Member Info for Simon_Said

Any talk of falling price, even after ex div, has to take into account the lowering oil price. This also exaggerates the effect of people buying just before and selling immediately after div - they're just here to pick that up and run, they don't want to hold oil stocks. You can try to trade that pattern, but I just consider it so much noise. Fundamentally strong and well-run company, and I'm never selling the shares anyway so the price is pretty irrelevant, I just need Shell to continue being well managed with full dividend cover. Everyone's playing a different strategy, but for me this and Lloyds are an income backbone while the rest of my portfolio shoots for growth.

Well there it goes, as expected by pretty-well everybody - lots of selling at £2. We'll keep bouncing off this for a bit, but there have been many buys in recent weeks and those people have paid 185p+, so won't be selling at £2. We'll hover around 190-200p daily for a while now, until we get the H1 results, I think. I just hope the dreaded day traders don't try to play this share, it has been a very pleasant place so far. If we suddenly see lots of posters who have never posted here before, posting inane criticism that doesn't reference the company but merely fluctuations in the SP... well, that will be a sad day.

Well the last big investment the company made was scaling up capacity. We are now clear up to $2bn EUS with no additional capex. Beyond that, from the investor presentation: 'Taking volume from $2Bn to $3Bn EUS expected to cost less than $30,000 (<0.03% of $1Bn)' 2016 EUS was $0.2Bn. So that aspect of costs is sorted. As for margin, insofar as a big client may squeeze the per-transaction margin (0.2% in the example they gave, but varies by contract), it's a risk but since there's no real competition (very hard to build a company like this), and Bango has a diversified customer base, they should have a pretty strong hand in any negotiation. If Amazon want to go global they'll certainly want a deep discount, but given the volume they'll bring in, the economics will make that more workable. Just my 2 cents!

We are in the main article on the Investor's Chronicle website and magazine ('Brexit-proof shares'), so there is plenty of new money flowing in, but we're still below even the most conservative price target and plenty to look forward to. Welcome to new holders, you've found one of the few stable, consistently growing companies on AIM.

Strikeforce, I really don't see what relevant TA/chartism has when looking at a special situation like Bowleven. Companies in wind down cannot be judged in that way. I mean, I think TA is bunk for everything, but at the very least, totally inappropriate here.

Ha - I came on here to ask exactly that! Anybody care to speculate on the implications of this?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4083805-royal-dutch-shell-bp?auth_param=1e5usf:1cl1i2e:f77214819254bb805ac57ab0c277b71f&dr=1#alt1

Considering the dividend potential here (no debt, low costs, rising EUS, new routes etc etc), I am no longer keeping a target price in mind, same as my other div stocks. Will have to top slice eventually as profit is getting enormous but will be keeping a significant holding here for the long haul.

I think fears of this are overblown, as has been pointed out before, it seriously impacts the economics for the shalies who are dragging the market down with oversupply. Wells are not fracked infinitely and in order to keep growing and building new wells, those companies need financing, and banks/investors will lose appetite for this when the price gets too low. In any case, of all the majors, Shell is the best situated to weather low oil for the short time it may be with us: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4079555-buy-safe-market-beating-6_9-percent-dividend-yield For what it's worth, I have a shale tech play in my portfolio too (HNR), for diversification and because oil prices coming up will benefit both. It's just a case of when. But RDSB is fantastically run these days and the market has been punishing it less than other majors as this becomes increasingly apparent.

Not sure if this was posted before, but found a nice article on DCB in Japan from last year (had to use Google cache for some reason): http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:6MxP2lj6cloJ:www.paymentscardsandmobile.com/japan-ahead-europe-direct-carrier-billing-penetration/+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk Nothing new here, but I always like reading about things that benefit my shares!

Honestly I feel daft trying to work out figures since so much is unknown here. As SB says, there is a lot behind the scenes - we had no idea about Amazon Japan, which totally transformed the (already positive) economics of the company. It's certainly interesting that fairly conservative maths still puts us at multiples of today's share price without any forward P/E. It's possible that the company's obscurity will limit the premium investors will place on it, but press coverage helps, and as I have said many times, a future FTSE main market listing would really help change gears here. Would be interested to read a counter-argument to that, as I'm unfamiliar with crossing-over in general.

Thanks Noir, great analysis. As you allude to, all this operational progress doesn't even take into account 200+ new routes/deals coming up. Depending on H1 results I'm thinking the target price here will need to go up, I'm not jumping off early despite the tempting profit showing on my account.

Low volume today but profit taking sells, walking us down. Nothing has changed fundamentally, so no reason for concern. Any explosive growth stock will have days like this. Would buy if I could.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3273516-shells-cash-flow-generation-become-consistent-rbc-says

Some inevitable profit taking today, as you'd expect after a rise like that. I thought about it, but I am too enamoured with this company and the way it's run to sell out just yet. There is so much in the pipeline here, I'm now targeting 230p to sell in a year or so.

Well there's sterling weakness for you. Ah well.

Tipped again in today's IC column, very positive.

Your humility is refreshing and impressive, Wagas! We all miss them from time to time, I've had some corkers... GL mate.

Whilst I agree with your conclusion that the price target will have to go up, this has nothing to do with chartist ideas of 'testing' a price - the 2 spikes you reference were due to press coverage of the Amazon Japan deal (first from Investor's Chronicle, second from Daily Mail).

Looking good this morning! It worked!