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24/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3500 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
24/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,485,556.0000 *** 7.6456 MMSCF/D ***
24/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2165 *** 84,811 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm: 25.01.2023 = £1.47
Gas Price Per Therm: 25.01.2024 = £0.69
Year On Year Variance = - 53.10% and narrowing thus giving more certainty to projected cash flows and financing of the 2024/2025 well,
Daily Output (Therms) = 84,811
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,979,687
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.6456
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 178.7840
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 77,437
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,557,095
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7647
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £770,170
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,491,695
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,469,320
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,557,095 £1,491,695 Forecast
Feb-24 2,392,121 £1,617,096 Forecast
Mar-24 2,557,095 £1,728,620 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,506,312 £4,837,412 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,557,095 £1,491,695 Forecast
Feb-24 2,392,121 £1,617,096 Forecast
Mar-24 2,557,095 £1,728,620 Forecast
Apr-24 2,474,608 £1,508,608 Forecast
May-24 2,557,095 £1,558,895 Forecast
Jun-24 2,474,608 £1,508,608 Forecast
H1 2024 15,012,624 £9,413,524 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.45mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 82,487
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,502,711
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £16,151,605
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.56
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
May-24 1.15
Jun-24 1.15
Jul-24 1.26
Aug-24 1.31
Sep-24 1.36
Oct-24 1.44
Nov-24 1.48
Dec-24 1.56
Regards,
There has been considerable prose on this Bulletin Board regarding the Weakness in the Natural Gas Price during Q4 2023 and Q1 2024,
One very interesting metric for those of you who compare Year On Year Metrics and use that as a mechanism of gauging future sustainability of the Sector and Angus Energy,
11 Dec 2023 was probably the bleakest day regarding the adversity of YoY comparators:
11.12.2022: £3.84 per Therm and 11.12.2023: £0.91 per Therm an adverse variance of 76.31%,
24.01.2023: £1.52 per Therm and 24.01.2024: £0.68 per Therm an adverse variance of 55.17%,
Todays equivalent YoY comparators show weakness but the % variance of the weakness is reducing significantly in the 6 weeks from 11.12.2023 to the present this variance has reduced from -76.31% to -55.17% implying we are very close to seeing the bottoming out in the share price and that naturally implies an upturn based on the Price weakness in the market having been cleansed and a more sustainable financing deal in place in addition to the agreed Prices for the Hedged Output to be completed at the End of June 2025 which is now only some 16 months away plus the additional receipts and output from a further well being brought online during Q4 2024 and Q1 2025,
Bring on the new financing deal and in an ideal world we should see favourable borrowing plus a favourable gas price and all being well a favourable re-rating from the brokers,
Regards,
23/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2900 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
23/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,480,000.0000 *** 7.6386 MMSCF/D ***
23/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2163 24/01/2024 12:01 *** 84,621 THERMS ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 84,621
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,894,876
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.6386
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 171.1384
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 77,349
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,553,963
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7679
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £770,927
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,492,452
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,470,065
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,553,963 £1,492,452 Forecast
Feb-24 2,389,191 £1,614,166 Forecast
Mar-24 2,553,963 £1,725,488 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,497,118 £4,832,107 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,553,963 £1,492,452 Forecast
Feb-24 2,389,191 £1,614,166 Forecast
Mar-24 2,553,963 £1,725,488 Forecast
Apr-24 2,471,577 £1,505,577 Forecast
May-24 2,553,963 £1,555,763 Forecast
Jun-24 2,471,577 £1,505,577 Forecast
H1 2024 14,994,236 £9,399,025 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.44mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 82,386
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,519,113
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £16,098,393
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.55
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
May-24 1.15
Jun-24 1.15
Jul-24 1.26
Aug-24 1.31
Sep-24 1.36
Oct-24 1.44
Nov-24 1.48
Dec-24 1.55
Regards,
22/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3000 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
22/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,510,000.0000 *** 7.7198 MMSCF/D ***
22/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2186 *** 85,645 THERMS ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 85,645
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,810,255
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.7198
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 163.4999
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 77,261
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,550,814
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7717
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £772,289
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,493,814
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,471,407
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,550,814 £1,493,814 Forecast
Feb-24 2,386,245 £1,611,220 Forecast
Mar-24 2,550,814 £1,722,339 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,487,873 £4,827,373 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,550,814 £1,493,814 Forecast
Feb-24 2,386,245 £1,611,220 Forecast
Mar-24 2,550,814 £1,722,339 Forecast
Apr-24 2,468,529 £1,502,529 Forecast
May-24 2,550,814 £1,552,614 Forecast
Jun-24 2,468,529 £1,502,529 Forecast
H1 2024 14,975,745 £9,385,045 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.43mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 82,284
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,535,284
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £16,045,859
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.55
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
May-24 1.15
Jun-24 1.15
Jul-24 1.26
Aug-24 1.31
Sep-24 1.36
Oct-24 1.43
Nov-24 1.48
Dec-24 1.55
Regards,
For those of you on the call earlier today please correct me if I misheard and please correct me if I am mistaken with my analysis:
https://www.uogplc.com/uk-onshore/
UOG: 26.25% Working Interest,
Coming Online: Q3/Q4 2024,
Operating Costs: GB£15.00 per Barrel,
P90 Output 500 boe/d,
Assumption based on US$80.00/barrel of Oil at US$1.33/GB£1.00 = GB£60.00 per Barrel,
(26.25% Ownership) x (500 boe/d) x (£60.00 Revenue - £15.00 Opex) x 365 Days = GB£2,155,781.25 Gross Revenue p.a.
