Member Info for Simms45

Any update, as far as i know is not expected until up to the end of December so while we would all love a pre christmas RNS we may not get it until later in the month. However for a situation where the creation of value is so huge i am surprised we have fallen back from .9 to .7 when all we are hearing is positive noises. Certainly feels very odd given the value creation event will be in the region of $90m just by converting long forgotten sweat equity into a equity stake. However that equity stake should be worth around £130m just on conservative valuation for TK as we will be fully funded to production in 18 months and this mine will likely have a fuller valuation closer to £250m when production starts. Valuation today of Kefi is £28m and thats not even worth the value of our smallest gold project Jibal Qutman alone, let alone Hawiah that is double TK in size. We will have multiple projects in multiple juristictions. For me it is a great mystery as the market today is assuming this is not happening, and in fact does not even exist. How can an event that will create such a huge overnight underlying valuation creation that must be around £100m not have any value today given we are supposed to know within the next 18 days and the window is quite small given the christmas break for the LSE.

If he is in Nic just prior to christmas then it must be serious and might well result in a pre christmas RNS along the line of Shanta but it does feel that Condor has had enquiries and rather than focus on that opportunity to open up the field and take on a auction with a 3rd party and flush out all possible enquiries at the same time. It obvious bids will come and as he mentions $100m i tend to see that as the bottom end of acceptable bids so question is will Condor get that price or more. Certainly feels even an RNS stating approaches that may or may not lead to an asset sale should siginificantly change the direction of the momentum as at this rate there could be a poor take-up of the rights, although i would assume an investor will be rubbing their hands if anyone does not participate but the share price today is far too close to the rights issue. Maybe MC already has a 3rd party who will buy the excess and might well actively want pis to back out of backing the rights issue as it may well at this rate go below. Obviously the point is to raise money but i sense someone is already waiting to buy up the shares not taken up by pis, could well be Mellon who would have a lot more knowledge of how sales process is going, so he might not be able to participate anymore.

Now MC has confirmed 8 NDAs as of the 1st December he must have several more by now and hopefully he might well be in a position to release an pre christmas RNS, similar to Shanta of several approaches etc, so the market can get behind the company into the final push. Even the low expectation of £100m is 4x todays market cap. He was mentioning up to £200m so that is 8x. If he meant dollars a little less. This could be agreed quickly and companies like First Majestic with their cash inflow from a redundant mine sale and existing shareholding could be one of those options alongside possibly Rio and many many others who all have vast war chests of cash looking for a shovel ready project :) Now the company has come out there could be many different types of exit, partnerships, mergers and who knows. Mako is also a contender for some action but it would make sense. The cash from the rights issue will provide 12 months of runway at least and i am sure someone like FM could mop up all the left over shares so we are fully financed. That would make a lot of sense to FM if they were going to make a decent offer as they would then only be buying out the remaining 85% or so.

Well we have been told many times up to the end of December for financial close. You could argue that most companies would be looking to sign this off pre christmas but Ethiopia does work to a different calendar and their equivalent of christmas is in January but presumably key people will be working to the Gregorian calendar. It is odd how we have drifted back from .9 to close to .7 on low volumes but technically something could happen anytime soon between now and the New Year although i would sense the cut off for early news would be the 22nd December but this could play out until the end of the year. Certainly everything is looking positive on all fronts and Harry has kept largely to his timetable but the sooner this is closed the sooner everyone can relax and move on.

£2m unsecured loan at 8% is a great deal. The warrants are at twice the price of today so while its a nice bonus for Altair frankly its not a bad deal for shareholders as they are diamond hands so any issue of cashflow concerns are now resolved and BOD need to deliver. It would have been better deeside was financed but we will nees to wait for Q1 and hope the bod move on from the low level investors and partners and moves onto bigger fish. This is key. It will happen just sadly longer than we would all like.

You heard it first hand Mc is looking between £100m-£200m now whats not to like if we get anywhere close to that but 6 under NDA and this video is now 10 days old so we could have many more and suspect all of them will be aware of what the take out price is. Could be a real bun fight starting. I can certainly see this news is well timed and could help to improve sentiment as thats a lot of interest and those opening numbers are pretty attractive. Loading up at 15p or 17p in open market could well be a 3X return in 2-6 months if this comes together.

Not really sure what the plan is as obviously it does make sense to see if they can realise a quick win prior to other decisions such as mine finance or other types of opportunities as it does make sense to take this along with another party. I do wonder if FM are going to be frontrunners after the news on the non core asset sale. Condor will have had enquiries and were probably worthy to start this short sales process. Potentially First Majestic are in the mix and must assume Calibre will also have interest along with other locals parties and we just need 2 serious buyers to make decent auction process. Then you have the Chinese and other countries who have little interest in any US sanctions, and in fact probably taking full advantage. You also have Russian money no doubt in this part of the world looking for something to do as so many other doors are closed. I am confident we will have interest but just a question at what price.

