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,463,168
Sep-23 2,311,840 £1,320,691
Oct-23 2,748,291 £2,134,217
Nov-23 2,418,829 £1,824,413 Forecast
Dec-23 2,684,058 £2,217,004 Forecast
H2 2023 15,798,169 £10,561,431 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 86,583
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £220,214
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £24,353,925
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.07
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Apr-24 1.44
May-24 1.50
Jun-24 1.56
Jul-24 1.66
Aug-24 1.77
Sep-24 1.89
Oct-24 1.97
Nov-24 2.07
Regards,
02/11/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.1500 ***BELOW AVERAGE ***
02/11/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,455,556.0000
02/11/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2146 *** 7.5785 MMSCF/D ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 83,787
Month To Date (Therms) = 169,735
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.5785
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 15.3548
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 87,599
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,546,027
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £1.2255
F/C Hedge 1 = £698,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,281,871
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,980,121
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,950,419
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Oct-23 2,748,291 £2,134,217
Nov-23 2,546,027 £1,980,121 Forecast
Dec-23 2,686,600 £2,220,310 Forecast
Q4 2023 7,980,917 £6,334,647 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,601,937
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,463,168
Sep-23 2,311,840 £1,320,691
Oct-23 2,748,291 £2,134,217
Nov-23 2,546,027 £1,980,121 Forecast
Dec-23 2,686,600 £2,220,310 Forecast
H2 2023 15,927,909 £10,720,443 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 86,665
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £117,529
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £24,510,764
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.08
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Apr-24 1.45
May-24 1.52
Jun-24 1.58
Jul-24 1.68
Aug-24 1.79
Sep-24 1.91
Oct-24 1.99
Nov-24 2.08
Regards,
01/11/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.1100 ***BELOW AVERAGE***
01/11/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,518,889.0000
01/11/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2202 *** 7.7763 MMSCF/D ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 85,948
Month To Date (Therms) = 85,948
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.7763
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 7.7763
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 87,631
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,578,442
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £1.2158
F/C Hedge 1 = £698,250
F/C Market Revenue = £1,311,116
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £2,009,366
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,979,225
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Oct-23 2,748,291 £2,134,217
Nov-23 2,578,442 £2,009,366 Forecast
Dec-23 2,687,110 £2,220,972 Forecast
Q4 2023 8,013,842 £6,364,555 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,601,937
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,463,168
Sep-23 2,311,840 £1,320,691
Oct-23 2,748,291 £2,134,217
Nov-23 2,578,442 £2,009,366 Forecast
Dec-23 2,687,110 £2,220,972 Forecast
H2 2023 15,960,834 £10,750,351 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 86,681
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £98,013
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £24,540,952
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.08
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Apr-24 1.46
May-24 1.52
Jun-24 1.58
Jul-24 1.68
Aug-24 1.79
Sep-24 1.91
Oct-24 1.99
Nov-24 2.08
Regards,
31/10/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2900 ***ABOVE AVERAGE***
31/10/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,701,111.0000
31/10/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2354 *** 8.3131 MMSCF/D ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 92,166
Month To Date (Therms) = 2,748,291
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 8.3131
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 248.2021
Average Per Day (Therms) From 06.07.2023= 87,645
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,748,291
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £1.1789
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £1,412,692
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £2,134,217
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £2,102,204
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2023 Q3 Therms & Revenue
Oct-23 2,748,291 £2,134,217 Forecast
Nov-23 2,629,344 £2,071,525 Forecast
Dec-23 2,716,989 £2,259,815 Forecast
Q4 2023 8,094,624 £6,465,557 Forecast
H2 2023 Therms & Revenue
Jul-23 2,957,493 £1,601,937
Aug-23 2,677,659 £1,463,168
Sep-23 2,311,840 £1,320,691
Oct-23 2,748,291 £2,134,217 Forecast
Nov-23 2,629,344 £2,071,525 Forecast
Dec-23 2,716,989 £2,259,815 Forecast
H2 2023 16,041,615 £10,851,353 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.05mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 87,645
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,040,788
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £23,772,797
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 2.03
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Mar-24 1.36
Apr-24 1.48
May-24 1.55
Jun-24 1.61
Jul-24 1.71
Aug-24 1.83
Sep-24 1.95
Oct-24 2.03
Regards,