Member Info for Silverblade

It would have been strange for the company not to receive some positive momentum in the run up to its results next week - its been massacred of late linked to a number of issues highlighted recently - despite the run of positive news events from the company. IMO our current value no longer reflects the growth opportunity the company has laid out so I'm hoping for a very positive update next week. Just out of interest Scooby - what was the starting point of your bowl - Dec 2021 - quite a retracement all the way down to c.45p? SB

No worries donmac - wasn't having a shot at the messenger - just hadn't seen any notifications which the longer time passes the more our mind's wander as to what's going on.....if there's a date on nasdaq good. SB

Not so sure about results next week - normal practice is for an RNS advising the release date and I haven't seen one as of yet? Good review on 'shorts world' ShearC - the only positive I can take out of the current share price situation is that eventually Millennium and Armistice will need to buy back 1.3m shares in order to close their positions - and with 50%+ of our stock likely held by II's there is not exactly a large amount of liquidity so we could see quite a fast rise - based on the assumption we get a positive update from the company dealing with all the issues which have resulted in the current sentiment capitulation in the near future, here's hoping....SB

Millennium continue to turn the screw - increased their short again on Tuesday to 1.31% - and unfortunately because there is such low volume/liquidity in our shares that continued short selling drives the price lower and lower. In the last six weeks Millennium have increased their position by 600K shares - effectively selling 100K shares a week - and in doing so have reduced the market cap by 50% from c.£350m to c.£180m. In order to exit their position they would need to buy c.1m shares - but as it stands they appear to see no need to close out - lack of material updates from renx not helping. They are likely working in tandem with Armistice who have a further 0.51% short in the company. SB

Agreed ShearC in relation to annual accounts - I just wondered if the same no buy rule for exec directors applied to quarterly/half year reporting - probably from the sound of it. SB

Lets try and finish today with a blue colour. Possible we reached the low point yesterday. Millennium last increased their short position on 14th March to 1.25% - so let's hope the next update is a reduction which would create some positivity and help to reduce the current fear factor. Other point to note - we have not seen any director share purchases since late 2021 - and given where we are I would have expected a show of support - unless directors are privy to market sensitive information (don't think this includes a closed period as we are only due a half year report) in which case any trading would be precluded. Still no RNS on Q2 and H1 2022 results announcement I can see. SB

Spot on Hawker - its indiscriminate to say the least - and early phase bio has been especially hammered. Certainly agree on the points which require management updates - I had not seen the 24th March date mentioned for results so that's helpful. SB

Agree with all your thoughts guys. Trying to see though the current position - we had $54m cash in sept '21 with a Q1 expense of $12m. The $12m Q1 expense had some one off costs (R+D, share based compensation payments for options) - so its likely our Q2 (to Dec 21) expenses will be slightly lower than Q1 ($11m?) with an increase in revenue (say 100 tests a week at $950 - 100% increase from Q1 - but still way below 300 a week target) - then we entered 2022 with c.$44m cash. Moving into Q3 (to March 22) we should start to see more income from Sinai and other partnerships coming on stream - and clearly the scale and timing of this income is critical to the current predicament. We certainly have enough cash to see us through Q3 and Q4 - and into 2023 financial year. But it is very unlikely our income will come anywhere near our costs for the next wo years - although in reality we only need to process 45,000 tests pa to breakeven on current reimbursement - with the company already confirming Sinai is looking at 10,000 pa. Doesn't help the current market fear but helps me sleep 'slightly' better at night....SB

Unfortunately its probably not so crazy - the market knows something is a) currently happening in the background or b) required to happen - and that's why a short trading position has been taken against the company. Uncertainty = fear = investors exiting = price crash. SB

We have had a run of interesting RNS releases in the last two months covering new senior appointments, attendance at various healthcare conference, new partnerships, positive clinical trial data and national US programme platform launches. Despite that - in the last two months we have lost £250m in market value alone. We are now worth c. 20% of our year high. The current rout (Ukraine aside) is likely linked to the delay in the publication of our results, a short position in the US driven by a general downgrade in the biotech market post covid_19, uncertainty on 12 month cash funding and the implication we need to raise funds which in the current market could be both tricky and expensive in dilution terms, and finally the FDA approval issue which would go a long way to reassure the market on the viability of our core product. Bit of a perfect s**t storm - the next RNS needs to focus on these core issue imo. SB

overlook - I expect we will next hear from the company in early April to hopefully confirm the full escrow has been released together with an update on where it stands in relation to paying its tax and adviser fees and a potential timetable for the final return. Our shareholdings remain recorded in Crest - I can still see my holding in my accounts - just with zero value! SB

This is the largest element of a c.$10m investment in our contract manufacturing business to support existing client base and develop new relationships. This investment is due to come online in 2023; and in full operation by 2024 is scheduled to deliver $6m revenue pa alone - with the overall fermentation business exceeding $10m revenue pa from its current $1m position. SB

Reassuring and supportive update from the CEO of Nordalk on current events - confirming the company's trading position in relation to countries impacted by the conflict. SB

https://twitter.com/arregius/status/1499669716775968770?s=21

£200k shares sold - best part of £50m wiped off market cap. Crazy times. SB

It would appear so jimmy! Although funds of this nature do have some price fluctuation - they are generally shielded from wider market chaos as a result of their largely recurring revenue, cash flows and quite frankly exceptional yield - with dividend cover the only issue which rears its head here. Not many shares up 10% in the last month.....SB

If we look on the bright side - as a 'buy and build' business there are probably opportunities in the market at present where price expectations will be lower than 12 months ago; main downside is any fund raising (placings, rights issue) we do will be based on our own lower share price. Good to talk guys - appreciate your thoughts - lets hope we hear from max and guys soon. SB

PAGE4 - you now own shares in a private company (with no option to trade your holding) which is currently winding down its operations, paying tax and adviser fees and is waiting on the repayment of $12m in escrow from Godaddy expected early next month. Whatever cash is left post those events will be distributed to remaining shareholders - the last estimate was 10.4p per share available for a final distribution later this year (or possibly sooner) - based on your holding at the point the shares were cancelled on AIM but remain recorded in the Crest system. The only bit I'm not sure about is how the company will communicate going forward (could possibly still use RNS) and how it physically intends to distribute its remaining funds. SB

Dartron - Nordalk would be the only business operation within the group with any direct exposure to current world events. We not not appear to have any quarrying operations from what I can find out but we do have sales offices in both Russia and Ukraine - however the latest information for those indicates less than 2% of sales ae made in those countries. A further 20% of Nordalk sales are made between the Baltics, Germany and Poland - the latter includes quarrying operations.
Blackrock are hedging their position - no surprise there.
One of our closest peers - Breedon - have been similarly hit over the last 6 months - full year 2022 should see us at roughly 50% of breedon revenue, 80% of EBITDA yet we are valued at less than 40% of their market cap (I have not looked at comparable debt so that could account for some of the difference). SB

Might just be me but I would have expected to see a full year 2021 trading update by now. For all the great progress made in 2021 all the shareholder value created in the last 12 months has been wiped out. For a business with our turnover and EBITDA growth projections we seem to be getting adversely hit in the market. Interesting to see if there is something up in the background impacting on sentiment here. SB

Don't disagree chique - sometimes its better to wait for a clear signal that the down trend is over before committing more funds. I think the business has used the cash uplift from its contract manufacturing business wisely - strategic capital investment in capacity to drive organic growth and market acquisitions funded using company paper. I would be surprised if there are no further strategic moves this year - our new CFO has a track record of delivering growth and this was likely a key attribute in his appointment. SB