Remember Condor has a massive tax loss on the books so that is worth a considerable amount of money to the right company. I think we have losses of £40m on the books that can be offset against future profits so that is worth a fair amount of money when you consider no tax will be paid on that profit. Therefore you could sell the underlying assets for 50p and then we are left with a cash shell that would have a value up to the tax loss that might be worth £15m if we still hold licenses and so forth not sold in the asset sale. TheFirst Majestic news could be very interesting and you do wonder if with that sale they might make a play for Condor. Why not as they would not have sold us a mill and took paper at 50p if they did not see the value. Now shares are at a criminal 16.5p, sadly reflected in some bad decision making, they could table an offer or even be a white knight and do a joint venture. For me the news of First Majestic could not have come at a more pertinent time.

Calibre are certainly in a very strong position to be in the mix for some of the assets if the sums of the parts makes sense. Obviously we need 2 interested parties to make anything happen here to bat away the lowball offers that i am sure are swirling around. Rio specifically partnered with Calibre to find assets and so far they have bought nothing. Does the recent wobble from Sleepy J rule them out but Rio are in probably the most dangerous countries in the world so maybe they can manage the risk. Lets hope those rights shares go into diamond hands or we face a battle to get back to 20p at this rate. All shares will be taken up, excess will be sold to a 3rd party, so Condor will get the full cash injection. We would at least as a 12 month runway but what bad timing all of this and very poorly executed to largely to the benefit of JM.

Share price recovering very strongly now as i think investors look at this more strategically and decide jettisoning flaky investors and swapping for deeper pocketed strategic investors is the way forward. DP has far better partners to call upon and this Deeside project is a big deal for waste to energy so someone will want some positive green PR.

I think in the balance of things we will recover steadily today as realisation of medium term kicks in and finding a bigger and better partner and agree that Wood must be in the ring as seems a perfect project to work on. If we get news like that would be very positive but project is not delayed as long as the long stop date stays the same. In hindsight would have been nice to enter at these levels.

I think we have known all along that in the early days DP was partnering and getting investment from a few shaky partners. We have jettisoned them and there are much bigger fish to pursue. I agree in medium term this is good news and you notice longstop is unchanged so i think they have a investor ready, very attractive entry today

The longstop is unchanged, the project is still moving forward and possibly we are going to move away from shady financiers and find deeper pocketed investors. The missed revenue will be recorded in next years results. Not ideal but it looks to be delayed. Would have helped sentiment but if we find a bigger fish investor it might be positive.

“In terms of funder interest, the Company is in a very different position now than a year ago. We have a number of prospective funders interested in the Deeside project, and we increasingly find ourselves speaking with bigger and better organised companies with clearer reasons for working closely with new infrastructure technology providers such as EQTEC. We remain committed to announcing the funding of Deeside in early 2023 and to moving at pace from there toward financial close and construction start.“

Well 30th came and went and since HOTs were set to be signed by not updating we can assume the can kick rns is not happening. That only leaves a positive rns in the morning. Well thats what i hope anyway as they cant give a date and no update.

Condor is so illiquid that even a small level of selling can cause this share to drop hard and the possible overhang could be substantial for many months sadly. I am hopeful MC will announce some interest before christmas and the share price to jump back to 20-30p but my worry is they have done the dirty and precisely done this in the wrong order to benefit JM. Normally RNS would announce interest in company assets so opening to public auction through Hannon. Share price booms and then announce that to facilitate sale they have taken a secured loan of £1m secuted on £5m mill to see us through 4 months process. That would have been job done and maximisation of all shareholder value. They have precisely done the opposite. Smash the shareprice first with a bad RNS explaining they are in a desperate sale of assets at worst possible time imaginable, let JM take then take a 10% stake for £1m and now he will be up to 29.9%. Then sell asset and lower price and give less back to PIs but JM will get 29.9%. they really must tell shareholders they still intend to go into production as we are now in the worst imaginable position without some clarity on buyers. To me they MUST have had knowledge of interest prior to their RNS on selling the asset but not saying that meant JM could carry out his hatchet job and dilute pis. The worst part is that if anyone does not take up their rights issues they will flog this to a bucket shop who will dump these shares at 15p for a long-time to come. Of course they could do something positive but its obvious that since JM has taken control of the company he will stuff everyone else including MC I suspect so he should watch closely.

