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10/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2200 *** AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
10/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,297,778.0000 *** 7.0771 MMSCF/D ***
10/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2004 *** 78,403 THERMS ***
09/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.4100 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
09/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,293,333.0000 *** 7.0523 MMSCF/D ***
09/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1997 *** 78,252 THERMS ***
08/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.5000 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
08/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,294,444.0000 *** 7.0841 MMSCF/D ***
08/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2006 *** 78,290 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 09.02.24 = £0.67
Gas Price Per Therm 09.02.23 = £1.37
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 50.91 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 78,290
Month To Date (Therms) = 641,969
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.0841
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 57.9478
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 81,599
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,327,137
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7037
F/C Hedge 1 = £674,975
F/C Market Revenue = £645,723
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,320,698
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,300,887
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,366,360 £1,320,698 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,447,115 £4,299,990 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,366,360 £1,320,698 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,430 £1,300,744 Forecast
May-24 2,540,377 £1,245,064 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,430 £1,204,901 Forecast
H1 2024 14,904,352 £8,050,699 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.37mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,948
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,801,187
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £13,929,606
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.52
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
07/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3500 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.2777 ***
07/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,364,444.0000 *** 7.2784 MMSCF/D ***
07/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2061 *** 80,678 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 08.02.24 = £0.69
Gas Price Per Therm 08.02.23 = £1.37
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 50.11 % *** -60.65% on 22.02.2024 & -76.31% on 11.12.2023 ***
Daily Output (Therms) = 80,678
Month To Date (Therms) = 563,679
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.2784
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 50.8637
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 81,686
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,335,242
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7077
F/C Hedge 1 = £674,975
F/C Market Revenue = £651,690
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,326,665
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,306,765
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,368,885 £1,326,665 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,449,640 £4,305,957 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,368,885 £1,326,665 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,430 £1,300,744 Forecast
May-24 2,540,377 £1,245,064 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,430 £1,204,901 Forecast
H1 2024 14,906,877 £8,056,666 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.38mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,948
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,799,199
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £13,935,601
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.52
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
Combine that with the catastrophic Rate of Decline regarding the plan to actual in take up of EV's across Europe the Green Environmentalists Bubble Has Burst,
The Eco warriors have even lost their main financier,
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/starmer-to-announce-scaling-back-of-28bn-green-investment-plan/ar-BB1hW3Hu?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=26c8ca0517f14f00b7e6e48098f0967e&ei=8
Https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/world-s-largest-offshore-wind-developer-cuts-back-production-targets-as-costs-mount/ar-BB1hWBqV?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=41127ba96b2d4734ee9152311fc20dae&ei=17
The Pushback to Wind Power Has Commenced Amidst Rising Costs & Low Price Per Gigi Watt Hour being Realised,
Oil & Gas Is Here To Stay,
Regards,
Https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/orsted-halts-dividends-as-spirallng-losses-cast-ominous-shadow-over-major-projects/ar-BB1hUkjL?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=749a9deb55884efc9385fb2f648d5c78&ei=47
Has the Renewables Bubble Burst???
Regards,
06/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.4700 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
06/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,366,667.0000 *** 7.2819 MMSCF/D ***
06/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2062 *** 80,754 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 07.02.24 = £0.70
Gas Price Per Therm 07.02.23 = £1.47
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 52.08 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 80,754
Month To Date (Therms) = 483,001
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.2819
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 43.5854
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 81,713
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,334,505
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7109
F/C Hedge 1 = £674,975
F/C Market Revenue = £651,147
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,326,122
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,306,230
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,369,675 £1,326,122 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,450,430 £4,305,414 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,369,675 £1,326,122 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,430 £1,300,744 Forecast
May-24 2,540,377 £1,245,064 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,430 £1,204,901 Forecast
H1 2024 14,907,667 £8,056,123 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.38mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,948
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,797,583
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £13,940,471
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.52
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
05/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3300
05/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,322,029.0000
05/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2026
Gas Price Per Therm 06.02.24 = £0.70
Gas Price Per Therm 06.02.23 = £1.45
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 51.5 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 79,231
Month To Date (Therms) = 402,247
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.1548
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 36.3035
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 81,740
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,333,033
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7121
F/C Hedge 1 = £674,975
F/C Market Revenue = £650,063
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,325,038
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,305,162
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,370,447 £1,325,038 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,451,202 £4,304,330 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,370,447 £1,325,038 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,430 £1,300,744 Forecast
May-24 2,540,377 £1,245,064 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,430 £1,204,901 Forecast
H1 2024 14,908,439 £8,055,039 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.38mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,948
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,796,986
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £13,942,274
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.52
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
04/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2800 ***AVG CAL VALUE ***
04/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,328,889.0000 *** 7.1759 MMSCF/D ***
04/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2032 *** 79,465 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 05.02.24 = £0.70
Gas Price Per Therm 05.02.23 = £1.51
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 53.49 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 79,465
Month To Date (Therms) = 323,016
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.1759
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 29.1487
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 81,811
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,341,867
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7136
F/C Hedge 1 = £674,975
F/C Market Revenue = £656,566
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,331,541
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,311,568
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,372,526 £1,331,541 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,453,281 £4,310,833 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,372,526 £1,331,541 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,430 £1,300,744 Forecast
May-24 2,540,377 £1,245,064 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,430 £1,204,901 Forecast
H1 2024 14,910,518 £8,061,542 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.39mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,948
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,796,248
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £13,944,496
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.52
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
OP have a read of this link:
https://www.inchcalculator.com/convert/kilowatt-hour-to-therm/
03/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,331,111.0000
Kilowatt-Hours to Therms Converter
Enter the energy in kilowatt-hours below to get the value converted to therms.
