Member Info for Simms45

2 weeks exactly to the end of the month. Harry has said the binding umbrella agreement will get signed only 2 days ago. Lete wait and see but it will be the first strategically important work Harry will have delivered in sometime as most is just optimistic but never-the-less i respect any company that keeps investors so updated like Kefi, albeit Harry has really got ahead of himself by quite a margin. There are caveats but if the security report ticks the box this is almost home and dry and i am sure the MOM is just waiting for their brown paper envelopes to turn up to miraculously unclog the administrative tasks. Certainly been a very long journey but if we get the umbrella signed we are as close as we will get to knowing this will happen. Whether its October is another matter but it feels that we are close to knowing after a long rd. The stock market is in the duldrums but any company really making waves do get a big lift these days. So many jam tomorrow companies are being smashed in the rocks as everyone moves to less risky areas. Kefi will never be low risk but unlocking over $300m of finance and we look to be a 70-80% owner is a much better place than we are today so the uplift will be decent as we progress.

Looking back you do sometimes question if we should have spent $10m on the BFS and almost 18 months time waiting for it. you might think retrospectively MC should have found some likely lads or partner and just crack as i am not sure if the BFS really have moved a great deal forward that we did not already know and the BFS is really just for banks. However our CAPEX in the grand scheme is quite low and sadly that too has probably jumped 10% at least over last 12 months. MC says he wants to minimise dilution but that time has cost around 30-40% dilution. MC is now looking at a very small stake, limited bonus based on the £1 and £1.50 special bonus in his contract. MC has probably been one of the biggest losers as if anyone else gets into the business he will be quickly jettisoned i would imagine. Ultimately we know the gold in the ground will cover all the investors but the timeline has elapsed and we have had no real meat on partners, toll, financing and all the things that creates value for shareholders.

Yes i also spotted this. One thought is they booked revenue early but loaded all costs into final 6 months. Perhaps they do this normally but the drop in revenue exposed this. If so you would think this would not occur in next interims as revenue is down so any increase in revenue could see rise in profit in the same way but im reverse. Not sure if its true as normally accounting does not really allow this. If all extra costs were for hydrogen they should certainly explain it to be the case. it looks we are on track for return and while i cant see it being the stellar return if they can prepare the ground better they might make some progress but its certainly an anti climax given so much else. also we need to know if the delayed projects are now starting as that was not explained well in reports, although profit warning communication was more saying delay. So frustrating as ethanol according to reports is a massive demand but listening to Cnel its not the case. sadly they are in PRC and not in India or elsewhere that has high growth in Ethanol production so goes to prove exactly how that India PR money was. The plot seriously thickens and i still feel i dont quite know what their strategy is and what is happening to get projects moving and looking at their order book to move projects forward that are ready to go.

This is nice to confirm our equity component in the project is historic investment to date. Makes current market cap when signed a little underweight :)

“Pre-development funding has all been pure equity from KEFI’s shareholders and partners:
• KEFI itself has spent c. US$100M since its IPO in 2006.
• An additional c. US$40M was spent on Tulu Kapi prior to Nyota shareholders becoming KEFI
• KEFI’s partners have themselves spent an additional c. $40M in Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia”

The key is the timeline is on track and we have 2 weeks left of the month so the unbrella agreement will provide binding financial commitment subject to the other matters that should be resolved but these are outside our control but mostly Mom sorting details and thats not a bad place to be as govts tend to act when a lot of money is waiting to be deployed.

Looking good for June signing :)

We have funds to crack on and hopefully some good news is imminent as we now need substance to move forward and not froth. What happened to dataroom talk and toll and BFS. All sadly appear a little in the long grass today. Very frustrating how time is elapsing and there was a time when the BFS might appear early in the New year and now we sit waiting. all fine if deals are proceeding behind closed doors but we need to see some evidence. Given strong buying today this will rise nicely and hope new investors ate long-term and not flippers and holding warrants.

we are close to the middle of the month so if everything is quiet then Kefi should be pushing for the security report to be signed off although its possible the umbrella agreement can be signed contingent on the security report but i would prefer we get this signed off proper as it unlocks the bank debt and then it is really all eyes on MOM to sort out the "administrative/kickbacks" part of this that should be relatively a formality. Could be some delay in the mix but the more we sign off the better and then focus all energy on anything outstanding. getting the umbrella agreement will be a massive win as trying to keep all those plates spinning cannt be easy.

Also need to remind ourselves we are valued at only £27m before suspension and we have accumulated over £30m in net profits. While a £1m profit is not what we expected it is still a profit. Trying my best to put something positive in the mix but no wonder there are no photos of the BOD on the website as i am sure local investors who bought in at 1 HKD are on the hunt for these chaps as even the last interims did not spell anything out that made anyone consider that teh final 6 months were not going to be robust. obviously they knew at the interims already what the situation was as we were 12 months ahead so it is odd they did not sound a bit more cautious to help set the scene. i do wonder if they have engineered this and delayed contracts themselves just so they do not have to declare a dividend or orchestrate something else, maybe a buyback on the lowest price possible. You simply do not know what is going on.

lets see how tuesday goes. Obviously this is incredibly dissapointing but so far every date for return to market has been hit. Obviously Covid has had an impact and countries like africa and SE Asia might have delayed projects as China was less impacted and its good to see CNEL stepping out from PRC and the profits accumulated are in excess of market cap so optimistically if this is a blip and current year is better this will be weathered. Obviously as we know with this BOD is their agenda is probably quite different to everyone elses. They should have had the honourable decency to buy investors out when they left the UK and gone private saving £3m in the process and removing a considerable amount of scrutiny. Really the BOD should hang their heads in shame on all fronts for their handling and stewardship over last few years. There is massive profits in the company to pay a dividend if this is a blip of buy back (more likely) but key here is that we have ticked all requirments neatly to return to Hkex so we have 3 months left. I think it will happen but perhaps not quite so triumphantly. If they can get interims out prior to return it could help the situation.

