Member Info for Simon_Said

Denia you must realise that is a disingenuous reading of my post. Once again, as I said in my last post, I am not implying they will definitely never raise again. I am saying that raisings of this size are incredibly rare, in all of AIM. You are reducing your reading of company strategy down to extremely specific and limited notions that bely the entire intention of the strategy.

Until they actually monetise assets, I don't see how the business model can be judged. They have acquired a stunning portfolio, unique on AIM in its breadth, diversification, chunky ownership shares with extremely limited cost liabilities, top-class institutional shareholder base (very small % of PIs now), and all this with zero debt and a recently-arranged facility to return cash to shareholders.

We are just now approaching the monetisation phase, hence the share capital reduction. Given you disbelieve the business model, it makes sense for you to sell now, but I won't be selling just before the reaping of everything that has been sewn.

Denia I'm not arguing that they'll never raise again. I'm arguing it won't be at this scale, it's incredibly unlikely. And also, by the time they get to those projects, they'll have monetised other parts of the portfolio, who knows where the share price will be.

This is all rather abstract. Success at monetising West Newton and Parta will make the company and should reward shareholders (by dividend/buyback, share price appreciation, any mix of those). Dreaming about what they may or may not raise in the future at undetermined values really isn't very relevant.

This outsized raise has funded the 2 largest projects, WN and Parta, to their major target stages for monetisation. The implication you've made, Denia, that somehow this is the first of many £20m raises, is absurd. They are just on the cusp of being able to monetise these major projects, and thanks to this placing they will now be taking the lion's share of profits from whatever method of monetisation is used for each project. They recently went to court to ensure they were cleared to make capital returns to shareholders by way of buybacks and dividends, and indeed made references to this in recent RNS's around the placing. Connect the dots, my friend.

The city is not an endless cash machine, and Reabold already thrown its weight to the max by raising what it has. In fact its an incredible achievement to have raised this much money from the city in the current investment environment. It's remarkable. There is absolutely nothing to suggest another raise of this size is likely or even possible, therefore your implication that due to this PIs will be diluted out of any profits is moot.

Do not forget the capital reduction and discussions of dividends and/or buybacks. They did that directly before this placing. It really is incredibly important to understand how and why these events are linked.

'Dangerous' and 'mischievous'? I merely made an assertion that didn't come off. This is just a chat board. I remain surprised that this is a discounted placing - you live and learn. I am not running some stupid blog claiming to be an expert.

Lord knows there were enough people saying 'run for the hills'.

I don't have any beef with the rest of your post, but please not this typical chat board accusations.

Oh, you were referencing last week!

Yep they have said they won't raise below a previous but in the end they had to. I am surprised to see a discount here given the volumes, quite true.

Your smug 'gotcha' is all well and good but you guessed too low too. Because... we're all just guessing. Because we're not party to this agreement.

Your smugness suits your username - why would anybody with an ounce of humility or self-awareness choose something so self-affirming and smug.

Congratulations on your endless riches because the placing was below the previous one.

Why? What about my post was wrong exactly?

This is a tenth of a penny off. Everything I wrote about them making this deal stands.

You're a wally.

What is happening now is probably very little because Rathlin didn't have the cash. This is what Reabold specialise in. They are long-time city folk and they have contacts and access. I expect a massive acceleration in operations if this deal concludes as intended.

isdeer over on the UJO board summarised it well:

'rbd has access to cash, rathlin dont, connaught had already covered their 33m debt but they need cash to continue drilling and paying their way, im suggesting rathlin were skint and this why we have this halt in progess and news, they need cash quickly to progress WN.'

Reabold are city types - they can access funding that Rathlin, a Canadian operator, cannot. The time on license is finite, and the project needs to get moving. That urgency have allowed Reabold the possibility of an absolute scoop, if they manage to acquire 74.99% of Rathlin as hoped.

100% agree, isdeer!

Christ, catching up on this board was a trip. Astonishing how many people are more interested and concerned by a poorly-dressed private investor selling out than the fact that a BoD with the pedigree and class of Reabold are seeking to raise over TWENTY MILLION SODDING QUID to spunk on this project. Reminder: Reabold are not outside investors here - they're not operators, but they have a director on the Rathlin board and own shares in both Rathlin and their parent company Connaught (see 8th Feb RNS). They are first-party to data here.

Taking a PI selling out as a more important trade signal than one of the larger raises for a single project in AIM history (as far as I'm aware) is really backward thinking.

I own shares in UJO and RBD, but the quality of conversation over there tends to be rather better. Lunacy in here, and people are actually selling at this price! Lunacy.

