Member Info for Simms45

Not sure about that rule. A company is worth what someone is willing to pay. The price will only rise once CNEL provides guidance about future revenues or we need to more likely wait for next interims. Looking at recent news it looks very promising we will bounce back and have accumulated substantial profits so a big buffer so company is sound, especially now duo at top are being closely watched. Have we seen bottom i am not sure. Investors in IPO are nearly 90% down but several investors are fedup or forced to sell. Buyers are waiting on the sidelines to see if CNEL will do anything about it. It is all down the majority owned duo if they want to propel company forwards and i think some investors have decided the duo have other plans not aligned with pis.

you have to ask what the MMs are doing. We have 9k of shares sold and what looks to be 15k bought and we get a 2p drop. Unless something is going on in the background MMs are trying to trigger share sales as this gyrating share price on no volume is annoying as frankly you might think something is up but in fact its just the MMs trying to force some investors to panic sell and then back up we go. With all the efforts of MC we still appear to have a limited investor base. Anyway another week gone which means a week less to financial closure and hopefully a rapid 12 month build plan and get the cashflow flowing .

So one question i have is now we have the final proposed Project finance plan circulated for formal sign-off by each of the syndicate members when they sign this and send back are they then binding agreements and how soon after this will money arrive? in the past Harry has been the master of talking financial closure only for it to be something else. Clearly to have diggers and building happening before the year end we are cutting it fine but want to be absolutely clear what is meant by this as you need to double check sadly with Harry.

I think now company is below £10m certain investors trigger an exit. I suspect those investing at these levels will 3-4x their investment as the next interims should show a return of revenue and profit based on the cryptic update. If information can be believed from RB that the company might formally involve a professional PR agency to disseminate news it will certainly help them considerably but obviously today the market only has information that revenue and profits crashed in last interim so really the company needs to issue guidance to recover that in comming interims or later half. Certainly its now a no brainer for the board to complete a 1-3m share buy back as that would reduce share supply up to 30%, allow investors to exit on mass at a thumping loss of 90% but restart progress. Even though prospects look great we have investors exiting for other reasons and frankly quite rightly. The company needs to access some of the 20m cumulative profits and deploy this. It massively benefits all shareholders and in particular the duo at the top so it might happen.

We seem to have made great progress and for once Harry has not left it until the last day to update but Harry is now nailing completion in mid November, which seems fair to me. I am sure many will jump im with other views but early open discussion and sharing a small extra timeframe looks very promising. Having been watching for a few years whats a few weeks between friends. Onwards and sideways i suspect but positive. Gla

Shanta is well undervalued as is most projects so i do wonder where their takeover might go but 3 suitors is a good start. Lets hope we get 2-3 looking at Condor. I wonder if Shanta is simply making sure the market understands how undervalued they are and possibly no offer will be accepted but they must be serious enough to entertain. Condor is a nice project as we will have 100k and then 150k ounze project with a single mine so completed will be far larger than Shanta and cashflow generative as within 12 months will have paid back all borrowing. Most projects take years so lets not understate just how good La India is as few projects come close with potentially a 10m ounze district.

There is no doublt MC will have been fielding calls and batting them away but the only person who ultimately needs convincing to sell or not is JM so perhaps now those line of enquiries can go through him, arguably the role of a chairman allowing MC to crack on and not get distracted. With two key people owning 25% it means if an offer meets their approval no doubt it will meet pi approval. But we are £1 short i suspect on current silly price of 32p so i doubt anything will transpire. The quicker MC proceeds to financing the better for everyone as even if someone tabled 60p would anyone agree to sell? i suspect not and tabling £1 when shareprice is 32p is not likely to happen as 300% premium offers are few and far between. If they took Condor private then in absence of a visible market price i am sure bigger offers could be forthcoming. Lets just hope JM does not get such ideas.

Seems CNEL are apparently working hard. Hard to exactly understand but we have a 100k tonne plant that has just completed and a whole load more but market has entirely ignored it so far. If i understand correctly this will fire us back to serious revenue and profit this half but as usual its hardly presented clearly.

http://www.zkty.com.cn/a/202210/638.html

“ The EPC general contracting project of the new 100,000-ton/year anhydrous ethanol project undertaken by Zhongke Tianyuan and invested by Jilin Province Xintianlong Industrial Co., Ltd. will be completed on September 25, 2022, and will be completed on 10 September 2022. On the 4th, qualified anhydrous ethanol was produced.
In addition, Zhongke Tianyuan also has 2 sets of anhydrous ethanol projects under construction for the lithium battery industry. Signed a 40,000-ton/year anhydrous ethanol plant refining contract with Ningxia Baofeng Energy Storage Materials Co., Ltd.; and signed an EPC general contracting equipment and material supply contract for the anhydrous ethanol project with China Chemical Engineering Eleventh Construction Co., Ltd. .