Then Multiply that by the industry sector PE Ratio and we have a Share Price already x4 or x5 the current
To that add in the potential of a highly probable Jamaica Farm Out,
The maths alone confirm what Brian Larkin mentioned on the call earlier today that any further placement to fund operational expenditure was / is significantly unlikely,
Also further add the negative sentiments regarding EV's and the fact that the European Union is looking more and more likely to push back its timelines re stopping the sale of New Combustion vehicles to probably 2035 and for Diesel Vehicle Lorries & Trucks to 2040,
Regards,
21/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2600 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
21/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,513,333.0000 *** 7.7410 MMSCF/D ***
21/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2192 *** 85,758 THERMS ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 85,758
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,724,610
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.7410
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 155.7801
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 77,159
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,545,853
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7765
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £773,303
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,494,828
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,472,405
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,545,853 £1,494,828 Forecast
Feb-24 2,381,604 £1,606,579 Forecast
Mar-24 2,545,853 £1,717,378 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,473,311 £4,818,785 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,545,853 £1,494,828 Forecast
Feb-24 2,381,604 £1,606,579 Forecast
Mar-24 2,545,853 £1,717,378 Forecast
Apr-24 2,463,729 £1,497,729 Forecast
May-24 2,545,853 £1,547,653 Forecast
Jun-24 2,463,729 £1,497,729 Forecast
H1 2024 14,946,621 £9,361,896 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.42mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 82,124
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,561,362
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £15,961,280
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.55
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
May-24 1.15
Jun-24 1.15
Jul-24 1.26
Aug-24 1.31
Sep-24 1.36
Oct-24 1.43
Nov-24 1.47
Dec-24 1.55
Regards,
Remember the Share Price forecast is based as a Tracker and in honesty the gas price at present is very weak, though remember a weak gas price shall place huge pressures upon the Renewables sector to provide their energy competitively as their costing models are coming under more and more scrutiny,
I strongly believe that the share price forecasts would be deliverable if it was not for the current challenging market conditions regarding Gas Price,
As the gas prices recover so shall the Share Price the current output levels are not unreasonable and there is going to be promising news regarding the upcoming re-financing deal plus the prospective new wells coming on line in 2024 Q4/2025 Q1 and this time we are already aware of the drilling issues to be dealt with and hopefully how to deal with those in the most cost effective manner,
Regards,
20/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2200 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
20/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,524,444.0000 *** 7.7834 MMSCF/D ***
20/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2204 *** 86,138 THERMS***
Daily Output (Therms) = 86,138
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,638,852
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.7834
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 148.0391
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 77,053
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,540,220
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7819
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £774,206
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,495,731
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,473,295
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,220 £1,495,731 Forecast
Feb-24 2,376,335 £1,601,310 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,220 £1,711,745 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,456,775 £4,808,786 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,220 £1,495,731 Forecast
Feb-24 2,376,335 £1,601,310 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,220 £1,711,745 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,277 £1,492,277 Forecast
May-24 2,540,220 £1,542,020 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,277 £1,492,277 Forecast
H1 2024 14,913,550 £9,335,361 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.4mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,943
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,591,109
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £15,864,834
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.54
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
May-24 1.15
Jun-24 1.15
Jul-24 1.26
Aug-24 1.30
Sep-24 1.35
Oct-24 1.43
Nov-24 1.47
Dec-24 1.54
Regards,
19/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2700 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24***
19/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,557,778.0000 *** 7.8822 MMSCF/D ***
19/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2232 *** 87,275 THERMS ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 87,275
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,552,714
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.8822
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 140.2557
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 76,939
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,533,376
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7861
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £772,992
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,494,517
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,472,099
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,533,376 £1,494,517 Forecast
Feb-24 2,369,932 £1,594,907 Forecast
Mar-24 2,533,376 £1,704,901 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,436,683 £4,794,325 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,533,376 £1,494,517 Forecast