The question is really if this is a blip and first 6 months of 2022 was strong or what has been going on. If its a blip and those contractscin SE asia and Africa are now on it will be less of a problem. We will see but they must have known this 6 months ago so why not explain the issues then than waiting until the last moment when it causes most distress.

so in the first 6 months of 2021 they make 34m RMB but somehow in the last 6 months of the year, even though order book was big they managed to reverse the whole year to be only 7.8m RMB? How is that possible and why was RB not even aware of this as recently as a month ago when he was promoting a dividend for the finals? Who else thinks that because the BOD are now blocked from getting money out via their mates they are now under pricing contracts and getting kickbacks as something is not quite right here? Given the world demand for Ethanol and production should follow CNEL should have been in a great position and their order book was reported. I guess the only silver lining is we made a profit but frankly it does not help confidence and the dividend would not happen. The fact that this is now the news potentially going back on hKEX is hardly the best place to come from. All i can say is the shareprice was so low that it probably cant go much lower. I hope they have positive news and that "delayed" orders are being signed now as we are just coming up to the half year 2022 so it might almost be better they wait and get the interims out for 2022 if they are considerably better.

Ethanol prices almost at an alltime high so looking good for producers as input costs have not risen as high. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/ethanol#:~:text=Ethanol%20is%20expected%20to%20trade

An umbrella agreement has been known for sometime and is a legally binding contract with enforcable actions included and often used in syndicates where getting 20 companies and associated legal teams all to sign their specific contracts is logistically challenging. The umbrella agreement is what we have been told will be signed this month and it could be a big month if and when that happens. We have indication security report is good to date and MOM must sort any administrative issues. For me its the MOM that needs to pull up their stops but we should get an update of some kind next week given how important this month is.

Ethanol is on a massive tear as petrol continues to go higher. India smashed its 10% target blend and now heading for 20%. World demand for Ethanol will continue with strength where Ethanol is cheaper. Must bode well for CNEL who should be staring at growing order book the way the world is mandating e10 and then some. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/after-beating-10-ethanol-blending-target-india-hopes-some-pumps-will-sell-20-blended-fuel-ahead-of-target-8648811.html

Its incredible we have 17 business days left and everything is in as good a place as its ever been and we are wedged at .73 with minimal trading. Its amazing what 5 years of false dawns does for a company and its management but we must get some update in next week as the only caveat discussed in the rresults that might hold us up was administrative and security for umbrella to get signed. Surely govt can kick this forward if they are serious and security, touch wood, is looking good. Can anyone see the delay? clearly the market is given this up for dead so someone must be able to fill us in as upside is phenominal and downside seems priced in and Hawiah and JQ seems a certainly with Artan stature in Saudi.

Crikey. We are now at the 6 month stage and while the optimist inside hopes there is lots going on in the dataroom after the toll shenanigans i wonder if someone is running down the clock and messing MC about again. to basically stop the BFS from being published it must be serious interested party. Lets hope this deal happens unlike the toll that sadly afffected MCs credibility, although i am sure Calibre planned that all aling to grind the company down. Come on MC lets pull some deals together and get on the fast track.

I agree hydrogen is massive and the future and especially hydrogen storage where cnel are focusing. CNel are only hinting at what they have and while i am all for realism and not blowing trumpet they need to spell out what they have a bit more to start to secure contract interest and raise stock market value so they can do a placing and invest faster. my last info from RB was dividend was only seriously being discussed for finals 2021 and this was before interims so if we are ever going to get a dividend it will be now. It will be optimum news and mean a proper return to the hkex. With massive retained profits we are valued at a negative value today. That cannot be right.

Certainly lets not start counting chickens. If we secure dividend will certainly change the game but with this hermit BODs we have no idea of their motivations.

with this in the bag it looks now we will be back on the hkex very soon as i thought this might be less favourable but looks the BOD are no longer able to exert extreme cronyism and that should help all investors to make sure we get value for money for all procurement. key bit is basically :
"The results of our enquiries, observation, discussion with responsible personnel as well as
examination of documents and records of the Company and its subsidiaries did not indicate
that there was any irregularity or material error. The management has established effective
and comprehensive internal control procedures to regularly review the accounting and
financial reporting functions of the Group so as to ensure that its accounting and financial
reporting functions are sufficient in terms of resources, qualifications, experience, training
arrangements and training budget and that the relevant management and financial principals
have sufficient experience and qualifications to deal with the daily operating matters of the
Group."
https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0602/2022060202126.pdf