Member Info for Simms45

I am expecting hkex to agree listing now these results are out as i am sure the reason for the early release was because of hkex request. Certainly hope so anyway as this is madness to have taken 18 months. Management have a lot to answer for and these drop in revenue and contracts cant have been helped by this suspension as it would make companies wary what is going on. Really quite appalling but maybe some end is in sight.

I would say the market cap of Condor at sub £24m is barely valuing even the kit we have already bought and onsite and the BFS at around £10m. While obviously financing has got harder there is still a hell of a lot of cash in the market and a gold mine is probably a safer place to park than in a bank being eaten away by inflation. The capex is tiny in the grand scheme of mines so this can be funded by all manner of entities and private clients, including out biggest billionaire investor Jim Mellon who just a got a hefty cash injection from one of his companies. What the BFS is supposed to afford us is the lowest possible interest rates and maximum breadth of institutions. Personally i think the BFS was partly done to sell to Rio Tinto or some other major but we everything in place. MC is a financier so the one thing he has always done very well at is raising money and do not see any issues on the financing. What we want however is mimimum capex and dilution and MC has repeated this many times with all debt paid back in 12 months to be debt free.

To a large extent Kefi needs to dual list as they have burnt all bridges in the UK and investors are wary, hence the £20m market cap when the company has invested close to £80m last 12 years and with some work we will get this all back as out 70% stake in project. Its 6 weeks really to find out so if our sweat equity comes together we should be worth at least our £80m of equity in the project and that really excludes anything of Saudi. Yes it makes obvious sense to split Saudi from Ethiopian asset and list. I would then probably focus on Saudi and sell Kefi to a major for a decent number and return the cash to investors. Saudi is where the big money is in medium term. TK is a massive win if it all comes together over next 6 weeks. Plenty should be known well before this.

While not exactly a stellar half the future is a little brighter but work to do

https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0829/2022082901726.pdf

“In the next few years, the application and development of new energy production technology will enter a new stage. The Company will seize the historic opportunity to actively develop new technologies and new business relying on its leading position in the industry. The Company maintains technical advantages in the fuel ethanol market and will expand the current revenue structure by increasing more technical service income from the upgrades in generations 1.5 and 2 for cellulose ethanol and other chemicals. In the future, the Company will further strengthen the construction of marketing team, continuously improve the depth and breadth of sales network, maintain good relationship with existing customers, and actively expand new customer portfolio and explore investment opportunities in related industries. It can create a strong marketing team and market channels with market influence. Based on past experience, the Company’s performance in the second half of the year will be much better than that in the first half, so it is expected to reduce losses in the second half of the year.”

i agree with you on a personal point of view but companies globally, especially manufacturers, must be all seriously considering energy security for their business operations and how can then plan when energy prices are rising 400% . that will shut a lot of companies. companies want to know their costs and those that have lower energy costs will have a massive competitive advantage in the future. come on DP get some projects live and get sign agreements in place for deeside and southport etc. time to strike is now to lock in the high prices. surely going to investors with 400% increase in revenue from offtake energy agreements (assuming they are at least 5 years) should make the return for investors a game changer. i do not see why Eqtec are not capitalising on this and that the shareprice is not factoring this in. you n guarantee that if prices of energy were falling Eqtec shareprice would fall. capex costs will be higher but not considerably.

Its a perfect storm for Eqtec energy agreements. In less than 12 months wholesale energy has risen 400%. What does that say about all our energy projects? It means revenue from future projects should be considerably higher than before and must make these projects masively attractive, especially where the inputs being used in our gassification we are paid to process. I am miffed why the market is not considering that out revenue from projects could be up to 400% more than it was 12 months, subject to agreement on energy offtakes. Appreciate we are not quite their but the market needs to factor in these changes.

The only slight positive is they still talk of delayed than cancelled contracts and ultimately Ethanol demand globally is expanding so you would think even basic marketing should bring in projects. Still no idea about Sunbird deal and any expansion and while China has had their Covid moment it has presumably ended and Ethanol is not going anywhere.

Not ideal by a long way and frustratingly does not even try to talk about future pipeline and contracts but lets see what the report says as it looks the board are only too comfortable keeping on a dour face. it maddens me that millions thrown at so called PR in India etc has achieved nothing and we probably all know why. its a small loss in reality at less than £1m so its an improvement on the final 6 months of last year

Saudi listing would be a game changer. Hawiah has direct comparables in Saudi so local market will understand the real value. Today Saudi assets are not even valued as their is still uncertainty over TK. it can make sense also to split Hawiah out but if TK gets finance Hawiah should immediately add 1-2p as it we will have the cash runway from TK so they can access debt markets as well as capital markets. only 6 weeks and all will be known. So far all is incredibly positive and market could rapidly revalue Kefi into October.

I suspect the background seller has stopped and buying pressure will take us higher as 99% are in the red so probably not many sellers at this point. We are due so much news that we we will quietly get back over 1p over next month or so. How Eqtec is worth £48 is mind boggling given the market size where Eqtec is arguably a market leader. Eqtec stopped even reporting the serious sales enquiries when it got to around £1bn and did the right thing and focus on a global partnership model so we can embed ourselves into the growth for the long-term. a possible maid profit this year is possible based on numbers and that would make Eqtec stand out against the green tech market.