Feb-24 2,369,932 £1,594,907 Forecast
Mar-24 2,533,376 £1,704,901 Forecast
Apr-24 2,451,654 £1,485,654 Forecast
May-24 2,533,376 £1,535,176 Forecast
Jun-24 2,451,654 £1,485,654 Forecast
H1 2024 14,873,366 £9,300,808 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.38mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,722
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,628,498
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £15,743,891
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.54
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
May-24 1.15
Jun-24 1.15
Jul-24 1.25
Aug-24 1.30
Sep-24 1.35
Oct-24 1.42
Nov-24 1.46
Dec-24 1.54
Regards,
18/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3700 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
18/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,558,889.0000 *** 7.8716 MMSCF/D ***
18/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2229 *** 87,313 THERMS ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 87,313
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,465,439
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.8716
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 132.3735
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 76,808
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,523,812
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7907
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £770,003
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,491,528
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,469,155
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,523,812 £1,491,528 Forecast
Feb-24 2,360,985 £1,585,960 Forecast
Mar-24 2,523,812 £1,695,337 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,408,609 £4,772,825 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,523,812 £1,491,528 Forecast
Feb-24 2,360,985 £1,585,960 Forecast
Mar-24 2,523,812 £1,695,337 Forecast
Apr-24 2,442,398 £1,476,398 Forecast
May-24 2,523,812 £1,525,612 Forecast
Jun-24 2,442,398 £1,476,398 Forecast
H1 2024 14,817,217 £9,251,234 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.35mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,413
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,681,440
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £15,572,796
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.53
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
May-24 1.15
Jun-24 1.15
Jul-24 1.25
Aug-24 1.29
Sep-24 1.34
Oct-24 1.41
Nov-24 1.45
Dec-24 1.53
Regards,
17/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2900 *** AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
17/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,546,667.0000 *** 7.8434 MMSCF/D ***
17/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2221 *** 86,896 THERMS ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 86,896
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,378,126
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.8434
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 124.5019
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 76,674
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,513,054
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7949
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £765,574
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,487,099
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,464,793
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,513,054 £1,487,099 Forecast
Feb-24 2,350,921 £1,575,896 Forecast
Mar-24 2,513,054 £1,684,579 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,377,028 £4,747,574 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,513,054 £1,487,099 Forecast
Feb-24 2,350,921 £1,575,896 Forecast
Mar-24 2,513,054 £1,684,579 Forecast
Apr-24 2,431,987 £1,465,987 Forecast
May-24 2,513,054 £1,514,854 Forecast
Jun-24 2,431,987 £1,465,987 Forecast
H1 2024 14,754,056 £9,194,402 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.32mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,066
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,741,567
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £15,378,602
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.52
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
May-24 1.15
Jun-24 1.15
Jul-24 1.15
Aug-24 1.29
Sep-24 1.33
Oct-24 1.41
Nov-24 1.44
Dec-24 1.52
Regards,
16/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3600 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
16/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,397,778.0000 *** 7.3914 MMSCF/D ***
16/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2093 *** 81,815 THERMS ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 81,816
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,291,230
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.3914
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 116.6585
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 76,541
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,501,759
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.8005
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £761,883
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,483,408
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,461,157
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,501,759 £1,483,408 Forecast
Feb-24 2,340,355 £1,565,330 Forecast
Mar-24 2,501,759 £1,673,284 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,343,872 £4,722,021 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,501,759 £1,483,408 Forecast
Feb-24 2,340,355 £1,565,330 Forecast
Mar-24 2,501,759 £1,673,284 Forecast
Apr-24 2,421,057 £1,455,057 Forecast
May-24 2,501,759 £1,503,559 Forecast
Jun-24 2,421,057 £1,455,057 Forecast
H1 2024 14,687,744 £9,135,693 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.29mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 80,702
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,804,178
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £15,176,276
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.50
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
May-24 1.15
Jun-24 1.15
Jul-24 1.15
Aug-24 1.28
Sep-24 1.33
Oct-24 1.40
Nov-24 1.43
Dec-24 1.50
Regards,
15/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3100 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
