Member Info for Simms45

HM and his billions becoming chairman. Can only be positive.

Frankly its held up well given everything that has happened and 18 months of pent up anger to exit together with the market collapse. As expected Cnel management have done nothing to help prepare a better return to the market. I thought it would open lower. We are down to £11m market cap and we have £25m of cumulative profits so once the rout is out of the way and management do their job and share information with investors we might turn a corner but its going to be a long wait i suspect

Maybe best forward guidance of a sort from the document

“ the Company is confident in its business outlook and believes that the decline in revenue and profit of the Group is only temporary considering the poor market environment which has an expected downturn for one to two years. The Company’s emphasis on advanced research and development of clean energy production technology provides optimistic and stable business prospects.”

While its only a rumour we might have progress and an update imminently. We will have to wait and see but if so i really hope Cnel make their life a little easier and release some news on all manner of things that might help if as investors need reassurance on the future and why cnel are not gaining traction elsewhere as they are supposed to have industry leading technology in gen 2 etc. Lets hold off the relief until we get an update.

I still sense there is someone offloading at .6 as we are anchored. Some big buys are coming in that would normally raise the ask but are being soaked up. Either way if Harry delivers later this months its a great opportunity to buy in at 25% below the last placing price of .8 so if you believe in the project never a better time to place your bets. Certainly feels very q

Need to bear in mind DP has invested around 300k of his own cash at various placings between .45 and .5 so he is considerably in the red along with the rest of the board so just like PIs he is not in any rush for a placing. The last board webinar went into their approach going forward and i am glad to say it was exactly what investors wanted to hear to conserve cash and focus on closing projects and weather the next few months before the cavalry arrives in the form of financial closures and maybe realisation of some assets. The world has changed in the last 12 months and really nobody expected it and while DP and team should have been a little more prudent with the cash that cash is well invested and will reap benefits in time. We are at a turning point and if we can convert Deeside and several other projects before the end of the year we are cashflow positive and they can hold off a further raise for sometime to come. Better times should be ahead once we get past this cash conservation period. The fact DP basically helped out MTNG to solve their own cashflow issues speaks volumes and that goes a long way in business relations to have done that, albeit to the advantage of Eqtec investors. There will be positive news this month in regards to projects so i sense big changes ahead.

I think the Crux webinar might have helped but we need new blood in the investor base as its been so quiet for so long amd we are at a turning point. Just a few months and whatever direction we take that has been discussed its going to be positive. still in bargain basement territory but so many companies are. A deluge of risk-on money is bound to flood in as US spots their opportunity to go on the acquisition and take advantage of low sterling.

Ok so nothing to do with Eqtec raising cash, effectively MNRG had cashflow issues to pay a loan and Eqtec was guarantor requiring it to transfer the shares. In return MNRG issued convertible note so Eqtec to enable it to return to 15% at some point on same terms. This enabled Eqtec to remove its guarantor status so quite good but MNRG need tp bring in some cash, that is expected apparently, to sort its own finances out.

Lets hope that £40k has done a little cleaning up of any resistance at 30p as we tested it last week but fell back but this might help us push on past this time. Might be some more upward pressure tomorrow.

Ive been here long enough to spot that after almost every placing there is a 3-4 month anchored to a price as placing shares are offloaded. Shareholders scratch their heads, come up with all manner of theories up and down and then boom the shareprice takes off. We are in the middle of the greatest tide our event as shareholders reel with massive losses and margin calls exacerbating downward trends, regardless of underlying value, some funds and investors have been desimated in the last 12 months so there is extreme caution. However we know the debt financing is secure and sitting ready to be deployed and most investors are getting involved in project as a way to repatriate profits to other parts of the world. All we need is Kefi is close all the details, that is no easy feet dealing with dozens of lawyers. I believe if Kefi pull this together we will be $350m mid cap miner in 3 years time, and i might be conservative as i sense gold is about to take off as someone looks at all the global debt and asks how on earth are countries going to repay it? printing money like its going out of fashion springs to mind and when the whole globe goes in lock step and inflation rises investors will want safety and gold is certainly one option.

