Member Info for Simms45

i really do not understand why HAA is talking with TW who only posts on a premium site so that no-one else can see. he should, if he plans to speak with someone who posts on wider bulletin boards. i think any content posted on TW has a moral right to be in the public domain so a short synopsys or any key data would be helpful. Of course it is good to hear HAA has updated TW positively but hearing he will hit his deadline this month would be one i would most like to hear as we will then convert our $90m of historic sweat equity into real equity, which is a massive value creating event for all shareholders. there are only about 5 market days this year so he is cutting things fine. Again if he updates that we have every signed subject to government that would be a big step forward. What we need to see is something has happened in the last 2 months.

DP is a gungho CEO and that can be hugely advantageous at the right moment in time and we have built a world leading gassification technology company in a very short space of time spanning most of the world with partnerships and a very significant pipeline. if we had another 2 years of great economic back wind we would be in a different place but the tide has gone seriously out for everyone and investors have pulled up the drawbridge waiting to see what happens and simply not investing. CEOs like DP are always caught out as they never have enough consideration for these types of events coming around every 10 years or so. However DP and team have done a lot in the last 6 months to stem cashflow issues and settle many many serious concerns. We are now coming through that and plenty of positives will come in the New Year. Gassification will only become more and more important and bigger infrastructure partners will see the MDCs working and start looking at 100s of these types of plants across different feedstocks and we can manage 100s of feedstocks so not a 1 trick pony and adapt to the market. Just in California off the back of Northfork there are dozens of possible additional similar projects that will happen. Certainly has not been easy on investors and a shame DP did not take a bigger placing when the share price was 3p as we would have dodged the current situation comfortably with cash on hand. There is plenty to look forward to over the coming 12 months if you can get over the last 18 months of over optimism on the delivery side of the equation that was not met by everyone else involved. While not happy to see the shareprice at .3p i am comfortable better times are ahead of us and quite soon hopefully.

firstly you need to have made a profit on your investment as many here will be offsetting their losses against their taxes. as to dividend it will depend if you are lower rate or higher rate tax payer. 8.75% for those under £50k and obviously more painful above. I think anyone here would be happy to make a profit on Condor as today at the current share price no one has made a profit as we are at a all time low. If we get a 40p-60p takeout and we end up getting a 30-50p dividend maybe some people will be in profit but this is an opportunistic move to see what might happen but hope it is only a 1-2 month push and then get back to plan A and build the mine. When you have a mine with over £1bn of gold and probably £10bn given MC has spent 12 years not really sure why he does not go the final 2 years and reap proper rewards. in the first few years of production it would be feasible to not pay back the loan but actually extend the loan and just pay out th excess $80m in the first year and then pay back the loan in the 2nd year of production. rushing to pay back the loan makes no sense if MC and JM are looking for quick payback. I am hoping a partner will come in with the cash and we keep 50% of the company or something like that so we would benefit from the future. MC could stay for a further 2 years and oversee and let a decent miner finish the project and use Condor and its hefty tax loss status as the vehicle. if a miner had $20m cash they could leverage that up with borrowing to go to $100m and make an offer to go in 50% with Condor and everyone can do well out of it. They can get their loan repaid in 12 months so they end up with investing $20m for 50% of a producing gold mine. There should be plenty of savvy mining companies (FM and RT) who could work something along these lines if MC does not sell Condor cheap. Personally i would be disappointed with a $100m asset sale. lets hope that as MC recently mentioned $10m-$200m is possible as that would be acceptable to most i suspect but lets not take too longer waiting as that is the killer.

While never helpful my understanding is that this all relates to activity in November or October and probably any recent activity is that of the Ethiopian government forces bringing back security. however if you go looking there will always be some activity in the Ethiopia but Tigray now has a peace settlement in place.

The last information we had is that we have several deep pocketed investors looking to finance Deeside and jettisoned the early partners who were largely too small to add value. I am not aware of anything else in the public domain and this should complete before the end of February, which is not long away.

