Member Info for Simms45

I just want to see TK close this month. No need for update unless we are pushed back to february/March but if we were we would have got an update RNS by now i suspect. I have a good feeling about next week, although i am probably in isolation on that but Harry has done what he needed and something is slowing us down. Harry missed his $500k bonus so he is probably not too pleased. Decent ethiopia peace article in Reuters today so security is strong https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ethiopia-sets-out-long-road-peace-after-two-years-war-2023-01-05/

Just my hunch sure but if you look back if Harry says he will get something done by end of a month etc we normally got a delay RNS on the last day possible. Feels to me we are waiting for something and we are not a month away from finding out or really i would think he would say so. I also guess its a very key moment so does not want any RNS that might unsettle anyone. Share holding steady, gold strong and Ethiopia pretty peaceful so all looking in decent shape all things considered over the last few years.

Once upon a time 10m shares was worth a lot more than today but today 10m is immaterial. I think the 7.5m after hours today was a buy as no sell today was ever above .28. Lets get that Italian MDC RNS otl and then Croatia and then some decent news on North Fork and Deeside then lets see how the future stacks up. if we have had a forced seller then surely its best time to hoover up at .28p and open to all. I remember when Woodford imploded and all his investments liquidated. Most fell 75% and some good buys so likewise i just cant believe that in the balance we will not get decent updates as basically 2022 was pushed back to 2023 and maybe then some. If we get 2/3rds of what was expected in 2022 and 1/3 of what is expected in 2023 we will be flying mid year.

Gold rally is affecting all goldies so Condor should get a decent rise but will take a while to get back to 33p just before JM dropped his bomb and hoovered up £1m at 15p today and a further £2m warrants at 15p at his time of choosing. When gold is looking ready to rise further and smoke and mirrors with sanctions surely its times like this when Calibre might suggest toll mining and get the show on the road and maybe strike some deal further down the road and tell the chinese to pay decent money in 18 months when we are in production of 1m ounces at $2000 gold. crazy to sell out now unless its closer to £200m, which to me is what Condor could extract in just 2 years of production or even less with some debt thrown in from forward selling gold. Calibre toll deal could come out the woodwork as surely Calibre were vultures hoping Condor would go bust, although with JM that was never likely was it. They have already wasted maybe £100m in gold sales as it could have been operational years ago and would have been straight profit for Condor and calibre. Madness to literally throw money down the drain with a mill at Calibre barely used gathering dust.

looking generally positive as now into first week with no update and i take that positively as Harry normally dropped his delay RNS at late he said something would happen. certainly all looking very positive on gold price and security in Ethiopia. Edison, while comflict of interest, promote a yearly dividend equivalent to current share price in 3 years so even dividend investors might start to pile in to access dividend as well as capital appreciation over next few years. Realistically if they could deliver a .6p dividend even a 5% dividend yield would take share price to 12p so if Harry can button down expected dividend expectations that can have a big impact on share price over next few years. However all hands on TK resolution that i hope comes next week as any longer i suspect Harry will need to come up with a pretty strong and positive delay RNS. Hope not as i think he has run out of excuses and jobs that still need doing.

The only factor i can see that could help get us out of trouble is a parabolic gold price. Currently 1861 but if we hit 1900 it might add momentum to the bids. Certainly 1900+ gold will give us a good wind. At same time it makes going into production far more attractive and gold loans will be forthcoming if they lock im gold at 1900 with delivery of physical in 2024 so speculators could do well out of betting on gold rising. That will only happen if gold gets its mojo back and with scant safe havens gold looks odds on a good place to park cash. i was always amazed gold had got motored last 6 months but it looks that it is catching up and global governments are building gold reserves.

So according to update even Tether gold approached Condor who would offer Condor $60-70m loan as long as Condor repaid in physical gold. If Condor could take the Tether gold and liquidate it into equivalent dollars and legally achieve that and get other gold loans from other investors you might well have a no dilution story. Certainly makes you wonder why Condor at an all time low in the industry for gold asset values has not taken the bull by the horn and cracked on. If we unlocked the funding in December we would probably be 40p+ and a far more attractive takeover as the financial risk would have been done. Now we just sit around twiddling thumbs hoping someone will make a decent offer when its obvious it will be far less value creation than going forward with the mine and maximising shareholder payback in the first few years of production and selling a producing mine. Totally different ball game and current approach is leaving £100ms of value on the table. We will see but its sad to see that we were pushing well into the 30s about to finance and we end up hitting rockbottom at 15p and now going cap in hand to possible buyers. To me it is all the wrong dynamics but at same time there is no way MC would have taken this option if he did not have indicative offers of $100-$200m already penciled in. we will see and it should be January we know if JM is a shrewd investor or lost the plot.

