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25/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2900 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.2500***
25/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,013,333.0000 *** 6.2083 MMSCF/D ***
25/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1758 *** 68,698 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 26.02.24 = £0.58
Gas Price Per Therm 26.02.23 = £1.28
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 54.83 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 68,698
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,813,809
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 6.2083
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 163.7601
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 77,753
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,104,018
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.6391
F/C Hedge 1 = £674,975
F/C Market Revenue = £481,469
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,156,444
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,139,097
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,254,846 £1,156,444 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,335,601 £4,135,736 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,254,846 £1,156,444 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,430 £1,300,744 Forecast
May-24 2,540,377 £1,245,064 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,430 £1,204,901 Forecast
H1 2024 14,792,838 £7,886,445 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.35mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,948
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,833,440
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £13,832,364
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.51
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
24/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3200 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
24/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1,963,333.0000 *** 6.0494 MMSCF/D ***
24/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1713 *** 66,992 THERMS ***
23/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3000 ***AVG CAL VAL 41.24 ***
23/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1,984,444.0000 *** 6.1130 MMSCF/D ***
23/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1731 *** 67,712 THERMS ***
22/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3700 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.2499 ***
22/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,007,778.0000 *** 6.1977 MMSCF/D ***
22/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1755 *** 68,508 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 23.02.24 = £0.56
Gas Price Per Therm 23.02.23 = £1.25
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 55.11 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 68,508
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,610,407
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 6.1977
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 145.3894
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 78,317
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,122,809
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.6470
F/C Hedge 1 = £674,975
F/C Market Revenue = £495,303
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,170,278
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,152,723
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,271,184 £1,170,278 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,351,939 £4,149,570 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,271,184 £1,170,278 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,430 £1,300,744 Forecast
May-24 2,540,377 £1,245,064 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,430 £1,204,901 Forecast
H1 2024 14,809,176 £7,900,279 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.35mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,948
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,829,461
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £13,844,361
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.51
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
21/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2300 ***Avg Cal Value 41.2494 ***
21/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,018,787.0000 *** 6.2249 MMSCF/D ***
21/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1763 *** 68,884 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 22.02.24 = £0.58
Gas Price Per Therm 22.02.23 = £1.25
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 53.38 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 68,884
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,541,899
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 6.2249
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 139.1917
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 78,505
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,129,289
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.6509
F/C Hedge 1 = £674,975
F/C Market Revenue = £500,073
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,175,048
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,157,422
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,276,654 £1,175,048 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,357,409 £4,154,340 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,276,654 £1,175,048 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,430 £1,300,744 Forecast
May-24 2,540,377 £1,245,064 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,430 £1,204,901 Forecast
H1 2024 14,814,646 £7,905,049 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.35mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,948
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,827,525
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £13,850,199
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.51
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
20/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2800 ***Avg Cal Value 41.2495 ***
20/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,015,556.0000 6.2119 MMDCF/D ***
20/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1759 *** 68,774 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 21.02.24 = £0.58
Gas Price Per Therm 21.02.23 = £1.21
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 51.73 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 68,774
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,473,015
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 6.2119
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 132.9668
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 78,694
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,135,872
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.6541
F/C Hedge 1 = £674,975
F/C Market Revenue = £504,919
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,179,894
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,162,195
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,282,125 £1,179,894 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,362,880 £4,159,186 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,282,125 £1,179,894 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,430 £1,300,744 Forecast
May-24 2,540,377 £1,245,064 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,430 £1,204,901 Forecast
H1 2024 14,820,117 £7,909,895 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.35mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,948
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,825,934
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £13,854,994
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.51
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
19/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2800 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.2495 ***
19/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,012,222.0000 *** 6.2013 MMSCF/D ***
19/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1756 *** 68,660 THERMS ***
Https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
Those of you who are expressing pessimism regarding the Gas Price should have a look at the 5 year chart from the attached link,
A classic Head & Shoulders price pattern and as the global economy comes out of the current financial squeeze there is an expected uplift in future gas prices,
There is certainly no pessimism amongst the Gas Producers the concerns and alarm bells are ringing at all those windfarms which have borrowed huge sums on promises of high KWh electricity prices which simply are not materialising and it is their financial models which are coming under pressure,
Remember what is the scope for Carbon Capture Storage for a wind turbine????