The only benefit of JM taking this massive landgrab at 15p is it brings down his average substantially so he might be persuaded to sell for a lot less. he cant go above 29.9% that he is probably close to now so he might take 50p now for the asset for quick sale. All great for him but to PIs detriment who do not get 2.5 freebie warrants for every share they buy. I really wanted to see the option for Condor to be a clean takeover target but this rights issue killed that. This means theclear and transparent option is no longer realistic at the current shareprice. Selling off the assets means we need to trust JM and MC to not start awarding themselves crazy bonus shares and pay offs. Will JM now go back to award MC a bonus for sale of company for 50p and not the original £1 or £1.50 i wonder to pay MC back for awarding the 2.5 warrants freebie? We have to now trust MC but it is JM who is in charge. I hope everyone has a lot of belief that JM will consider PIs as this last land grab and the probable offloading of all other shares not taken up to vulture funds s not helping, They had a secured loan, maybe asking for directors guarantee but in reality we have serious assets totally £10m so in worst case scenario bank could easily recover a loan of £2m for 6 months and if they had 20% interest rate would be very handsomely rewarded with setup fees. Also JMs move to put his own Yes men on the board increases his stranglehold. I think we can forget about MC going forward as he has been put out to graze. We can only hope Hannan have 2 buyers, we get 50p for the asset and the directors act honorably and not not give one another bonus shares. In reality they should be giving back their shares and doing everything in their power to look after pis who backed them to the tune of £50m or more over 12 years. They will of course blame sanctions but this is a cop out frankly. Anyway we need to move on and accept what has happened. They now need to urgently release an RNS stating they have interested parties, they should state this process will last only 2 months or they will crack on with financing. In regards to the latter it is obvious they need to team up with a cash rich mining company and take a stake in the mine so pis benefit from the future. if we have invested £50m to date and partner inputs £70m then something along the lines of 40:60 would work. This would give pis access to the future benefits and not sell this as a going concern.

This is all about management focus. They have now turned around 4 projects in various ways over last 3 months. Deeside will be very much on the top of their pile so if they get this closer to fruition the management will start to prove they are chomping through the projects and delivering. If they can keep up the momentum we will get a strong upward push going forwards as projects will have their own momentum as opposed to last 6 months where it has seemed to be the management trying to push every project up a steep hill. Lets hope we get this one to the top and breathe a sigh of relief. Then they can turn all firepower towards Southport and others.

One thing i noted in the RNS is that if you do not take up your rights the board can sell these to a 3rd party so my expectations is that this will be fully taken up, although it will not be by JM as he will be too close to the 29.9% stake by the time all his warrants etc trigger. For me i hope this means that if they do not find a decent buyer asap they will crack on. They simply cannot just sit around waiting for a buyer. They know the only way to properly sell the asset is to get it financed and on the way to production as 50p for the asset now seems a stretch. The shareprice if we get financed will move towards NAV and buyers will be more confident to buy an asset close to production and open a much bigger pool of buyers. Putting up an asset for sale in this way means only a major can take it on realistically who has the $100m to go into production. I am simply miffed how with all the enquiries they must have been getting from possible buyers why they could not have written the last RNS to say they had some interest to buy the asset and to get the best price are opening to a wider market to see if a sale is in the best interests and put a 2 month window on this process and not the current indefinite time. This would have sent the shareprice a lot higher. I think if JM was not Chairman that would have been the RNS as i am sure MC has had enquiries but almost certainly JM wanted to fill his boots and force the share lower so he could get the maximum shares for the least investment. Surely now he has close to his 29.9% stake he can get behind the shareprice as he alone stands to gain the most from this process, even though he has done everything largely to suit his own position, especially where the company turned down a secured loan? MC has been royally cucumbered by his chairman.

I think the issue of the loan was the secured part. Was it secured on the mill or was it secured on JM or MC. This is now in control of JM to do as he pleases. The £2.5m of free warrants is his way of bringing his average down on the cheap. Fair play to him but he is nearing the 29.9% mark and then he will need to make an offer for the rest of the company. Taking this private and removing the share price from buyers eyes is what all Private Equity do. Really hope he is not going to be a block in the sale of the assets as his 15p shares have made it almost a no-go for a acquisition. This leaves just asset sale but remember if that happens where does the proceeds go and how soon would it be returned to shareholders. By exploiting this situation he has taken this option off the table as he has driven the shareprice into the floor. The £1bn of gold and probably £10bn of gold is going to make someone very happy and rich and i hope pis get a little but now wondering if JM wants it all for himself and MC has been the useful so and so to aid his retirement fund.

Key part of this deal is the 30th Nov so i am expected RNS tomorrow or the 30th. Could be a decent re-rate.

“The non-binding elements of the HoTs, which include summary terms set out above, will be incorporated into definitive and binding documentation (the "Definitive Documents"). It is intended that the Definitive Documents will be entered into as soon as reasonably practicable, and in any event by 30 November 2022, with Completion to occur by the Long Stop Date, although there can be no guarantee that the transaction will proceed to completion“