Kilowatt-Hour Value:
2331111
SWAP UNITS
Results in Therms:
2,331,111 kWh = 79,540.808945 therms
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
Natural Gas UK GBP (GBp/thm) 70.0800
Daily Revenue = Therms * Price Per Therm
For my reporting purposes I use the price per day at 12.00 and enter it into a pivot table which gives me the monthly average price per day for each calendar month and for the monthly figures I multiply the monthly average daily price multiplied by the monthly therms,
Regards,
Missing Metrics 02.02.2024:
02/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3500 ***Avg Cal Value 41.24 ***
02/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,396,667.0000 *** 7.3772 MMSCF/D ***
02/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2089 *** 81,778 THERMS ***
03/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2900 *** AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
03/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,331,111.0000 *** 7.1759 MMSCF/D ***
03/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2032 *** 79,541 THERMS ***
Regards,
03/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2900 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
03/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,331,111.0000 *** 7.1759 MMSCF/D ***
03/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2032 *** 79,541 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 04.02.24 = £0.72
Gas Price Per Therm 04.02.23 = £1.51
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 52.2 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 79,541
Month To Date (Therms) = 243,551
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.1759
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 21.9728
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 81,880
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,354,327
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7170
F/C Hedge 1 = £674,975
F/C Market Revenue = £665,739
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,340,714
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,320,604
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,374,527 £1,340,714 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,455,282 £4,320,007 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,374,527 £1,340,714 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,430 £1,300,744 Forecast
May-24 2,540,377 £1,245,064 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,430 £1,204,901 Forecast
H1 2024 14,912,519 £8,070,715 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.39mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,948
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,794,556
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £13,949,598
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.52
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
01/02/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2200 *** AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
01/02/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,410,000.0000 *** 7.4196 MMSCF/D ***
01/02/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2101 *** 82,233 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 02.02.24 = £0.71
Gas Price Per Therm 02.02.23 = £1.47
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 51.79 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 82,233
Month To Date (Therms) = 82,233
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.4196
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 7.4196
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 81,948
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,384,746
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7145
F/C Hedge 1 = £674,975
F/C Market Revenue = £688,133
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,363,108
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,342,661
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,376,482 £1,363,108 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,457,237 £4,342,400 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,376,482 £1,363,108 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,513,827 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,430 £1,300,744 Forecast
May-24 2,540,377 £1,245,064 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,430 £1,204,901 Forecast
H1 2024 14,914,474 £8,093,109 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.4mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,948
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,795,779
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £13,945,911
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.52
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
31/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3000 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24***
31/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,350,000.0000 *** 7.2430 MMSCF/D ***
31/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2051 *** 80,185 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 01.02.24 = £0.72
Gas Price Per Therm 01.02.23 = £1.49
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 51.74 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 80,185
Month To Date (Therms) = 2,540,377
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.2430
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 229.4147
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 77,639
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,540,377
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7512
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £729,087
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,450,612
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,428,853
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,376,482 £1,601,457 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,711,902 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,457,237 £4,778,825 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,376,482 £1,601,457 Forecast
Mar-24 2,540,377 £1,711,902 Forecast
Apr-24 2,458,430 £1,492,430 Forecast
May-24 2,540,377 £1,542,177 Forecast
Jun-24 2,458,430 £1,492,430 Forecast
H1 2024 14,914,474 £9,305,861 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.4mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,948
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,606,571
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £15,818,403
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.54
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
Mirasol:
What were the forecast expected winter gas prices at the start of Q3 2023 and what have they realised,
What was the expected output from the three well when the anticipated output metrics were released in the Q2 2023 RNS,
I also allowed for the caveat of Responsible Debt Repayment and i believe the Board could have been far more aggressive in the debt repayment process, there could have been greater cost management, and salary costs of Executive & Non-Executive directors better managed,,
there are many variables which do into a SP forecast and I always state please if anyone believes my forecasts and methodology are questionable please challenge my workings with a series of equation based hypothesis which support your logic and question mine,
The biggest issue other than the loan renegotiation is the price per Therm and in the months to come the volatility of the gas Price resulting from the Russia invasion into Ukraine shall be erased and more sustainable forecasts and accurate forecasts produced,
Also the business is still paying for the very Cavalier management and business decision making in the days prior to Richard Herbert, in truth the SP has bottomed and in the months to come those who do believe in the business shall no doubt see the SP,