Keep the faith and China use financial stimulus as wisely as Europe & the United States have done so to minimise the potential impacts of tighter global fiscal policies,
China has accumulated Huge Gold reserves and with the high current price of Gold use the revenue from disposal of some of its huge reserves to facilitate Central Government investment in the Property Sector which President Xi Jinping can drip feed back into the economy as and when the stimulus package takes full effect and China sees and economic recovery,
I would call that Classic Old School Economics
Thank God For Grammar Schools!!!!!!!!!!!!
18/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2900 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.2494 ***
18/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1,971,111.0000 *** 6.0741 MMSCF/D ***
18/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1720 *** 67,257 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 19.02.24 = £0.59
Gas Price Per Therm 19.02.23 = £1.21
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 50.8 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 67,257
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,335,581
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 6.0741
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 120.5537
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 79,101
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,151,770
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.6612
F/C Hedge 1 = £674,975
F/C Market Revenue = £516,623
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,191,598
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,173,724
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,293,935 £1,191,598 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,374,690 £4,170,890 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,293,935 £1,191,598 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,430 £1,300,744 Forecast
May-24 2,540,377 £1,245,064 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,430 £1,204,901 Forecast
H1 2024 14,831,926 £7,921,599 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.35mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,948
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,822,372
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £13,865,732
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.51
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
17/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3600 *** AVG CAL VALUE 41.2494***
17/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,010,000.0000 *** 6.1907 MMSCF/D ***
17/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1753 *** 68,584 THERMS ***
There is going to be a significant uplift to the Jamaican economy in the form of Tax receipts remember the Government has a percentage stake in the project as outlined within the presentation,
The project supplements the Leisure & Hospitality sector which is located in the North of the Island and the Oil Reserves are off the South Coast,
The real dividend to the male workforce is the employment created on the Rigs remember the added value North Sea Oil & Gas brought to Aberdeen & the Scottish Economy,
The high value employment that shall be created shall fund the future college education of the children of those working on the Oil Rigs and for the affiliated Support Sector Businesses, remember the wells have a requirement for ancillary products and support services,
As the Jamaican Economy grows as as result of the Oil & Gas project there is a multiplier effect to the economy,
An absolute Win Win for the Country, Its Economy & For All Genuine Stakeholders,
Regards,
16/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3400 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.2492 ***
16/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,000,000.0000 *** 6.1589 MMSCF/D ***
16/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1744 *** 68,243 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 17.02.24 = £0.60
Gas Price Per Therm 17.02.23 = £1.24
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 51.19 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 68,243
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,199,740
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 6.1589
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 108.2889
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 79,577
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,174,529
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.6687
F/C Hedge 1 = £674,975
F/C Market Revenue = £533,377
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,208,352
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,190,227
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,307,732 £1,208,352 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,388,487 £4,187,645 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,307,732 £1,208,352 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,430 £1,300,744 Forecast
May-24 2,540,377 £1,245,064 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,430 £1,204,901 Forecast
H1 2024 14,845,724 £7,938,353 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.35mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,948
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,818,665
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £13,876,910
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.51
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
15/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3300 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
15/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1,987,778.0000 *** 6.1236 MMSCF/D ***
15/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1734 *** 67,826 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 16.02.24 = £0.60
Gas Price Per Therm 16.02.23 = £1.32
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 54.22 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 67,826
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,131,497
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 6.1236
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 102.1300
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 79,823
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,187,562
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.6728
F/C Hedge 1 = £674,975
F/C Market Revenue = £542,972
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,217,947
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,199,677
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,314,878 £1,217,947 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,395,632 £4,197,239 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,314,878 £1,217,947 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,430 £1,300,744 Forecast
May-24 2,540,377 £1,245,064 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,430 £1,204,901 Forecast
H1 2024 14,852,869 £7,947,947 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.35mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,948
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,816,614
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £13,883,095
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.51
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
14/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3300 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
14/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1,995,556.0000 *** 6.1448 MMSCF/D ***
14/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1740 *** 68,091 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 15.02.24 = £0.62
Gas Price Per Therm 15.02.23 = £1.35
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 53.76 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 68,091
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,063,672
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 6.1448
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 96.0065
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 80,090
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,203,320
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.6773
F/C Hedge 1 = £674,975