Please remember that all the “ bad management and bad luck” is confirmed and wrapped up im the $80m of sweat equity that will help Kefi convert into a 70% stake in a $350m project. Shareholders will get back all their placing investment on financial close. Kefi still needs a top-up but the high risk/return profile is very interesting for a £20m market cap company. There is almost a 4x just on net assets on completion to account for the $80m. If it all gets kicked into the rough or falls apart we have Hawiah and JQ that are easily worth £50m today alone if listed separately. of course markets will react to any downside regardless of underlying fundamentals but ultimately Kefi is not a one trick pony. To many on this board they would have liked to junk TK years ago and just focus on Saudi. Personally i am glad they persevered and if this month things fall into place we will see historic peaks of 2.5p within the last few years that will still be worth less than net asset. Many here see 5-10p as a realistic 2-5 year outlook. risks are huge but the rewards could be to. last 3 weeks and counting to see where we stand. Personally i would love Harry for once to deliver before the last day of the month. that would change Everyones dispondency and re-energise the company. The peace talks, the local resettlement news, the constant updates from Harry October is on is putting Harry in a tricky place if something does not get signed. At no point has he started to backtrack so lets see how October plays out. Gla

The crux webinar really tried to lay bare just how undervalued we are touting 10x numbers being more comparable to Canadian or Australian miners in similar position. Personally MC should just crack, close financing and head to production on a 12 month ticket and let someone take a pot shot along the road. There is not going to be any takeover at a palatable price based on todays share price even though there will be a long queue of interested parties but today with the ridiculous share price there is no way any buyer will be able to sell to their shareholders paying a 300% premium. Maybe when we get back into the 60s someone might try a takeover starting with £1 but we are so far from that today. Obviously a takeover offer at 50p today would be great as it would help reduce the gap but would obviously not get the support of JM who holds the cards. The price is going to rise dramatically at some point simply because the free float is tiny at these levels and even buying a few thousand of stock moves the stock up or down by a penny. i sense that gold is about to go into ascendancy as surely everyone recognises the global debt mountain is now impossible to sustain with massively rising interest rates. Most countries interest bill just on their existing debt could be more than the income tax collected in a year the way things are going. The central bank will print money to pay the debt but create ever more inflation thus needing to increase interest rates further. its a depressing cycle. When this happens gold is going to come back into fashion as a store of wealth as cash is not going to be one of them as inflation takes hold in pay negotiations, rents, groceries. sadly energy prices will probably crash in 18 months but it will be too late.

Apparently still with lawyers according to RB last week and still shows as suspended on hkex. it just depends if technically they have satisfied conditions as they did all steps and although it was a carcrash and a total shambles while they were not exactly 100% cleared of wrongdoing there was also no proof they had so logically innocent until proven guilty. We will see as if they get delisted where can they go? Not sure their CV is going to help and holding a private stake in a Chinese company is not exactly solid. they must have plenty of pressure from investors in IPO who were properly done up like a kipper and all UK investors took months to get their shares listed. I still cannot believe CNEL enabled double river to dump their entire holding on day 1 when almost no one else could trade, except buyers. Really hkex had a part to play in the fall out and cnel have not recovered. so much potential but they just need new board members who can keep an eye on the duo who run the show.

While it makes sense to re-invest cash sometimes the beauty of dividends, when possible, is they attract yield investors and can provide a huge boost to the shareprice and put a break on falls that can help companies grossly undervalued avoid takeovers. Companies that are offering dividends have held up far better in the recent turmoil. While Kefi is 3-4 years from even considering a dividend the key to unlocking value today, apart from the obvious finance of TK, is to announce the Saudi assets will be listed separately. This would have a massive impact on the share price as based on the share price today the market has completely given up on TK ever happening, and Hawiah is not valued at all in Kefi, in fact today it is seen as a cash drain and negative valuation. However if and when TK completes Hawiah will have a proper value immediately as we know we have the finance for that project in the bag. Tk closure is a triple positive whammy. However agreeing with Artan now a plan to eventually list the Saudi assets in Saudi is a no brainer and if Harry wanted to materially impact the share price asap he would have been working on this option and would be ready to announce. What is 30% worth in Saudi listing as we have heard not dissimilar companies looking at hundreds of millions valuation, even over a billion. Harry has hinted many times that is an option but really if he could actually say this more convincingly perhaps the market would start to put a value on Hawiah.