This is what makes Kefi so exciting once TK has signed off the financing. TK is the key that unlocks Hawiah value as today TK is massively overshadowing an incredible resource in Saudi that is valued at 0 but the latter rides heavily on TK finance getting away to give back HAA his mojo amongst investors going forward. HAA has burnt so many investor bridges over the years and why we have such a hammered market cap today. Without the issues we would be 3-5x today but HAA carries a heavy burden of missed deadlines. However if TK does get financing we will have ability to borrow on our asset base and future revenue to fund Hawiah and placings will be a doddle as we will be a rising star. Hawiah on funding of TK is probably immediately worth $50m-$100m to Kefi just for starters, although market will obviouly take longer to accept that. When you look at GGP, while they have dropped a lot over the last 18 months ,with every other explorer they are still worth a massive £400m but quite a long way off. Today Kefi is worth £28m but our future projected revenue and earnings will put us in the big league by 2026 and i do not see that with TK, Haawiah and JQ in production and Hawiah spun out onto the Saudi exchange we will not have see the better part of $600m+ value creation. That is a top draw number for late 2026 but with a perfect wind and with TK financed the rest will run a lot smoother in Saudi

I am feeling confident we could get update this week, if not tomorrow. The fact the DFS was not released for Hawiah i suspect is more because they know it would have had no impact on the shareprice as TK needs resolving first and hope as much news is being atacked up over coming months. If we get TK financed and then a week later a big Hawiah update and then JQ then this would build serious momentum, and rightly so. Just TK financing without factoring in any upside we should see $90m increase in market cap (3x current share price) just because we convert our sweat equity into 70% equity of a $320m project for minimal dilution. We should see a lot more and this was 3p when Hawiah and JQ was still early days. As Harry says we should have 3 producing mines by 2025/26 and that will put us into a serious position, especially if we can float Hawiah in Saudi where other similar projects are getting valued in the high humdreds of millions. Hawiah could eventually be worth a billion as we have only just scratched the surface according to Harry.

So recapping on HAA bonus arrangements he looks to have missed his first $500k unless cash came in on the 31st after bell had gone. We will see but lets hope he can hit the shareprice target of 3p to the benefit of ALL shareholders in the coming weeks.

Milestones for cash bonus
Harry Anagnostaras-Adams
Tranche 1: Arranging a long term project finance facility for the Tulu Kapi Project and, not later than 31 December 2021, receipt by the Company of at least the first US$20 million of project funding. Additionally, Tranche 1 will only be paid when the closing mid-price of the Company's shares is above 3.0p for five consecutive trading days.

For sure Harry has missed so many deadlines it is baked into the shareprice and why we are valued for same price as nice pad. painful as it is i hold that the first week of January we will get an update, whether its the one we all would like is another matter. Patience is massively tested if you have been invested years here and heard it all before but this is a very different set of RNS updates and while i almost now expect a delay RNS there does appear to be fewer hurdles now and believe its closer than ever. Its a good point on the cash bonus as i think its correct he will have missed the deadline unless its signed technically securing his bonus and waiting release and being held up by nomads or whoever it might be. I will just be happy to move on the will he, wont he and look to the future as Kefi could well be the stock of 2023 and reach double digits if Hawiah and JQ also cross the line. however all eyes on TK as it opens the door.

I hope you understand a BB is a place of personal opinion mixed with insight? we are all guessing based on what we have learnt. If you look today almost 0 RNS and then compare with number of RNS in January. How many RNS go out on a friday and compare to a monday. Ask yourself why, but hope its not necessary. We have the reversal of QE and the tide has been going out for last 18 months and we are in a reverse of 2020 when companies are worth very low amounts. Big institutions have been reeling and pulling out of the stock market. It looks a lot like a classic over-reaction but when will it turn?
Any company with news will do their best to release optimally and more often monday/tuesday in the week. Company valuation we might all want to reflect correctly but it obviously is not today. If Kefi can pull the trigger it might make it stand out proper and a SA update following on TK could really move the dial. Thats my hope as we should be 2-3p by this point buy investors are running scared. We will see or not in Early New Year. For me no news when Harry said December means we are close.

well you are completely right in that as recently as the 28th November Harry was saying sign-off for definitive agreements will be December and sounds that TW had more recent updates to say the same. I think i said the first week of January largely as if he released this tomorrow it might reach a small audience as most people are away so perhaps for the best momentum it would be better to release in January when everyone is back. My only reference to the government is that there was a list in 25th Nov RNS and government and related agencies came up a few times and Harry had intimated the government needed to make tweaks to get this otl. i am hopeful they are all done as he had a month to deliver but this list seemed to be the issues back at the end of November. i am sure all standard stuff but we know governments and ministries are just very slow so just a guess as why we are still waiting as commercially everyone else is signed up in late November so most of december seems like paperwork that might include governments and ministries.