These contracts have opened up the application market of ethanol products in the field of lithium battery electrolyte for the company, opening up a new energy business growth point. We believe that with the maturity of the company's technology and the demonstration effect of the above projects, it will attract more and more customers and bring new orders.

Overseas business progress

The epidemic is gradually returning to normal, and the projects in Thailand, Indonesia and Myanmar that have been suspended for a long time are gradually resuming implementation, and overseas business expansion is also beginning to return to normal. Cooperation.

I am sensing the world starting a global Risk On so period so those nursing losses could well see their fortunes recover a little. The slide down over last 12 months seemed to no bottom so expecting the next 12 months restores some faith. PHE now bounding along and Eqtec is now monumentally undervalued since last few RNS give us cash run until later in year and sound cash conservation strategies. Gives Eqtec time to close deals and get some billing in for the last quarter to make up the numbers. Obviously not quite out of the woods (no pun) but we should go into profitability in next financial year as the backlog of deals, projects coming onstream and casg generative and pipeline starts to exponentially come together. Lots of plates spinning but i think management can focus now on Deeside And billington now Northfork is largely resolved. That alone could have taken Eqtec to the brink in the worse scenario but its now sorted until completion and a good source of revenue.

Kefi has no control over when licenses are issued and need to release an RNS do so as soon as practical. This derisks JQ and keeps it on track for production as Harry has said. So far Harry has delivered on his timetable across all 3 projects and the JQ license was expected and now delivered. Firstly you keep RNSs like this separate from other news but just at this moment so many legal stuff is going on you simply do not take any risks or cannot talk about ongoing matters. We will know either when it is all signed and done or we will get a “nearly there” RNS and some delay. Thats it really and personally i take the no news good news approach as it means wheels are in motion. How fast they are turning we will find out but you can guarantee than in that batch of investors and in current climate there will not be a lot of shenanigans. definitely a tough one to close with all moving pieces but as long as we are moving forward that is key. Today we now know if TK goes south we have Saudi that is worth fare more than current £20m market cap so we are not a one trick pony. However i am confident that will government fully on board, workshops of dozens of people, umbrella agreement signed we are not very close to news we want to hear. If share does not move on news i will happily take what shares i can as we should be worth £100m not long after, simply by adding on out £80m of sweat equity into our 70%. There is still the issue we need to pony up some cash to bridge the difference but surely even Harry can finalise the completion and that alone will take us over warrant holders to inject the cash. If all goes to plan 2-3p by christmas seems hardly breaking into a sweat given Hawiah and JQ will be motoring and if Kefi announce splitting Hawiah to be listed in Saudi multiply this number a few more times. High risk but looking good for high return also.

If finance closes and share price does not move i will be the first one to move resources and i am sure many more would as well as TK is massive compared to current £20m market cap. We are talking £320m project that we will own 70% of. With debt payoff pretty rapid we should have a sizeable asset base alone just on this one deal and have the pick of the country for future licenses. TK will unlock the door to significant future projects and mean debt raising on Hawiah/JQ will be possible alongside placings. Would like to see a further RNS this week to support timeline.

Chapter 11 is standard in the US and works so much better than the UK that is a largely a knife edge. It gives companies space to organise their financing which is now done. Nortfork will be out of Chapter 11, subject to ticking boxes, and Eqtec should be the main shareholder by far as the loan we organised will be dependent on that. Good news is we will be live in 2023 with a $4m energy contract. For me Northfork is now safe and sorted and now management can focus energies on Deeside and to keep up the pressure. I will wish i listened to my original advice that the bottleneck would be manpower to get projects otl. Just one of these will absorb all of managements time but have literally dozens and no wonder we simply do not appear to close deals. My guess Northfork was so important to not fail it has sucked up all time and resources as if Northfork went down it could have destroyed any chance in the US. now we could well see 100s of these projects across the US over decade.

