RE: BGO2 Jan 2020 14:20
I read that long comment a few times through and it really seems quite bizarre. It's a mashup of some accountancy terms and an apparent attempt at balance, with strange doomsaying comments interspersed. I think it's a mashup of copy pastes from a few different places.
The references to 'slashed forecasts' surely can't be referring to the trading update, as it contains no such thing, referring solely to last year (and indeed is not final results). Where are these numbers coming from?
The comment about the Strategy Day being a 'sign of an impending placing' shows that whomever actually wrote it doesn't know Bango. They have a strategy day every year, it's not an extraordinary event or meeting, it's an annual staple. That lack of basic company knowledge
suggests to me that the person writing this is substituting accountancy terms (used in a rather confused fashion) for actual company knowledge. Which is fine and fair if you lack knowledge and are earnestly seeking information, but some scroat has peppered that analysis with sore-thumb-obvious tabloidal doomsaying.
The market is reacting bizarrely to an update that most companies of similar kinds would kill for. The business is in good health and sustaining exponential growth. The cost base is clearly the key to unlocking profits now, as the pieces are all in place, but more revenue needs to traverse the gauntlet to the bottom line. I think we'll learn more at Strategy Day and in the final 2019 results release as to what so much of the revenue has been spent on, but knowing Bango they tend to plough revenue extremely heavily into factors that enhance future growth (the Silicon Valley style of aggressive reinvestment) rather than declare heavy bottom line profits.
As an investor I hope that they don't take this strategy too far, as the weakening of the share price that causes is not only problematic for investors, but also reduces the company's ability to take on debt if they required it. That said, looking at the information in this update, there is no shortage of revenue and plenty is making it past fixed costs to enhancements, so they are clearly not looking to borrow or place any time soon. So I suppose they don't need big profit numbers yet. This is the same reason why Facebook, Amazon et al didn't declare much in the way of profit for many years.