15/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,451,111.0000 *** 7.5609 MMSCF/D ***
15/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2141 *** 83,635 THERMS ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 83,635
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,209,415
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.5609
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 109.2671
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 76,471
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,499,457
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.8062
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £765,405
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,486,930
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,464,626
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,499,457 £1,486,930 Forecast
Feb-24 2,338,202 £1,563,177 Forecast
Mar-24 2,499,457 £1,670,982 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,337,116 £4,721,088 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,499,457 £1,486,930 Forecast
Feb-24 2,338,202 £1,563,177 Forecast
Mar-24 2,499,457 £1,670,982 Forecast
Apr-24 2,418,829 £1,452,829 Forecast
May-24 2,499,457 £1,501,257 Forecast
Jun-24 2,418,829 £1,452,829 Forecast
H1 2024 14,674,231 £9,128,004 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.28mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 80,628
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,814,634
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £15,141,991
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.50
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
May-24 1.15
Jun-24 1.15
Jul-24 1.15
Aug-24 1.28
Sep-24 1.33
Oct-24 1.40
Nov-24 1.43
Dec-24 1.50
Regards,
14/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2300 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
14/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,497,778.0000 *** 7.7021 MMSCF/D ***
14/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2181 *** 85,227 THERMS ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 85,228
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,125,779
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.7021
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 101.7062
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 76,376
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,492,797
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.8100
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £763,666
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,485,191
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,462,913
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,492,797 £1,485,191 Forecast
Feb-24 2,331,971 £1,556,946 Forecast
Mar-24 2,492,797 £1,664,322 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,317,565 £4,706,459 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,492,797 £1,485,191 Forecast
Feb-24 2,331,971 £1,556,946 Forecast
Mar-24 2,492,797 £1,664,322 Forecast
Apr-24 2,412,384 £1,446,384 Forecast
May-24 2,492,797 £1,494,597 Forecast
Jun-24 2,412,384 £1,446,384 Forecast
H1 2024 14,635,131 £9,093,824 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.26mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 80,413
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,851,316
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £15,023,401
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.50
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
May-24 1.15
Jun-24 1.15
Jul-24 1.15
Aug-24 1.28
Sep-24 1.32
Oct-24 1.39
Nov-24 1.43
Dec-24 1.50
Regards,
13/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2800 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24***
13/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,517,778.0000 *** 7.7586 MMSCF/D ***
13/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2197 *** 85,910 THERMS ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 85,910
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,040,552
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.7586
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 94.0041
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 76,256
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,481,315
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.8136
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £757,758
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,479,283
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,457,094
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,481,315 £1,479,283 Forecast
Feb-24 2,321,230 £1,546,205 Forecast
Mar-24 2,481,315 £1,652,840 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,283,861 £4,678,329 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,481,315 £1,479,283 Forecast
Feb-24 2,321,230 £1,546,205 Forecast
Mar-24 2,481,315 £1,652,840 Forecast
Apr-24 2,401,273 £1,435,273 Forecast
May-24 2,481,315 £1,483,115 Forecast
Jun-24 2,401,273 £1,435,273 Forecast
H1 2024 14,567,722 £9,031,990 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.23mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 80,042
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,916,124
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £14,814,229
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.48
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
May-24 1.15
Jun-24 1.15
Jul-24 1.15
Aug-24 1.27
Sep-24 1.31
Oct-24 1.38
Nov-24 1.42
Dec-24 1.48
Regards,
12/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3500 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24***
12/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,581,111.0000 *** 7.9529 MMSCF/D ***
12/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2252 *** 88,071 THERMS ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 88,071
Month To Date (Therms) = 954,641
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.9529
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 86.2455
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 76,124
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,466,157
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.8152
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £746,809
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,468,334
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,446,309
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,466,157 £1,468,334 Forecast
Feb-24 2,307,050 £1,532,025 Forecast
