Member Info for SilverFoxd

I have Interactive Investor account. My PELI shares haven’t moved to GLND. Obviously will happen at some point but anyone seeing GLNd in their accounts?

Hi sonicboom

(Marks78 I purposely ignoring PELI contributions because MCAP was always estimated as $215m + PELI raise)

PIPE funding invest capital in return for discounted shares.

If current price is $8.23 and 8.6m shares are issued at $7 (raise $60m) then in a perfect market the mcap would remain same as pre-pipe (SP would move down to reflect the dilution), however, I believe your point is the SP would increase because the funding has reduced the uncertainty of funding the drills. If this interpretation incorrect then I agree, there would be a positive reaction to the SP and it may well move back to $215m mcap and beyond.

Sonicboom

I'm not following you logic on SP and MCAP.

The valuation of 70% of Jameson was calculated from the 21,500,000 shares allocated to Greenland (1.5m) and March GL (20m) using the implied price of $10.

If the opening price tomorrow is $8.23 then the MCAP of the Jameson valuation of GLND would be $177m.

Up until this point the market value has been implied - tomorrow we will see which way the wind blows. If MGL has found the drilling money at the back of the sofa then happy days we should see a rise.

I bought a few PELI shares to spread my risk, so hopefully they will rise but todays performance wasn't inspiring.

Thanks Sharepoint

I agree that there is money to be made pre-drill, and post drill is a binary bet to be considered later.

The pre-drill is harder to gauge because of the political interest in Greenland, but this can go both ways (Trump impeachment for example). Pre-drill I see the ceiling as 2p after that the risk reward becomes more difficult to justify, but as you say if interest takes hold with political headwind it’s possible to go beyond that.

Hi Art

This isn’t about Greenland, it is about frontier drills, I don’t believe I said Jameson was drilled.

For the record, Jameson Basin hasn’t been drilled, but west Greenland offshore has been drilled. Five drills, five dry wells. I’m sure someone thought that was nailed on aswell.

The post shows major successes that initially weren’t viewed that way.

Real-world examples where the first well(s) disappointed or were sub-commercial, but persistence led to major discoveries later.

⸻

Ghana – Jubilee Field (West Africa)

• Early wells in the basin (pre-2007) had:

• Shows of hydrocarbons

• Mixed / non-commercial results

• The basin wasn’t written off, but it wasn’t proven either

Then:

• Tullow Oil drilled Jubilee

• Result: major commercial discovery (~1+ billion barrels)

Key point:

• Earlier wells didn’t clearly prove a working commercial system

• But they hinted enough to keep exploring

• Once cracked → entire basin re-rated

Guyana – Liza Field

• Before 2015:

• Multiple wells drilled over decades

• Many were dry or non-commercial

• Basin considered high risk / frontier

Then:

• ExxonMobil drilled Liza-1

• Result: transformational discovery (billions of barrels)

Key point:

• wrong plays. One success unlocked the whole basin

Norway – Johan Sverdrup Field (more mature basin but still instructive)

• Initial wells in the area:

• Encountered hydrocarbons

• But were not seen as major commercial successes

• It took:

• Better understanding of reservoir extent

• Follow-up drilling

Result:

• One of the largest North Sea discoveries in decades

Brazil – Tupi Field (now Lula)

• Early exploration in pre-salt:

• Technically challenging

• Some wells inconclusive / not commercial

• High uncertainty on whether the system worked at scale

Then:

• Breakthrough discovery → massive reserves

Key point:

• Early wells didn’t fully validate the play. But enough signals kept exploration going

Great price to top up at 0.010186.

Thank RachT and Satnight - I understand.

- MarchGL are committed to fund first two wells as we all thought - they are contractually obliged and this is contingent to them receiving their 20m shares.

- How MarchGL get that funding is their concern, they aren't obliged to provide that information for combined balance sheet (though as Satnight said, it looks odd/concerning)

For 80m all good - maybe even better - GLND with less cash is in less favourable position to dictate terms.

Sonicboy

"It's been stated the CoS on this first well are over 50% maybe as much as 80% - see the video of Halibirton visiting the site."

ARCO spent $100m on geological surveys and 2D siesmic analysis. The detailed analysis conducted of months gave detailed breakdown of potential structures that indication of where to drill.

Are you saying Halibirton was able to disprove $100m of surveys and decades of analysis based on what they saw above ground ?

I watched the video some time ago, they were very excited, but I'm not sure they are in position to estimate CoS.

Satnight - MarchGl will provide funding for the two drills. I don't know what the PELI funding (86m) was going to be used for, maybe contingency if they needed to do third drill

1st drill - 20% CoS

2nd drill 10% CoS

Sorry, this one. I sent you the annex.

hTTps://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2037431/000182912625008407/pelicanacq_ex99-1.htm

Satnight - it is fully funded. Yes. But not risk free. 20% CoS. Why is this risk free ?

The same scenario we are playing out for Jameson has played hundreds of times in Frontier basins.

If you want to focus just on positives - go read about Guyana–Suriname Basin.