“On the one hand, it is disappointing to see this negotiation for purchase of the Deeside project fall through, with the consequential impact on our 2022 forecast. On the other hand, we view this setback as temporary and not a major block to progress with the Project. We have already turned to other potential investors and committed ourselves to securing an alternative financing solution quickly. In terms of funder interest, the Company is in a very different position now than a year ago. We have a number of prospective funders interested in the Deeside project, and we increasingly find ourselves speaking with bigger and better organised companies with clearer reasons for working closely with new infrastructure technology providers such as EQTEC. We remain committed to announcing the funding of Deeside in early 2023 and to moving at pace from there toward financial close and construction start.“

What encourages me a lot is the umbrella agreement was all duly signed on time by all investors. There is no reason now to assume the same investors have not done the same with binding agreement. its possible that its all done subject to government approval or anything else outstanding so if Harry is in that place then he has leverage to lean on whoever is holding things up. We will see but its very quiet and Harry has been on the hotline to TW regularly so all seems to be ticking nicely. i think TK is imminent as all steps over last few months have been very positive.

Its a good point that investors will sign and file with their lawyers for release subject to anything outstanding. Lets hope investors havr done that and if anything is outstanding it is getting the attention it needs. On this basis then an RNS around 30th December seems more plausible as Ethiopian government probably work normally over Christmas and i doubt the government will want to be holding this up as it means a lot to their countries presentation to the world. Would prefer a pre christmas sign off and maybe that is still possible as Harry ticks off the investors. Also what happened to the updated resource for Hawiah as i thought that was due this quarter or did i miss something?

I just cant see 20-30 investors all able to sign off docs. Many take long christmas breaks and if we get signatures Harry would need to release news. What are chances 100s of lawyers across all these companies will be available. To me its this week or a 30th Dec delay RNS. I know Ethiopia does not celebrate our christmas but i suspect a lot of the lawyers used will be outside of Ethiopia and US or European based. Anyway while it would be nice i am patient as just one of this unbrella agreement might have come unstuck in the global meltdown.

Well neither are guaranteed. I see the buy back more likely than a rights issue as today a 20% rights issue might bring in £1.5m so not useful today. A 10% buy back is only £800k today so thats a bargain and should happen asap. what it will do to share will depend on those looking to sell. I suspect 10% might move it up go .2 as on opening day a massive amount of shares were dumped around this price. i cant imagine the bod seriously doing a rights issue unless its a stitchup and a further land grab by the bod. sadly would not put it past this crowd but non execs and hkex will be watching closely as the duo cannot be trusted.

Great news and a big plus for proving the platform. Thats one off the block and only about 13 to go and then 100s more in the pipeline! We will now get steady income from support and maintenance of the plant and a chunk of the £1m profit this will make yearly, things are looking up and expect RNS next week. Certainly will give us a spring next week.

The aim of warrants is to bring cash into the business simply from investors so there are cases where options are triggered above share price where cash is needed asap and investors are close to the business. However options are normally only triggered if price is above and just before they expire. Any warrants of options about to expire will do just that. However if we get a sniff in the New Year we should go back to 30-40p or more depending on the number of parties.

Its definitely good to see North Fork cracking on as its a biggie strategically and these photos show progress compared to the last set but Eqtec want the market to know. I would like to know if he meant Q1 2023 or Q4 commissioning as we need get these projects firing next year as if they fall into place we could see a drammatic turnaround. Certainly a Tricky 2022 but my word when you go through your lse watchlist and look at all share prices since Dec 2020 the falls have been incredible. hard to find a single company not in double digit falls so at least we are still in business. Eqtec i am still firmly believing in will come good in 2023 but for management to not spot project delays and manage cash was poor management no doubt about it. Management resources have always been my number 1 concern and by commissioning we all management to fight the remaining fires. Last 3 months have been a huge turnaround and Q1 we should start to see real progress. Nothhfork alone must have sucked up 70% of management time sorting out the mess.

Harry has said sometime this month we should get those binding signatures and that would mean next week or the small gap between Christmas and New Year. Seems very tight imo but we must assume some update RNS is iminent. Does feel a lot like January but you never can say as we have had total silence and TW has been on the hotline so something is brewing but how long to wait is the question. Harry must be pushing hard for pre christmas but largely its probably govt controlling the time.

There will be someone hoovering up the stock, maybe an MM filling an order from all those investors who have sold to take up the rights as price has anchored to 16p. It will be interesting to find out, if we are told, who might take up all the leftover stock. The only possible silver lining is that JM has now dropped his average a good amount so his price expectation might be at the lower end of $100m but still 4x todays share price. he should make ok money at that price. i do wonder that if price expectations are not achieved if the eventual buyer might not be JM himself. if you think about it he now has basically 29.9% and he has the money to build the mine and extract the billions. we have to assume the mill purchase was to build out the mine and since we did not sell the mill we must still have the plan B as build the mine ourselves.