Mar-24 2,466,157 £1,637,682 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,239,364 £4,638,041 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,466,157 £1,468,334 Forecast
Feb-24 2,307,050 £1,532,025 Forecast
Mar-24 2,466,157 £1,637,682 Forecast
Apr-24 2,386,604 £1,420,604 Forecast
May-24 2,466,157 £1,467,957 Forecast
Jun-24 2,386,604 £1,420,604 Forecast
H1 2024 14,478,728 £8,947,205 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.19mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 79,553
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £3,003,380
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £14,532,960
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.47
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
May-24 1.15
Jun-24 1.15
Jul-24 1.15
Aug-24 1.26
Sep-24 1.30
Oct-24 1.37
Nov-24 1.40
Dec-24 1.47
Regards,
11/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2900 ***Avg Cal Value 41.24 ***
11/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,568,889.0000 *** 87,654 Therms ***
11/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2242 *** 7.9175 MMSCF/D ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 87,654
Month To Date (Therms) = 866,570
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.9175
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 78.2926
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 75,958
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,442,153
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.8169
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £728,814
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,450,339
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,428,584
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,442,153 £1,450,339 Forecast
Feb-24 2,284,594 £1,509,569 Forecast
Mar-24 2,442,153 £1,613,678 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,168,899 £4,573,586 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,442,153 £1,450,339 Forecast
Feb-24 2,284,594 £1,509,569 Forecast
Mar-24 2,442,153 £1,613,678 Forecast
Apr-24 2,363,373 £1,397,373 Forecast
May-24 2,442,153 £1,443,953 Forecast
Jun-24 2,363,373 £1,397,373 Forecast
H1 2024 14,337,799 £8,812,285 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 6.87mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 78,779
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £3,141,912
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £14,086,481
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.45
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
May-24 1.15
Jun-24 1.15
Jul-24 1.15
Aug-24 1.15
Sep-24 1.29
Oct-24 1.35
Nov-24 1.38
Dec-24 1.45
Regards,
10/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3000 ***Average Cal Val 41.24***
10/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,515,556.0000 *** 7.7445 MMSCF/D ***
10/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2193 *** 85,834 Therms ***
***It would be good if the Output Levers Were To Hold & A Favourable Re-Financing Deal To Be Implemented***
Daily Output (Therms) = 85,834
Month To Date (Therms) = 778,916
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.7445
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 70.3751
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 75,793
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,414,640
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.8189
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £708,093
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,429,618
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,408,174
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,414,640 £1,429,618 Forecast
Feb-24 2,258,857 £1,483,832 Forecast
Mar-24 2,414,640 £1,586,165 Forecast
Apr-24 2,336,748 £1,370,748 Forecast
May-24 2,414,640 £1,416,440 Forecast
Jun-24 2,336,748 £1,370,748 Forecast
H1 2024 14,176,273 £8,657,551 Forecast
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,414,640 £1,429,618 Forecast
Feb-24 2,258,857 £1,483,832 Forecast
Mar-24 2,414,640 £1,586,165 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,088,137 £4,499,615 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 6.85mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 77,892
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £3,300,741
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £13,574,596
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.42
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
May-24 1.15
Jun-24 1.15
Jul-24 1.15
Aug-24 1.15
Sep-24 1.27
Oct-24 1.33
Nov-24 1.36
Dec-24 1.42
Regards,
09/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3400 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
09/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,412,222.0000 *** 7.4373 MMSCF/D ***
09/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2106 *** 82,308 THERMS ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 82,308
Month To Date (Therms) = 693,082
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.4373
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 62.6306
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 75,650
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,387,282
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.8242
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £690,079
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,411,604
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,390,430
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,387,282 £1,411,604 Forecast
Feb-24 2,233,264 £1,458,239 Forecast
Mar-24 2,387,282 £1,558,807 Forecast
Apr-24 2,310,273 £1,344,273 Forecast
May-24 2,387,282 £1,389,082 Forecast
Jun-24 2,310,273 £1,344,273 Forecast
H1 2024 14,015,654 £8,506,276 Forecast
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,387,282 £1,411,604 Forecast
Feb-24 2,233,264 £1,458,239 Forecast
Mar-24 2,387,282 £1,558,807 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,007,827 £4,428,649 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 6.84mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 77,009
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £3,457,284
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £13,069,790
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.39
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
May-24 1.15
Jun-24 1.15
Jul-24 1.15
Aug-24 1.15
Sep-24 1.25
Oct-24 1.31
Nov-24 1.33
Dec-24 1.39
Regards,