Member Info for Simms45

Totally agree. they need to underline timetable to completions and focus on delivery. They can park the hyperbole once we are over this bad patch. with average price target from 4 brokers around 3.5p and we are .35 today there is a 10 bag just for starters if Eqtec can deliver on the revenue and project completions. Then a bit more if they can turn profitable and start converting the 1bn pipeline of pipelines. Today lets just get some projects live and some completion cash in the door.

Its odd as gold in sterling terms is at an almost all time high. We really now need to know if there will be any deal going into the financing as they would not send team of geologists out to Nicaragua from Rio, or whomever it was, if something might not have been agreed on paper and required due diligence as you send the geologists last. Would really change the story if MC could organise a deal or fire up the toll going into the final few months for financing. Maybe next week will bring some positive updates.

I am expecting good a deal of newsflow towards christmas with finance being sorted, Possible certain geologists green lighting some deal on copper or something bigger. We have a vast gold district of 12m ounze, at least approx count by MC, and today we see £8k of shares sold which is hard to fathom the connection to price but the market is the market and one persons loss and is another persons gain. Gold will surely rise, although in sterling it is rampaging ahead. Lets see if see 40s or 50s before christmas as a deal on copper minimises any dilution on finance and we have a lot silver we can also do a loan on.

The key really for pis is this should stave off any placing as we have cashflow, certainly until the end of November and other incomes due but hopefully we will get more details in the interims this week. Plenty to be excited about definitely some short term suffering that we should be over now.

Phew. All seems to be happening at least. We get £6m on or before 30th November that is very useful but subject to signing definitive agreement that seems an almost certainty given investor is a plc investor. Then further £9m sometime in Q1. thats going to have a massive help for cashflows. Blue day incoming given where we are.

We are close hopefully. Would be a turning point if they can finalise the deal before end of month

“The extension to the SPA Long Stop is expected to be incorporated in the heads of terms of the intended sale transaction ("HoTs") which the parties expect to enter into by the end of September 2022, although there can be no certainty the HoTs will complete. “

Lets see if Deeside completes in 8 days time. Sure market is not confident but DP needs to start addressing these closures on projects as i seem to remember saying years ago it is not the pipeline we need to worry about but management time to close deals as they were opening up dozens of projects but a slim management team. DP has got to just focus on the projects nearest cash delivery and thats it. There are so many projects bubbling along and Eqtec will be a major player but today he needs to focus. could be a great time to invest

Good to hear Harry was talking from a conference room that was working with 50-60 people from various government agencies. Seems that progress of sorts are being made. He is sticking to his October closure so hopefully some nuggets after this meeting that hopefully resolves any admin hurdles and gives us some update but hard for Harry to wriggle anymore as as its already the end of September so October is he date with destiny. If we get that away JQ and Hawiah are in the pot as we will convert our $80m sweat equity into real assets that should make it possible for Kefi to access debt markets more in the future as we will have serious assets.

10m is just enough to land that $1bn operating profit at $2k an ounze and $1 AISC but also wanting to leave a little powder in the keg to blow the doors off when we hit 12m-15m ounzes and beyond. MC is sounding more triumphant as he goes forward and if financial closure in sight we should tick up towards 40-50p and a team of geologists on the ground could be a tasty partner and no dilution. If Calibre dont want to make some easy money from tolling maybe Rio does with some gold and copper.

Lets hope Deeside kicks off the start of many financial closures. Have to say the market is priced in for the can to be kicked but but a delay of 1 only month is fighting talk so lets hope the team are pushing this otl or someone has got to have words with thr CFO who seems to be lacking the ability to land any punches.

Great to hear and nice to read MC concurring with my $1bn operating profit forecast and i stand by the concept that if board wanted to pay a £1 dividend within a 3-5 year production period they could. I hope JM and MC maximise extraction of cash out the front door with everyone else. Really do feel an offer will come soon but a little disappointed finance is not sooner as it certainly should be given extended time BFS was taking on. Technicality but all of the key numbers were largely known. Before christmas should really be his target and any bidder had better pop their head up before then. Could be a stellar few months as really 30p is ridiculous and any major would be blinking at the tiny market cap for what we have. 10m ounzes at $2k an ounze would be a big number for anyone!

According to Woodgroup the following is the case so plenty of firepower to expanding “investment to accelerate our strategy” but fingers crossed Deeside gets resolved this month as Eqtec as they need to start closing deals and the CFO i hope is working to unlock all the deals. Couple of weeks could be a game changer for the company and next 3 months must be a period of closing projects before starting anymore as we are drowning in projects but i hope now we can start drowning in financial closures.