"As with any project financings standard conditions must be satisfied before and after signing of definitive agreements by all parties, including completion/registration of documents with the various Government agencies, opening international project bank accounts in collaboration with the National Bank of Ethiopia, placing insurances internationally through the Ethiopian agents, registering loan-security, receiving confirmations of tenure for mining and exploration and the independent experts' confirmation that conditions on the ground remain conducive to the planned operations."

Banks signed off loan in December and investors were all signed up via the umbrella agreement. the security situation has been favourable so i understand really it is now the government, and more like ministry of mines, not pulling their weight or perhaps holding out for some brown envelopes but it felt their was little left to do. however Harry is the grandmaster of spinning this out so not surprised if he releases a RNS stating definitive agreements are now ready to be signed in Q1 and so on. I certainly hope not as Harry has been adamant it would finalise this month. If it happens first week of January everything will be good.

What we have now though is a monumental overhang at 15p. We have £3m sitting at this buy price so i can just sense this is going to be quite sticky to get the price to rise without real value creation in bids for the assets. little else is going to move us, except perhaps risimg gold but less so as we are not financing the production today, If we now end up dropping the sale sign for lack of sensible offers it will be a further struggle now to formalise the financing as before this disastrous placing we were over 30p and we are now 50% of that just to raise a pitiful £3m. one of the worst decisions made by the bod. A total own goal when other options of loans in earlier RNS was turned down. what reasons they turned down loans and went with the massive turkey JM came up with only JM knows.

You also have to think from an investor. If they invest $100m to buy Condor and $100m to build the mine then in 18 months they can easily start to extract $100m cash within 12 months from production and forward sell gold for the other $100m so theoretically zero cost in a very short space of time. The market cap could be £250m so an investor could then sell on Condor for a £250m price tag after all costs extracted. Its a highly attractive proposition and really i sense it is not lost on JM who is no mug. I just cant fathom anyone selling this project for less than $100m as jim would probably lose money given his 12 year stint and MC would walk away with a few million. if the project happened JM would make 10x more return so i am not sure JM is not looking that at ove a 36 month period. Certainly early January should be crucial as anyone interested will have showed their hand as its been now a month since the sale sign has gone up.

Its a shame all bods do not have a clawback clause to reverse salaries and other real financial penalties for over egging capabilities when we had 13 complex projects on the go and a small resource to deliver. While short-term we have badly suffered the medium term is far more positive as the sunk cost has created a global footprint and on a strong trajectory, but a shame even the MDC has taken so long. At £27m market cap that is not far off valuation of a few of the smaller projects operational so once we start ticking projects off we will move into a new motor. I did feel the last bod webinar showed some humility to face investors when they clearly knew things were not good. They also rapidly resolved some pretty big elephants in the room that could were sucking cash from the business. This is behind us and recent tweak to options is beneficial. I do think the bod should not overly benefit now from this low share price, given they largely created it but we move in 2023 on the cusp of being a siginificant growth company and that will be eventually rewarded. We just have to stop those dilutive placings and borrow or find quality investors as my only shock is how over last 12 months we have yet to find that big brother to be always at your side to fund the project as Eqtec should be able to operate without these constraints in this low carbon future that it has a serious part to play.

From shareholders perspective any positive news would be better to wait until start of January and any delay Rns before New Year. We will see but if no delay RNs incoming certainly tempting to find some coppers down the back of the sofa.

Investors have now parted with £3.3m so i hope some of these NDAs convert into offers. Since JM threw his toys out the pram we were heading onwards from 30p but now worth half of that. If we can get an RNS stating firm interest i hope we can recover some of the damage JM pushed upon the company just so he could lower his average. Any specifics from the egm would useful. We need to know when the sale process ends as it cant be indefinite.

Well we exist today at £26m market cap so we are practically deemed worthless by the market. If Harry does deliver the upside of converting our $90m of sweat equity into real capital is very attractive and then we will also have the capital clout to unlock Hawiah and JQ, which could be for loans but we will see. It is starting to feel like a 31st December update or even into the New Year if the deal could be tied up.