Certainly feels we have crossed a psychological barrier of a market cap of £10m. I wonder how the BOD feel that their company is almost worthless and it must hammer sales as companies do their due diligence. Its a viscious circle they need to fix fast. It beggers belief there is not a single word from the company prior to relisting, nothing from “investor relations”. If they dont announce a share buy back at these levels they are going to be classified insane and they should stand down and let a serious management team take over. i had my suspicions we might see 1HK after relisting as everyone knows what the duo are like but they seem to enjoy digging holes and throwing themselves in one after another again and again and again.

Could be the last tango with Rio before they table an offer or become a partner as no one else sends down a team of geologists on this scale according to reports. That would change everything. Having a billionaire in the room when it comes to negotiations makes a whole difference to what was largely a one man army, albeit a very good one but the more serious players we have at the poker table the bigger the pot. The share float is tiny so we know that small volumes shoots us forward and backwards. Even 60p would probably not raise too many long term holders eyebrows and any take out price needs to be £1 or more. Therefore if any 3rd party is serious we need to see 60p share price so a £1 offer could be tabled. Either way JM talking to debt providers is a game changer as financiers will be climbing over one another to work with a billionaire and take Condor more seriously. JM will have enough chums alone to finance this. exciting times just ahead!

Well we are down to just a £10m market cap company. if you have £100k down the back sofa you could snap up a 1% stake. only for the brave but this drop is a shot across the bows of terrible management with a woeful sales campaign outside the PRC. i am hoping a 3rd party tables a big offer and puts in some serious managers who can scale the company globally. If the duo were smart they would probably do a share buy back and hoover up 10-20% of share float and cancel for peanuts. this would mean that they would get back the same stake before their IPO raise as 10HK for almost 85% discount. That would be the smart thing to do but as with everything Cnel they probably will bury their heads in the sand again and be all surprised when something else happens. thank goodness we have RB on board or i suspect cnel would have never returned.

Will Harry pull this off? The market has written Harry and TK off completely but we have had only reports that everything is on for the end of this month of sorts and having had workshops and meetings something does appear more defined than ever. As Harry recently said after signing Umbrella agreement :

"This agreement has successfully guided activities since and is now leading to the syndicate commitment of the full project finance package at the end of October 2022, with planned escalation of activities and unconditional financial commitments as the remaining conditions precedent are satisfied over subsequent weeks - which is normal practice for a transaction of this nature. "

The days are rapidly ticking by and we appear to be anchored to .6. Something has to give. I do not blame anyone to be wary given history but it does feel more robust than ever before. Roll on the end of the month to see how this plays out.

I think the very angry mob exited this morning. as i am sure many here would have done or liked to do. It will churn over the coming weeks but we are now at a $14m valuation. we practically generated this in the 2021 accounts as profit. We are trading at a negative valuation but the market is the market today and CNEL best plan now is to throw $3m at a share buy back. T. If CNEL can sign those delayed contracts then revenues and profits should balloon but of course we will be the last to know and have to wait for cryptic updates in half yearly reports to guess who the client was and whether any of our latest technology is getting any traction.

i am sure it will also help when Rio or Calibre etc come knocking as i think with just MC they would be lowballing him but JM has the financial capital and they will take the company seriously. JM could fund the whole of the finance package himself without too much problem. GIven the way cost of borrowing is going i do wonder if JM might lend Condor all the money at a nice interest rate for 12 months as it could be repaid quickly. I am sure JM after his last company exit with $100sm cash has a need to find good places to earn a return.

We have a power purchase agreement at Northfork of $4m a year and valuations are around $20m+ for the project so there is good money to be made. Our technology and service fees are substantial and will be paid out immediately once the loan lands i am sure again helping the immediate cashflow issue. i would have liked to see Eqtec re-negotiate the power agreements as i am sure they should be considerably higher now thus making the project valuation better but lets see. While they have backed off today, to conserve cash, I would like to see Eqtec at some point continue to take equity in projects as while the ongoing technology and service fees are going to be substantial by holding equity they can double the income from selling the equity and where we have stakes we can see that Eqtec has a commercial reason to deliver. If Eqtec were not invested i wonder if Northfork would just go under. When Eqtec find a buyer for the whole project then we can extract our shareholding on top that should be very decent amount of money depending on the shareholding we end up with. if we get 50% then maybe $10m.

Odd late RNS that no one appeared to act on but nice loan for Eqtec to take Northfork to completion and reduce our cash injection. Great that we have finally steadied that ship and can secured. as much as possible, that it will be completed and that Eqtec will be able to fully bill for technology and services. Could be 50 more of these built just in California if Eqtec get this right.