Remember these Key dates:
Q4 2024 /Q1 2025 a new drilling schedule to be announced with learnings from the 2023 debacle,
End of Q2 2025 the existing Hedged Prices shall have been worked off,
Q3 macroeconomically it is anticipated the BOE shall start cutting the Bank Base Rate increases which also assist favourable,
Though at the current SP there is plenty of scope to average down ones holding Prices,
Regards,
30/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.1900 *** AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
30/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,397,778.0000 *** 7.3914 MMSCF/D ***
30/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2093 *** 81,816 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 31.01.24 = £0.72
Gas Price Per Therm 31.01.23 = £1.49
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 51.57 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 81,816
Month To Date (Therms) = 2,460,192
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.3914
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 222.1717
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 77,611
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,542,198
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7512
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £745,308
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,466,833
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,444,831
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,542,198 £1,466,833 Forecast
Feb-24 2,378,186 £1,603,161 Forecast
Mar-24 2,542,198 £1,713,723 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,462,583 £4,783,717 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,542,198 £1,466,833 Forecast
Feb-24 2,378,186 £1,603,161 Forecast
Mar-24 2,542,198 £1,713,723 Forecast
Apr-24 2,460,192 £1,494,192 Forecast
May-24 2,542,198 £1,543,998 Forecast
Jun-24 2,460,192 £1,494,192 Forecast
H1 2024 14,925,165 £9,316,100 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.41mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 82,006
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,596,060
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £15,852,280
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.54
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
29/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2900 *** AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
29/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,234,444.0000 *** 6.8793 MMSCF/D ***
29/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1948 *** 76,242 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 30.01.24 = £0.70
Gas Price Per Therm 30.01.23 = £1.47
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 52.04 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 76,242
Month To Date (Therms) = 2,378,376
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 6.8793
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 214.7803
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 77,564
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,542,402
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7522
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £746,517
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,468,042
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,446,021
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,542,402 £1,468,042 Forecast
Feb-24 2,378,376 £1,603,351 Forecast
Mar-24 2,542,402 £1,713,927 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,463,181 £4,785,320 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,542,402 £1,468,042 Forecast
Feb-24 2,378,376 £1,603,351 Forecast
Mar-24 2,542,402 £1,713,927 Forecast
Apr-24 2,460,389 £1,494,389 Forecast
May-24 2,542,402 £1,544,202 Forecast
Jun-24 2,460,389 £1,494,389 Forecast
H1 2024 14,926,363 £9,318,302 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.41mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 82,013
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,594,314
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £15,857,788
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.54
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
28/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2800 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24 ***
28/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,422,222.0000 *** 7.4620 MMSCF/D ***
28/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2113 *** 82,650 THERMS ***
Gas Price Per Therm 29.01.24 = £0.70
Gas Price Per Therm 29.01.23 = £1.43
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 50.72 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 82,650
Month To Date (Therms) = 2,302,134
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.4620
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 207.9010
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 77,579
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,548,791
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7539
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £753,032
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,474,557
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,452,438
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,548,791 £1,474,557 Forecast
Feb-24 2,384,353 £1,609,328 Forecast
Mar-24 2,548,791 £1,720,316 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,481,936 £4,804,201 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,548,791 £1,474,557 Forecast
Feb-24 2,384,353 £1,609,328 Forecast
Mar-24 2,548,791 £1,720,316 Forecast
Apr-24 2,466,572 £1,500,572 Forecast
May-24 2,548,791 £1,550,591 Forecast
Jun-24 2,466,572 £1,500,572 Forecast
H1 2024 14,963,872 £9,355,937 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.43mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 82,219
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,556,514
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £15,979,424
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.55
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
25/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2900 ***Avg Cal Val 41.24 ***
25/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,417,778.0000 *** 7.4408 MMSCF/D ***
25/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2107 *** 82,498 Therms ***
GAS Price Per Therm 26.01.24 = £0.6690
GAS Price Per Therm 26.01.23 = £1.4575
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 54.1 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 82,498
Month To Date (Therms) = 2,062,185
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.4408
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 186.2248
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 77,495
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,557,109
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7611
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £766,472
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,487,997
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,465,677
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,557,109 £1,487,997 Forecast
Feb-24 2,392,134 £1,617,109 Forecast
Mar-24 2,557,109 £1,728,634 Forecast
2024 Q1 7,506,352 £4,833,740 Forecast
H1 2024 Therms & Revenue
Jan-24 2,557,109 £1,487,997 Forecast
Feb-24 2,392,134 £1,617,109 Forecast
Mar-24 2,557,109 £1,728,634 Forecast
Apr-24 2,474,622 £1,508,622 Forecast
May-24 2,557,109 £1,558,909 Forecast
Jun-24 2,474,622 £1,508,622 Forecast
H1 2024 15,012,705 £9,409,893 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.45mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 82,487
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,504,629
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £16,145,836
12 month F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.56
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,