Member Info for Simms45

Some days i think i am betting on camels with Kefi :) The investor base bought into TK so until the Saudis notice the RNS and start in prior to the Saudi listing to replace the existing share base we are firmly in TK land. I am sure some Saudi investors will see this news and start to move some cash into Kefi as somewhere between the current $30m current market cap of Kefi and the similar miner who IPOed in Saudi for $1bn lies the answer. Given we have considerable projects in Saudi it does at least mean Kefi has credibility to do a listing and more a case of the probable listing requirements to jump through. I am sure someone can do the basic checks on what is needed but with Artan as majority investor i would imagine we tick a lot of boxes. Now lets get TK done and the rest is history as with a Saudi listing, TK financed and Hawiah and JQ moving to production it would be exciting times. TK seems so close with just government needed to sign off 20-2022 costs so we can put to credit. Could it happen this month?

Well that is excellent news. What we might start to see is savvy investors from Saudi buying into Kefi prior to such a listing but certainly makes complete sense to allow Kefi to access financial markets in Saudi with a new and enthusiastic investor base.

We need to remind ourselves the government were advised of the specific conditions and clarifications required to get this bank finance to credit signoff. It appears at time of RNS not all clarifications were completed but were “imminent” but driven by the Government process. Once this is done Kefi convenes a EGM at short notice to sign this off. Therefore credit committee sign off is now really now the final key step and then once we have this we have a short period for EGM and signing ceremony. Can bank credit report come back before end of February? I am not sure in all honesty but it feels closer than ever but had that same feeling for 18 months but i am now less concerned with equity investors and more with speed of MOM to clarify points needed before this can go to credit. Surely february has to start to anticipate this happening and in meantime updates on Hawiah and JQ would not go amiss.

Well we cant go much lower than £32m market cap for the asset we have. That is not even close to the investment expended to date. I think any news will have a positive impact if just to provide clarity. Are we selling or are there no bidders and as long as MC states we are cracking on with production then it will provide a decent uplift back to 30p where we were before Condor made this erratic decision that was badly timed and poorly received. Somehow i feel any news is good news as we can assume that mothballing Condor is not a realistic option and worse case scenario. Ultimately if we went down production MC would only need to stick around 18 months as i am sure a big miner will dive in prior to production At full market value. would be nice for some positive news in next few weeks.

i raised a short question to RB on the status of the share buy back and the importance of addressing the companies PR efforts. He actually responded and said he was heading to China soon and had not been in 3 years and to raise such matters with the board. Really given the huge disparity between company valuation of $9m and net assets value of just around $30m that excludes any value for the business itself shows just how far we have fallen. The company has lost all trust with shareholders and investors and to prove a different narrative need to create value for shareholders and address the most obvious basic problems, apart from keeping a close watch on the duo at the top. CNEL could have been considerably bigger than they are today with basic attention to their PR and marketing efforts and developing relations with investors to allow them to tap the markets for investment. Today any raise would dilute shares by 50% for any meaningful raise so given the duo would lose control of the company would not do this. it is so obvious what they need to do and it is painful to see great technolology not leveraged as should be the case.

i still think it is inconceivable JM and MC would go down this route if they already did not have some interest and the formal route would mean these potential buyers are told to put up or shut up. Companies like Calibre looks to have been playing games for years playing Condor along and then doing nothing hoping they would run out of steam. I hope the period is 2 months and if nothing comes close to the $100-$200m mark they crack on. Gold is flying high and mining investment is very strong on the back of gold ascendancy. The sanction concerns were appallingly timed but that appeared to be very very focused to a right hand man of Artega and to support some voters in the US. We know payback is 12 months or less so even a high net individual can loan at says 15% and within 12 months of production can pay back. I think the high speed of repayment is crucial as banks might not want to tie up money in Nic for long. MC did not spend 12 years of his life for a relatively low yearly salary to walk away with nothing. The mine has value and even JM is not going to just give it away, however much he might be throwing his toys out the pram he is not stupid. he is probably the idael person along with a few mates to throw in $100m for 15% interest as he has most to gain. Having your own gold mine in the future might be very beneficial to maintain his wealth.

Its certainly encouraging the road minister was previously supporting Kefi and would know Harry and will be very familiar with project. How soon we get the ministry to sign off the 2020-2022 Kefi expenditure that probably is another £10m of sweat equity to be converted will reduce our investment so worth waiting for. I suspect it was due to be signed off in December but previous minister caught with his hand on the till. Lets hope we can get this signed off together with anything else or i might be saying the same as manu as its certainly been painfully slow the last few years. Certainly feels positive the new minister has been batting for Kefi if what Harry has written is correct. also should be a Hawiah update due quite soon.