If its 18 months from 1st April i presume that gives a deadline of 30th September so if results come out end of August we should have good time to return to the Hkex. i do wonder if exchanges can also extend that period in some cases but given results being released almost 1 month early this shows compliance. the point in recent RNS about dividend is a little bizarre but if those delayed contracts come through it could fix the gap from last results. only a week to find out where we stand financially and hopefully the board will provide a proper update narrative as they always skim over details of what they are up to. What is Sunbird deal, what is state of their hydrogen tech, what about innovations on 1.5 and any deal with Mitsubishi and global deals they were pursuing etc. These are key to help investors understand the long-term future and if the PRC are slowing ethanol production then what about ROW who are going for E10 and beyond and surely Ethanol demand will double over coming years as the blend goes from 5% to 10% and upwards. For me its obvious demand for Ethanol is growing hugely and is their supply capacity and infrastructure to make that happen?

Official agreement from banks on finance will propel us forward and could be very soon. It is almost now very likely as the requirements for the debt finance look to have been met, bar maybe some administrative hurdles but security report, government sign off and umbrella are all in place as well as equal terms. Once debt is confirmed this triggers investors cash into the project as per umbrella agreement. The cash is likely to come as all these investors are trying to repatriate cash out of ethiopia as currently profits in Ethiopia are not easy to bring repatriate. As i understand roughly investors will invest £1m say and this will wash through Kefi and come out as dollars into an account overtime from dividends and payments that can leave country. A lot of companies and investors will use this tax advantageous process to achieve this and why Kefi investors stand to gain a lot more than simply backing a gold mine. Gla but 2-4 weeks a lot will be known and .6 it will not be.

Biden also signed the inflation reduction act that sets the US on a fairly aggressive decarbonisation strategy that could meet or exceed the Paris accord and this might considerably benefit Eqtec in time. Certainly Eqtec tick all the boxes but the one thing for sure is Eqtec is in the right place with its global footprint and strategy at the right time so while we have some growing pains they will be insignificant over the coming years.

i think the rules of the hkex are different to london in that they only need to provide results. I do not think there is a requirement to provide such news updates through official channels. if you look at established companies in the hkex it just seems to show only results. i think the H1 results being released early speaks volumes as it is either Hkex request or the bod needs to provide an update.

If Rio Tinto or anyone else who have been looking in thr dataroom bought in that would help setup Condor closer to GGP as a major would draw in a lot of investors and could minimise dilution. i suspect part of delay with FS is backroom discussions but it seems clear that MC wants minimum dilution and to get operating asap. Certainly the current valuation is not even close to billions of gold we will be extracting in the not too distant future and with a low AISC due to ease of access to open pit. We cannot but get a decent re-rate once FS and financing is resolved as your paying $30 today for $1800 gold so onces costs come out still a massive mismatch. We should be $100 an ounce today and towards production significantly more if gold prices stay where they are or more likely rise significantly.

Quite positive that it looks that CNEL will release H1 results before relisting at end of August. If if can provide clarity on delayed projects and update on all their developments then it could ensure that insiders at CNEL will have less opportunity go benefit. My suspicion was bod were orchestrating a plan to buy back shares from pis at low values and well still be planning this but we will see end of month how the board presents the results but potentially it could show a reversal of fortunes as surely delayed contracts will have started and its development work will be bearing fruit. To me this feels we are close fo relisting but did it really need 18 months to do so and really the board appears to have not learnt the importance of transparency. Lets see how the results bear and how open they will be to share projext updates.

There is a lot of news due if even half of what canaccord report comes to fruition. Even half of the expected projects coming off will shoot Eqtec north. If they really completed all projects reported in Canaccord we would be north of 2p. All to play for but Q3 is nearly at an end and Q4 is upon us. Will DP come out with a slew of RNS in the last quarter? Lets hope so as he needs to get Eqtec share price off the floor.

Things are coming together and shares are held tightly so with a bit more buyer pressure leading up to BFS we should move back to a nominal trading range of 30-40p and then start to move further on progress.

Richard Bennett knows what is going on but i reached out to him and no response. He is also chairman of Sunbird but also no concrete information as to these contracts with CNEL and whether these are the fabled delayed contracts or not. Its a mystery as in all updates Sunbird is never mentioned? while i do not know the ins and outs of relisting CNEL have provided the absolute basic technical requirements but they fall a long way from the spirit of transparency and ensuring pis have as much information about contract signings and developments as insiders and contractors meaning others csn trade wirty a considerable advantage while pis know very little detail to make sense of the recent profit warning as 2 delayed projects are less problematic as 2 canceled contracts. I am sure the HKex are telling CNEL to release news updates to avert conflicts of interest and potential insider dealing.

I feel everything for once is running exactly to the timetable. 2 key items brings us closer to financial closer

1> security and social report are signed off and positive
2> $200m of bank finance is approved by government

The October kickoff has be re-affirmed so this means we now just have to jockey the umbrella investors during the rest of August and early September to make sure we have the finance rolling in before October. Really the last 6 months have been very co-ordinated and the team have kept up with their timetable. Plenty of concrete action on the ground and we should get our first investors over the line very shortly. While the market is in the duldrums this will rapidly change and i only wish i got in at .6 as that could not be a better timed investment if the next 6 weeks can be achieved.