Discovery of the Liza Field by ExxonMobil (2015)

De-risked the entire basin. Since then: 30 discoveries, 11 billion barrels recoverable (estimates continue rising)

And to give balanced view Offshore Greenland (2010–2014 Campaign)

Cairn Energy spent hundreds of millions only to find oil and gas only to find it was uncommercial.

There are hundreds of examples, those Industry CoS are compiled from the results over decades, we have got better at interpreting results but CoS hasn't increased noticeably, maybe because there are less opportunities, I don't know. Everybody thinks there wife is the Beau of the ball. I'm not telling one this will fail or succeed, I'm just saying understand the risk and try not to overpay.

Hi Sharepoint

See hTTp://edgar.secdatabase.com/2177/182912626001442/filing-main.htm#annex_g

See page 27 - shows CoF and CoS for each OPW-1, OPW-6 and OP-9

"The Well CoS for the first well to be drilled in this frontier basin is estimated to be 20% which is very high for a frontier basin. What elevates the chance of success the opportunity to target multiple prospects with a single vertical well. Risked Mean Volumes of single wells are values that are only useful as a ranking measure within a portfolio in order to assess one opportunity against other opportunities as Risked Mean Volumes are not the equivalent of the expected outcomes. Prior to any wells being drilled the current geologic risk assessment has Permian Formations as the highest risk due to high structural and maturity risk. The Ravenfjeld source rocks may be overmature over much of the Jameson Land Basin, however this is not proven. Some theoretical basin modeling profiles indicate that Permian reservoirs may be more gas prone than oil prone, while other place the Permian carbonate reservoirs within the oil window."

Hi Sharepoint

Unfortunately, nobody can guarantee what is underground, this is why we do exploration wells and don't go directly to building out infrastructure. As I've said, PELI have given a Chance of Success for first well at 20%.

Hi CB

I've already stated how impressed I am with RP, I have watched all his presentations and believe he is first class operator, but I've also stated he isn't working for interest of 80M though the two are aligned. His CV maybe impressive but unless he has skills to create oil then I prefer to make my investments based on likelihood of success. I believe there is likelihood that SP will rise as we get close to drill, after that nobody can predict, no matter how impressive your CV is.

If I work on the assumption that 80M will dispose of its 30% of its stake, post exploration wells (OPW-1 and OPW-2) then I would have two questions.

i) what will the SP be pre-drill

ii) what are post drill outcomes

To get to pre-drill valuation, I need to understand best possible post drill.

For simplicity, I will discount any news from other assets.

Post Drill - Potential of 3.9bb for two drills. Four scenarios

1) No commercial oil - SP will likely fall to below 0.3p because for further drills either 80M would need to give up 25% of Jameson or find $8m (30% of costs) to help fund drill of OPW-9

2) Not commercial / but potential - SP will fall, then possible recovery as 80M would receive buy-out but not substantial - anything from $10-30m depending on potential. Extra 0.5p on SP.

3) Commercial discovery - not enough to justify development, but enough to move to appraisal. SP rise would likely rise based on two things.

3.1 recoverable amounts of two wells

3.2 Uplift of unexplored basin

Let’s say potential to recover 500m barrels using industry formula ($1-3 per barrel) would give valuation of 80M 30% approx £225m. The remaining basin not explored doesn't get same treatment, but would get a slight uplift in valuation, let’s say additional $130m. Round that up to £325m or 6.5p.

4) Huge basin discovered of recoverable oil - Let’s say 2B recoverable, plus extrapolate the rest of basin. Industry standard would be to value this more highly. Let’s say 2B recoverable, 600m for 80m at sale price $6 barrel = £3.2B valuation or £0.65p

Now let’s look at likelihood of each scenario based on industry analysis of frontier basins

1) 60-75%

2) 20-30%

3) 5-10%

4) 1-3%

By nature, we are optimistic and hopeful, - we hope for 4 but are happy to accept 3 – both unlikely but based on above. PELI rated OPW-1 CoS at 20% and OPW-6 at 10%. FYI

IMO the price isn’t going to go anywhere near (3) pre-drill.

I believe, with a good wind, some ramping up to drilling, and favourable markets, maximum 2p pre-drill. After that, it’s a lottery.

Punter

I have asked nicely for you to act respectfully with the other posters on this site. We all have a difference of opinion, please respect this. Your belittling posts are not acceptable and I advise all posters regardless of

bullish or bearish outlook to report these posts.

Punter

I just don’t understand why you have to be so rude to anyone (boomtree) who has a differing opinion to yourself.

There is no harm in just disagreeing with his point and stating your own.

This is a forum to debate the pros and cons of this stock. It’s not a fan club.

Stop attacking people because you don’t like what they say. Debate the argument, not attack the publisher.

A stock will arrive at its true value regardless of what is said here, if people pump the price then there maybe a short term spike but the shorter will push it back to value, the same is said for trolls, if it causes people to sell then someone else will see value and buy it.

Maybe we could just debate the point people raise with maturity.