F/C Market Revenue = £554,572
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,229,547
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,211,104
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,322,609 £1,229,547 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,403,364 £4,208,839 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,322,609 £1,229,547 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,430 £1,300,744 Forecast
May-24 2,540,377 £1,245,064 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,430 £1,204,901 Forecast
H1 2024 14,860,601 £7,959,548 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.35mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,948
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,814,335
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £13,889,964
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.51
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
13/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2800 *** AVG CAL VALUE 41.24***
13/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1,954,444.0000 *** 6.0176 MMSCF/D ***
13/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1704 *** 66,688 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 14.02.24 = £0.61
Gas Price Per Therm 14.02.23 = £1.32
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 53.33 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 66,688
Month To Date (Therms) = 995,580
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 6.0176
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 89.8617
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 80,363
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,220,910
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.6811
F/C Hedge 1 = £674,975
F/C Market Revenue = £567,522
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,242,497
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,223,859
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,330,518 £1,242,497 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,411,272 £4,221,789 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,330,518 £1,242,497 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,430 £1,300,744 Forecast
May-24 2,540,377 £1,245,064 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,430 £1,204,901 Forecast
H1 2024 14,868,509 £7,972,498 Forecast
Regards,
There were some sizeable stakeholders who offloaded at about £0.0120 about 4 months ago, it would be good to see some of the big players showing their support and confidence in the ability to deliver,
12/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3000 *** AVG CAL VALUE 41.2485 ***
12/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1,524,444.0000 *** 4.7074 MMSCF/D ***
12/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1333 *** 52,016 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 13.02.24 = £0.64
Gas Price Per Therm 13.02.23 = £1.29
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 50.47 % *** GRADUAL FAVOURABLE ALIGNMENT ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 52,016
Month To Date (Therms) = 928,892
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 4.7074
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 83.8441
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 80,681
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,244,822
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.6863
F/C Hedge 1 = £674,975
F/C Market Revenue = £585,125
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,260,100
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,241,199
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,339,740 £1,260,100 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,420,495 £4,239,392 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,339,740 £1,260,100 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,430 £1,300,744 Forecast
May-24 2,540,377 £1,245,064 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,430 £1,204,901 Forecast
H1 2024 14,877,731 £7,990,101 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.35mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,948
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,809,856
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £13,903,469
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.51
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
It is evident that Crude has been oversold and the prices are stabilising,
The United States of America shall soon be moving into their peak spring & summer seasons and the stocks are starting to dwindle,
The Chinese Government has just announced a period of financial stimulus and that is also helping to support the price,
Waddock Cross shall soon be coming on line and that shall be a boost for cashflow,
The presentation and ongoing communications regarding Jamaica are also being seen as a huge positive,
There are huge question marks being raised regarding the financial sustainability of renewables and naturally when Renewable have sustainability issues the confidence soon returns to the hydro-chemicals sector,
Https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/german-wind-turbine-producer-nordex-posts-sales-increase-for-2023/ar-BB1i97po?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=8a00229dca884137b685da6fb3dd4893&ei=92
What looks good re top line revenue does not always indicate a healthy bottom line for sustainable future investment and the price of renewable KWh electricity is coming under pressure which is an absolute bonus for our sector,
Regards,
Https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/german-wind-turbine-producer-nordex-posts-sales-increase-for-2023/ar-BB1i97po?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=8a00229dca884137b685da6fb3dd4893&ei=92
Have a read of the article, whilst top line revenue looks healthy for the renewables sector their EBITDA is onlyu at breakeven
"Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) reached break-even on a full-year basis at €2.0 million, compared to minus €244 million in the prior year".
The price for renewable energy is too low and must increase as the price for renewable energy increases there shall be a substitution effect in favour of our sector and that shall pull the price of Gas and LNG in an upward direction,
The downside in gas price must relent sooner than later this is an ideal opportunity to start buying the dip,
Keep the faith,
11/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2600 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
11/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,293,333.0000 *** 7.0594 MMSCF/D ***
11/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1999 *** 78,252 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 12.02.24 = £0.64
Gas Price Per Therm 12.02.23 = £1.35
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 52.62 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 78,252
Month To Date (Therms) = 876,876
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.0594
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 79.1366
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 81,363
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,311,764
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.6903
F/C Hedge 1 = £674,975
F/C Market Revenue = £634,405
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,309,380
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,289,740
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,359,532 £1,309,380 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,440,287 £4,288,672 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,359,532 £1,309,380 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,430 £1,300,744 Forecast
May-24 2,540,377 £1,245,064 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,430 £1,204,901 Forecast
H1 2024 14,897,524 £8,039,381 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.35mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,948
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,807,859
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £13,909,489
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.51
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,