Member Info for Simon_Said

Yes, it will be a leading indicator on what Reabold perceive the value of West Newton to be with the data they have acquired.

Buying has been NT for a while now.

'Overhang' is more relevant to private placings as PI's tend to flip for quick profit. This is an institutional book build, quite different MO. The sort of placees that will be involved are not the sort of bodies to flip shares rapidly. They're playing a very different game. Cannot stress enough how different this is to a regular fundraise - this is a massive amount of money.

The amount they are seeking to raise is so large relative to their market cap that we must think differently about this entire operation. It implies a huge uplift in the value being placed on shares of Rathlin, somewhere around 5x. This has the same implication, then, for the value of the equity Reabold already hold in Rathlin, which has implications for theoretical book value. It also suggests that the data they gathered downhole is extremely, monumentally positive. Every comment from UJO, Reabold and supposed leakers since has confirmed this.

Stephen and Sachin are naturally quite conservative. They come from M&G and initially intended for Reabold to be a fund, not an AIM traded company. They would not be making a move as ballsy as this without substantial data to back it up.

Now regarding the placing price. They have stated time and time again they won't place lower than a previous raise and I believe that will be upheld. What makes that easier here is that the number of shares on offer gives a potential placee access to a larger slice of Reabold than they would be able to acquire on the open market. This is because obtaining that many shares would send the share price rocketing and reduce the number they would be able to buy for their given sum. Thus, the placing allows them to acquire a larger stake than would otherwise be available, and they will have to pay a premium for this. This placing will be at a premium regardless of what the flappers do to the share price by panic-selling now.

The question that follows from that is: What is in this data that gives Reabold's board the confidence to go to the city for this kind of sum, and for logical reasons at a premium price?

As we've been slowly learning from every word said about West Newton, it is clear that whatever is in that downhole data is absolutely monumental. I believe we are witnessing something quite unprecedented on AIM.

What's the point of a comment like that?

Really wasn't worth reposting that from UJO to here. It's a paragraph full of PI cliches and guesswork.

Wow. That is a vast amount of speculative guess work there.

Angela, I agree an IPO seems a strong possibility. I seem to recall this being mentioned as a possibility before.

Perhaps we'll be chatting on the RATH board soon!

Unless they are merely selling their stake and Rathlin as an entity becomes a discreet entity. Could even IPO. Many ways this kind of corporate activity can unfold.

Yes sorry - the 'wholly-owned' bit is out of date, lol.

Perhaps they're ready to part with their remaining stake.

The key is that Rathlin is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Connaught, a large Canadian O&G firm (hence Connaught's willingness to write-down the large debt Rathlin 'owed' them to secure Reabold's investment last year). Connaught are large enough to be at the same table as the majors. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they were exploring a sale.

Whilst the detail can be cloudy, Dan rarely if ever posts things that are completely unfounded. I take his Tweet as a pretty reliable indicator that at least some conversations are being had. Certainly seems plausible to me that a major would take Rathlin out. Connaught would sell.

'Ramping gangs'

The fantasy world some of you live in, lol.

It really doesn't require some silly conspiracy theory to explain why there are less people positively tweeting about a share whose price is sliding.

Conspiracy thinking is fekking over the world in many ways.

No, OSG, not that! This https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/420_(cannabis_culture)

Yes, net benefit to have him gone. As a single PI holder, his holding was a perpetual threat to the share price as it was clear his exit would create a liquidity shock. Good to have him gone now in the early stages. He's a born rainbow chaser so it's not surprising to see him now pumping elsewhere.

His big pile of shares being bought up by lots of individuals should create a more diversified share ownership base and have some effect on reducing volatility.

Also - gosh what a thoroughly depressing individual to read. I need a shower.

Well I held my nose and went and had a look (god help me). He was tweeting positively on UJO as recently as last week, and those Tweets are not removed. However he has indeed removed references from his Twitter 'About' text section.

Fairview I agree with you and am not chasing additional information - I believe it is extremely important on AIM, where many shares are relatively illiquid, that during times of dramatic price movements, companies make statements to market to reassure investors that they are not witnessing anything untoward. This is an area in which I believe AIM is under-regulated. I believe a certain level of price fluctuation ought to require companies to make a statement. The market is meant to protect investors where possible, and that kind of action has an important calming affect. Some companies do it electively.

I don't hold here, but just wanted to say it has been making me chuckle this week how this CBD related stock keeps hitting a bid price of '420'.

(If you don't get it... google it!)

I agree and have contacted the company to strongly press them to make a statement to market. The market cap has dropped by almost a quarter in 2 sessions. Please add your voices to this call for a statement to market. https://unionjackoil.com/contact-us-2/