All very positive as insecured debt was all wiped out leaving Eqtec with a pretty sizeable stake in the project and a good proportion of the facility will be spent with Eqtec. While our equity does not appear exactly clear i understand it is a majority stake and once up and running can be refinanced and potentially sold off, although we need a smoothly operating project to demonstrate and kickstart the other projects that will come out of this. While its been a little painful ultimately we will end up better off. hoping for a update this week or next to help confirm we have a plan being delivered and not delayed.

Its very hard to find comparables but gold assets are trading poorly in line with wider stock market and a producing gold mine will be based more on its profit and gold production and SHG made a loss last year and saw production halve. I am sure future looks promising but every company is unique and the only advantage to Condor to look around at asset sale today is its a relatively clean purchase for a buyer with cash wasting away not earning any return. There is a lot of cash sitting around looking for productive resources and Condor does tick a lot of boxes but lets see if we get any update next week as we are nearly 2 months in and you might expect shareholders to receive some update once first deadlines are completed. Was it 31st Jan or will it be a later date. Will a white knight partner come in and take over the driving of Condor forward. Who knows but when you signal your looking to sell plenty will come to explore options and one might allow PIs to benefit from the upside.

We literally have around 5-10 tiny trades a day so good luck to anyone with insider information as it would stand out like a sore thumb. I suspect some update will be due next week so you more likely to take a view on how things are going. With gold rapidly climbing and momentum in mining sector looking very positive (calibre doubled shareprice recently from lows) MC should now be considering partnering and going towards production leaving us 50% equity or more and allow shareholders to reap longer term rewards. Just before we all expected financing we were 33p and now we are 50% down so one of the most specatacularly bad decisions at possibly the most crucial point in Condors 12 year existence. La India will be tumble weed before long and we will have a rusty mill in a shed somewhere. Condor needs to quickly rule in or out a asset sale asap or find the partner who has the balls to make this happen and ideally leave us some equity. Had we pulled finance in December we would have caught same wind as Calibre and possibly be towards 50p by now. I understand JM wanted to get his average down but he might be too short sighted to not see the bigger picture as 30% of a company worth £30m is hardly going to pay his electricity bill. He has backed Condor in worse times and at the trigger point where he could have made multiples on his investment he bottled it. Hoping for a positive outcome here but even if shareprice recovers to 30-40p on positive news it pails into the value of the company if we were heading towards production. Calibre are 10x more valuable than Condor and that is where we could be in 3 years.

That is a very impressive slide deck and can only lead to a lot more serious enquires. While that is great i also hope it opens doors to deep pocketed investors as while we might have 100s, maybe 1000s of global opportunities today i am sure we would be all a lot happier with baby steps and closing finance and commissioning projects. Certainly with a slide deck like that i think we will be not short of further sales opportunites. Come on a very big partner and agree to finance the next 10 plants from the pipeline. that is what we want to hear.

Over the last 6 years or so we generated around $30-40m in profits. My understanding is that used this profit to invest in new projects as our buyers pay in arrears. However i have never been able to see that this money is still accounted for as cash in bank is not high. Can anyone shed more light on this as given it is likely the last 12 months have been poor that should projects in pipeline have completed and paid money back to Cnel. Just would like to see out cumulated profits accounted for as i was expecting a share buy back to occur at these very low levels as we should have 3x more cash tied up in projects than current market cap. Given what has gone on you have to question basic details.

Good to hear from the horses mouth, so to speak. He seems to imply a very small amount of signing work needed and it is banks making sure everything is done correctly. my reading is that 2020-2022 investment by Kefi being recognised as part of the package has not been signed off but as Harry said this is box ticking now. How soon those boxes will be ticked is another matter but February does not sound impossible curveballs aside.

i think Kefi will start to see decent value once institutions start to buy into Kefi which should be between TK financing and production. There is 10p in this company as long as everything falls into place and gold stays above 1830 as that is around £250m valuation which seems quite low in the grander scheme of things for the level of production envisaged. At $2500 gold and then add in more gold and copper added to indicated and confirmation that Saudi assets are being spun out into separate listing on Saudi exchange then it could easily double again but a long long way to go but as soon as TK happens then everything else will be a lot more likely to run smoothly as Kefi i suspect will be able to bill TKGM for its services and generate income for the first time. Also incredibly encouraging is that we have now got all our historical investment up to 2020 cleared that was around $80m and now Kefi are waiting on 2020-2022 to be signed off that should be another $10m or so. It is worth waiting for that confirmation to help with our equity in the project. getting the investment up to 2020 was the tough one and really the investment since 2020 should be relatively straightforward. We have the cash from the last placing and we can borrow until financial close as long as it happens within the next few months and February does feel more likely.