... it seems.

The confidence to seek this kind of sum is not sheer chutzpah. This is calculated, and Reabold are first-party to every development from West Newton. The tumbling share price at UJO is utterly out of step with the incredible indication the Reabold deal provides. And the Reabold share price's more modest but still notable dip is similarly myopic, though I believe will be short-lived.

I think the comments in here and on Twitter being ALL OVER THE PLACE are indicative of the unprecedented nature of this raise. The problem with these discussions over placing price and volume ranges is you quickly become immune to the nitty gritty of what is being proposed here.

You have 2 former fund managers, from the equity/finance side of the industry, running a company that they originally intended to be a fund (but setting up during the oil price crash made this unworkable), now going to a very large corporate broker to raise over £20m. That is a vast, vast sum. Not just relative to the market cap (though it is). Companies of any size would consider £20m a sizeable move, that is well beyond anything you'd normally see on AIM.

Until you realise just how massive this is, and what that means when the people going out and seeking it are known for being figure-focused and relatively conservative, you can't really grasp the magnitude of what we're seeing here. As I said, to my knowledge it is unprecedented (happy to be corrected!).

The final figure is not as vital as some here are painting it. Whether they raise at 1p or 1.1p is not the end of the world. Yes, they prided themselves on never raising below a previous raise figure, which would be 1.1p. But the market has been strange lately and the placing was leaked (the fault of a placee breaking their NDA, not Reabold). The important thing isn't quibbling over a tenth of a penny - it's getting that vast, vast sum of investment.

Anyone who has spent time with Stephen and/or Sachin, or knows about them indirectly through talking with Camarco, knows that they think carefully about questions of dilution. The share register is still majority institutional, and very prestigious institutions they are too. If you think YOU'RE ****ed about dilution, imagine what those big banks and investment houses are saying to them on the private line. They do not take this lightly.

They are not being forced into this placing. They are not cash-strapped and the West Newton project would still ultimately have found funding had Reabold not swooped in to take out most of Rathlin (it's too good of a project, SOMEONE would have gotten in on it). But Reabold's CEOs are opportunists, we've all seen their style time and time again. Thus they are attempting to take advantage of a cash-strapped Rathlin who are not receiving the support they need from parent company Connaught to advance the project.

Here is the big part people are missing. Reabold actually own a chunk of shares in Connaught (see 8th Feb '19 RNS), and have representation on Rathlin's board. These companies are all very closely linked. The emergence of this MASSIVE placing deal is not sudden. It will be the result of a lot of conversations, likely over a long time.

When people say UJO have a more direct stake in West Newton than Reabold, they often don't understand the nature of Reabold's relationship with Connaught and Rathlin. All is not what

It's a book build, he hasn't 'taken shares in the placing' because nobody has, the book isn't even open yet. Anyone can phone Stifel and ask, lol. Ultimately the book will be filled and the BoD will determine which parties get the shares. It is discretionary.

Miker, what are you referring to? The presentation that leaked this morning?

To be clear - 'VAST' was for emphasis, not a reference to that stock! Lol

This is a VAST capital raising. Stephen and Sachin are very data-driven, so if they believe this is worth going on so hard on, I think we can safely infer that the data they're getting as they compose it all for the CPR is very, very good. Analysis of the downhole data is ongoing and they are not obliged to RNS yet, but this is definitely a signal that they are very happy with what they're seeing.

They can't buy shares themselves as the Board will be in a closed period (holding too much information to be allowed to trade), but they can increase the value of their existing shares and all of ours by engaging in value-enhancing deals.

A vast amount of capital to raise. They would only do that if they were VERY confident in the data.

This is a fantastic signal for all West Newton players.

To add, Reabold have historically been very picky about who they will sell placing shares too. Those of us who've met the BoD know that they're very conscious of 'flipping' and ensuring subscription shares go to institutions who will hold them for meaningful periods of time.

This is an institutional book build via a broker who, as I understand it, specialises in this. Expect to see some new, sticky holders entering. These sums are of course all well over the TR1 thresholds so we'll know a lot very soon.

Changing the topic heading as that is flat-out wrong. This is an institutional book build. 'Overhang' is not a relevant term here.

'But surely, if such a 'prospectus' exists, don't other existing shareholders have a right to see such 'inside information' as well?'

That isn't how placings work. The placees have to sign an NDA to see the prospectus, which contains insider information, and are not allowed to trade until that information becomes public. The board of directors are subject to the same restrictions.