RE: Betting against the book.17 Mar 2026 06:58
I think it is healthy to have different views, I can just as easily discount ramps to trolls. It is up to each of us to make our own decisions based on information in front of us.
For my part, I enjoy the arguments put forward by RachT2 and I hope they continue, very few people in this board seem to put up a reasoned counter argument so they revert to character assassination.
I will be open with my views in preparation of similar. I had five figure investment in BlueJay and watched my investment lose 99% of its value while pump and dumpsters came in and pushed the price while the major shareholders sold their stakes so I too am a little sensitive to rampers. In hindsight I should have been a bit more hands on with my investment so I have to take some of the blame for being too rose coloured in my outlook.
The good news is I’ve long since recouped that money when with significant investment around 0.7p.
My strategy is clear, recoup all of my investment and let the profits ride on the drill.
Now, here’s why in my opinion we need to be mindful of ramping.
1) we havent found oil
2) 80% of new explorations don’t find oil
3) should the exploration well hit oil, we (GLND and 80M) will have to either farm in or fund another $50-100m appraisal wells
4) should the appraisal well prove successful then We will definitely need to farm out, so significant reduction to our 30% stake because the infrastructure costs will run into billions
5) oil won’t be extracted for sale for another 6-10years. Thats how long it will take to get to extraction as getting oil out of the ground is only one problem, you have to build out infrastructure to get the oil to the market.
Obviously it’s not all negative. The two selected drill sites, OPW-1 and OPW-6 represent potential 4B barrels (P10) with around 1.2B (P50). These two drill sites have been selected because they represent the greatest opportunity of success. OPW-1 has 870mb (P50) at five depths and should it show commercial oil the find will be extrapolated across the entire 13b potential, however, it is two simplistic to assume $100 barrel and subtract $25 costs. To calculate the value to for 80M multiply the potential (30%) of reserves by between $1-3 per barrel as this is how to value post exploration. So for 1B barrels would represent a value (based on $2) £450m, significant but worth around 6-7p.
The other thing to note is even if first drills don’t find commercial oil those exploration wells will provide more information that would likely lead to appraisal stage, extrapolated value maybe less but still representing great potential.
For the last part, if we drill in Sept and come January we hit oil then you will all tell me I was a troll lol. I once had a significant investment in Bahamas Petroleum (BPC) which was the next big thing some years ago. The exploration wells found nothing and my investment was worthless overnight so I like to think I’m learning to control my FOMO.
Best of luck all.