This is based on a conservative gold price of $1830 so once you factor in gold at $2000 or even $2500 gold profits multiply along with NPV as margins become more comfortable. Our AISC is around $1000 per ounze for TK (far lower for JQ and Hawiah) so this is playing with $830 profit. However when it moves to $2000 an ounze this is more like $1000 profit and at $2500 its $1500. So a moderate rise in gold can double atttibutable profits to just TK. Obviously with JQ it will be far more. Just the small matter of closing TK and can start to see the path forward.

If we achieve half the NPV in coming year things would be looking up.

KEFI has an estimated NPV of 10.1p/share, based on the attributable values of the three projects, and a gold price of US$1,830/oz. The market is currently KEFI at just 8% of NPV“

If we have a £45m debt based on investment to date and we sell the asset for £45m all that happens is that we would pay no tax as the actual profit would be 0. if we sell for £100m and have accumulated debt of $45m our capital gain would be £55m and therefore we would pay capital gains on the profit less all other allowable expenses. i think the total costs to date are actually more so all the debt does is make sure we pay minimal tax. however i would still much rather as a PI see a takeover of the share price so we extract full value. T

Well investors know that if Harry was able to issue RNS Hawiah would be spun out in 1-2 years on Saudi the value to Kefi shareholders would be £100m+ and probably a lot more given comparable mining listings at similar stage of development. Throw in if EG finally pull their finger out and close TK we crystalise a $100m sweat to equity conversion and then focus on our value today of only £26m you have a 10x wind just from almost nothing. Add in real production NPVs into equation and you add considerable additional value. The caveat is execution and not cute RNSs. Most recent RNS laid it all bare and now Harry needs to pitch his tent outside the ministry and get whatever he needs and i have a feeling the first job of new MOM will be signing this off and go down very positively with the electorate able to say he created 10k jobs and largest export for country. What MOM would not like to come in and do that in first week and unblock the system holding back Ethiopia. Its pretty obvious that Tekele was robbing miners and so many would have not played ball and got put on the bottom of the pile. All those “pull licenses” leaks is now pretty obvious it was Tekele probably trying to extract a brown envelope of money from Kefi and causing Harry problems. We will see in time what has been going on but now we know Tekele was corrupt a lot more makes sense that has happened.

If you look at 60 day trend then $2000 gold could be a week away. Certainly would be a huge psyhological barrier to push through and hold and give a huge backwind to bidders as well as going ahead into production as sanctions are long forgotten and gold is no longer 1700. With $2000 gold our pay back on loan could be 9 months? . if it goes higher could be less. If bidders are not showing a decent valuation surely one would come in similar to Kodal and find investor to inject loan and take equity and bring in expertise. A decent miner has access to $100m to invest and could take 40% of Condor. A canny investor could invest $100m today and once operating in 18 months max could recoup full loan within 6-12 months of first pour or company could borrow to pay back sooner. Condor would have value of $250m in this scenario and partner could hold a decent stake of 40% worth $100m and then have at least 10 years extracting serious dividends or sell on stake. and here MC and Jim scrabbling around for a measly $100m+. Makes no sense if gold holds and investors pile into gold. it could be the biggest mistake of MC to have invested 12 years and walk away with very little in the big scheme of things. If they went to production he could be making £1m a year in total emoluments and dividends and holding a £10m+ stake. Big Jim would also prove his prowess and not look like a plonker investing for 12 years and walking away with little more than his initial investment. Really hope we conclude offers in next week as gold price boom and re-emerge of gold industry could be right around the corner.

Feels like Harry is clawing his way to the finish line with a 800lb Tukele on his back but we inching ever closer. “Imminent” has different interpretations but lets see if he secure this in the next month. The transformation of market value is so large i am happy to bide my time but lets hope Harry can bring conclusion to the financing and replacement of MOM minister brings swift support not requiring any brown envelopes. If Harry can close this financing Kefi will become an altogether different company. back to my porridge.