After listening to the q&a they are doing really what they can in economic circumstances and to my ears saying all the right things. Obviously they have done the classic mistake of believing own hype on timescales. Only in webinar did they start changing tune it takes years. Its disappointing as its rookie mistake and the pouring cash into Northfork is another case of hasting action and a lot of capital tied in a project that is 12 months from fruition. Nothing they are doing is wrong. Its right tech, right approach and right time but economic headwinds have delayed matters. A placing is now out of the question at these levels and since they have a lot of assets i am sure some debt finance can be secured and last 3 months we must secure quite a few million from projects. Its critical Eqtec confirm the market access to debt to secure next 6-12 month runway. If they can do this those nervous of placing will all pile on and we rocket upwards and mid next year Eqtec can do a placing. For me todays price means no placement is likely as it would do far more damage. Of course if they cant access debt or close deals this year their hands are tied but the q&a gave me a lot of confidence we are not dealing with king kanout here and they are quickly adapting. Hoping i can dig some coppers out the back of the sofa and average down on this one before news starts dropping and we bounce over a penny. We cant be worth 50% of our net assets so i think we have hit nearly the bottom but who knows as we live in pretty crazy times. I cant see any stock not haven fallen 50% or more since peak covid and so many are 60-90% down and many are decent companies just swimming against a strong current.

Taking it to the wire. Why? 18 months and at least 12 months wasted faffing. Not sure if AIM would have them back if they delisted but hopefully we do not go there as 18 months is a lomg time.
https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0930/2022093000995.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1qiDp8L3_GoA42ZEXGhBv-rzkNPMaqO-IoZGbrXfGzIncFMPxxCtwQvMs

Great quote and message is clear to focus on now projects and not jam tomorrow. This will turn later this morning once webinar fills in some gaps imo.

“Palumbo says EQTEC's eggs are 'not all in one basket' and as such the plan is to move forward with the projects that have the most strategic value.”

And net assets over £40m and we are worth far less as a company so thats crazy. Lets be realistic about market cap as we are grossly undervalued given the direction of travel. As long as deeside happens and project completion in Italy and Greece this year we wi burst into 2023 a new type of company.

Well given the market cap of Eqtec today these results are impressive given all that is going on on supply side and its not lack of demand holding Eqtec up. If we we came close to forecast revenue in 2022 fully we would be 2.5p and not .35p, which is what happens when you become over confident but world events and lack of management to close deals gets too thin. But so much is happening that the market should eventually digest this overall as positive as frankly Eqtec are in the right place at the right time and with a great strategy for global market leadership and really they too successful having taken on too many projects and facing a lot of indigestion.

“Despite supply-side challenges, demand for EQTEC syngas technology continues to grow. In response, we formalised our France entry, affirmed our capabilities with contaminated plastics and partnered with CompactGTL for liquid fuel production.”

The key takeaway for me is £2.3m is enough cash for second half of the year and gives Kefi wiggle room but i hope October will happen as so far Harry has not moved on that and we are just about to go into the final month. Really hope Harry can push this hard to finally close this once and for all. My only concern is that we have $80m in equity in deal up to 2020 and should be more for 2021/2022 but there is some the warrants that need triggering and still some way to go. I suspect we need financial closure that will trigger 3x and then warrants good to go. would be a great day when that $80m of historic cost is converted into assets, even if it was to some, it was Harrys sunlounger in Cyprus.