Key line you need to read between lines is

“Any basic entitlements in the Open Offer not taken up by Qualifying Shareholders may be placed by the Company at its sole discretion“

So for me it was clear a 3rd party is likely to pounce as 15p is a bargain when we are worth £25m today. Its pretty clear offers will be more than this so stands to reason an investor would have a very good chance of multiplying their investment at these levels. Also whole process would not start unless we already had tentative enquiries. Certainly by Q1 its a yes or no and probably more like end of January.

Its a good point about foreign holders so not sure extent of that. I assumed anyone who did not have cash would have sold 1/6th of their holding when rights was announced. Even yesterday you could sell at 16 and buy at 15 in open offer and i would suggest we need £2m+ for at least 6-9 months runway. I suggest we get full funding because it was an option in the open offer that MC had option to sell remainder. Therefore its odd to suggest this unless a 3rd party was not all arranged. I would have liked less dilution at this very low price buy when i read that it looked to me someone was waiting to buy the leftovers. Maybe FM or someone else but at 15p with possible 3-4x in 3 months it is very attractive to someone if we get asset sale, possibly even the eventual acquirer. Maybe im wrong but just feels some 3rd party was lined up.

At the end of the day i am sure we will get full funding as plenty will have asked for a lot more than the basic element. The offers will be coming in but suspect they will provide more news in the New Year but i have to think this drive down was orchestrated to allow JM to get his average down. Nicararagua stocks like Calibre are almost back to pre Sleepy Joe remarks so its fair to say the market has ignored any future impact. Really its now for MC to drop the ball so hopefully he does not at this key point as if this was his 12 year plan i hope he had the exit and likely buyers firmly in his sights and its now his time to deliver. Personally some update prior to christmas would help.

Will certainly help change momentum for Eqtec to get this project live and cashflow flowing. Quite a big relief. At todays price DP and the rest of the board put in a sizeable chunk at .5p at the last placing so investors today are getting in at 50% discount to what the board must have thought was a very favourable entry. The market is the market but it will be hard to not see that the current price being looked back fondly in 6 months time. We now have Altair loan at a favourable rate for current times and projects like Italia will start to bring in much needed cashflow for the forseeable future or until they sell on the project. Shame deeside was delayed again but the long stop is still in place and they are talking to bigger fish so it could all turn out to be far better in the future. We sooner we can jettison some of the early partners the better.

I would point out mid November deadline was for bank sign off and was completed. Cant agree more about Harrys use of words to make it sound that financial close has been close over the years but we are in totally different postion today as we have umbrella agreement to confirm we have real investors and not in Harrys imagination, banks signed off and government onboard. Of course anything is possible and the sooner we get definitive signatures that are binding, even if cash might not all arrive day 1 thats where we need to be. Its possible last business day before christmas we get an update as i do not think anything will then happen until January. While it will be a great christmas present key is that we are moving on and really not much else i am aware holding things up and surely government would sort anything they need to do if they are supportive, as we are continually led to believe. Its a longway from blighty but surely most people are aligned as bank debt was the biggie really.

Well its fair to say offers for the assets will be north of 15p a share so on that basis a good investment if you are new to Condor as you might well see a sizeable return within 2 months as offers should be a announced early in New Year as miners who have cash are not planning to sit around as they want to deploy the cash as quickly as possible and generate sizeable returns. There will be vultures but they will just be sitting on the sidelines. The chances of no offer is highly unlikely in the current climate of mining companies flush with cash looking for a home and Condor has a clean asset to be sold and its almost more attractive than an existing mine that would probably not meet the acquirers ambitions. La India can start up with 150k ounces off the bat if the acquirer wants to invest more and i suspect will do. The 80k starter plan is really just for Condor so go alone and personally i think that is still the right path to take as the short-term returns are very high given all capital is repaid in 12 months of production leaving a cash machine. Certainly twiddling thumbs will not create any value and in January or possibly earlier we should know if we have offers. The greatest damage will come from time elapsing and i certainly hope we are not twiddling thumbs in March next year as we will have weeds growing back and La India will go back to its pre-existing clearance.