“Divestment provides enhanced financial flexibility which will allow the Group to consider further options on the use of proceeds. These include measures to improve the future sustainable cash flow of the ongoing Group through the removal of certain liabilities, investment to accelerate our strategy
and shareholder returns, for example through the restoration of an ordinary dividend

I think my point was clear that if the board chose they could easily pay out £1 of dividends based on the operating profit which is very high. the question is more will they not if they can and this is down to decision by MC and JM and no one else. Both i suspect will want a big payoff and if they cant sell Condor prior to production then dividends are next in line. I dont see MC wanting to create a global gold mine company like Calibre. You just need to look at each company and look at the unique circumstances and motivations. All we can agree on is that share price will be a long way from today and if thats 60 or £1.60 will depend but a smart move by MC would be to go for dividends and get Condor valued on yield as a way to underpin the valuation. I suspect MC and JM once they have filled their boots at these very low levels to go for high share price as MCs golden goodbye is triggered at £1 and £1.50 and i am sure he has that in mind.

Looks the civil unrest is over largely as Tigrayans have agreed immediate ceasefire. Can only help Kefi get the finance otl in coming weeks. At some point Kefi share price will pop significantly imo. While it will take rekindled confidence in the management to deliver what they say we have easily 2-3p on the cards by eoy in my opinion and thats pessimistic if TK, JQ and Hawiah all continue on same trajectory.
https://www.egyptindependent.com/tigrayan-forces-accept-immediate-ceasefire-and-au-led-peace-talks-with-ethiopia-govt/

That should surely be the final technical hurdle to relisting so it looks that CNEL have done everything required. I am sure Hkex will be pushing for improved transparency and more investor engagement but i am sure these matters will not hold up proceedings. Hopefully next week we will at least get a resumption of trading in place for a certain date. Obviously so much more is needed from board to make amends and so far i have not really seen the board do more than technically required. If Hkex has blocked the chairman and CEO from their shady friends business relationships this at least might force them to take cash out the front door with everyone else as dividends. While first half has not been great, but understood due to China lockdown its really the second half that should be stellar and close all projects delayed. Lets get CNEL relisted and then expect considerably better second half of the year

If you look at the BFS, that is barely scratching the surface, just the open pit will generate operating profit of between £408m - £563m depending of gold if $1600 or $2000 an ounze. Off this you need to deduct financing costs and so forth but you need to at least double that number once Americas, Mestiza and underground is added in. This is over 8 years but lets take a lowball gold of $1600 for next 5-7 years and assume 3-5 years of mine operation you can easily see that should be board wish could return £100m back to shareholders that would equate to around £1 in total at todays share price. Whether they do that is another story but the shere amount of cash incoming and is more likely closer to $1bn operating profit from the numbers presented in the BFS over the mine life when you factor in we will be mining 150k gold and not 80k gold in BFS. you just need to consider will MC and team reinvest every penny or will they extract. My odds are that JM and MC will pay out a fair chunk to shareholders and £1 in total over next 5-7 years to me is pessimistic as gold i suspect will be at least $2000.

From my reading JM is a key shareholder and its unlikely a bid will succeed without his approval. Realistically only an offer north of £1 would be seriously considered seriously and offers below batted away, although i am sure MC would like to use to give the market some direction on where Condor should be priced. However its a long long way from today so realistically no offers will be forthcoming. If share price can move towards 60p then an offer of £1 is a fair premium amd would need consideration. It could also flush out a second bidder and would move us up. However while in short-term it might seem good the dividends over next 5-7 years will exceed £1 on their own and company could be valued considerably more.

Looks we finally broke 30p at last and hopefully next week we might get further towards 40p or if we get some news that will step us up quicker. Financing will be soon up on us and then production. 12-18 months.

absolutely. every day we are not in production is another day investors are stumping up the cash to continue and Condor daily costs will rapidly rise as we take on a bigger team. Speed is a key that has partly been lost in the Condor story but onwards we march and the payback very acceptable over the next 5 years with dividends quite likely to be in excess of todays shareprice every year after year 2/3 in production once finance paid off.

It is a very long overdue re-rate given where we are and how close we are to finance and other news and really just down to the market to decide. I suspect buying will continue to build and i think most shareholders will be holding onto their stiock right the way up to 50p so in the absence of forced sellers there is little holding back the share price but volume is still quite low so the now the BFS is out serious investors with deeper pockets will be taking a look. would be nice to see 30p this week and 35p next week and steadily climb over the coming weeks.