Member Info for Silverblade

Great initiative by the management team to host this visit. I wonder if Peel were also in attendance. Liberium price is a 60% upside from here! I think the H1 2022 results in august will be a major catalyst here - and would not be surprised if there are further acquisitions prior to that. SB

Confirmation that company fund raising was completed is good news - and helps alleviate short/medium term questions on cash burn. Good also to see strong participation from directors in the share issue.

Bad news is that Millennium have increased their short again this week - up to 1.51% - taking total declared shorts above 2%. Their continued short selling in a low volume market continues to have a devastating impact on value. Who knows if they have a target in mind - or are just letting their algos do the work. Until they cease - or there is a a blockbuster commercial announcement - they remain in charge of the price here. Not great for anyone invested here. SB

The only qualification I noted in relation to the convertible bonds being issued is the requirement for the equity fundraise to be in place - which all looked to progressing fine given the commitment from existing core investors to take up c.1.6m of the 2.2m new ordinary shares. There may a hold up in issuing ADS - but I agree it would be good to get this out of way and focus on the milestones we anticipate (and management have indicated) will be achieved this year. SB

There are most certainly institutional shareholders who sit below the 3% radar - so our total II holding is likely somewhere in the c.60-65% range. I think the downer on the business which resulted both from the referenced covid business decline and the price at which the buyback was established is way OTT. The building blocks in place to grow the business are there - in the meantime the company will still continue to benefit from albeit reduced covid revenue and has shown to be using that benefit wisely in its investments. The current price looks very attractive imo. SB

Would be good to get confirmation $30m funding is now in place. I’m hoping yesterdays hammering was not in anticipation of a problem. Equity funding is now at a decent premium to current share price - and 5.5% coupon on bonds seems a good deal in current market. SB

grippa - this is lifted from the results.

Total revenue up 25% to £81.8m (2020: £65.3m)
- Core business revenues up 14% to £42.1m (2020: £37.1m) including Point-of-Care- up 18% to £27.0m; Central Laboratory- up 7% to £13.1m; and Life Sciences- up 3% to £2.0m
- Contract Manufacturing- up 38% to £36.3m, driven by COVID sample collection kits manufacture

So an expected decline in covid test kits will reduce revenue - company appears to be indicating this will start impacting Q2 2022. To offset that (which was a one off unexpected bonus in the first place) - company is growing its core business revenue; investing in its fermentation business (targeting a conservative $10m additional revenue by 2024) which sits in its life sciences business (£2m revenue 2021); and finally growing ADL Health in new diagnostic testing services outwith covid.

So yes - very likely revenue will decline next couple of years - but there is a clear plan for growth using the positive cash flow from the last 18 months to invest in production and acquisitions. I like the plan - although still not a fan of how the buyback was arranged which imo resulted in an unnecessary loss of value here . SB

Good points vig - thanks for sharing your thoughts. I've got a decent holding here bought pre recent decline - so not great - but I am hopeful value will return here over next 6-12 months. In basic terms - the market has reset the company's valuation to its 2019 levels with an uplift for decent growth in its core business. Key to unlocking future value as you note is the fermentation business and non covid testing - and the company has been clear on its strategy for both including financing. A bit of director buying at these levels and higher would provide some further comfort. SB

Good point to raise vig - the response to me doesn't make any sense. Would be interested to see if you get a further response. The guys at ADL must be wondering what happened to their deal - taking an all share purchase at double the current share price looks like a very costly bit of business. Their earn out provisions were capped at a huge number - will be very interesting to see how they perform in year one which triggers the first tranche of earn out provisions. SB

Good spot overlook! Escrow should be with us tomorrow - hopefully we get some confirmation from company which includes we have paid all our tax obligations as well - closer and closer to final payout. SB

Chelsea

Mike Salter, Chief Executive Officer, and Marc Davies, Chief Financial Officer, will be hosting a live online presentation relating to the final results via the Investor Meet Company platform at 4.30 pm on Tuesday 29 March 2022. The presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders.

Investors can sign up to Investor Meet Company for free and register for the presentation here: https://www.investormeetcompany.com/ekf-diagnostics-holdings-plc/register-investor

Thanks for posting this Italian - Simon sums up the current position well - 2022 is on track for another step change year in terms of scale and profitability. Market undervaluing a highly cash generative, growing and diversified business. But not alone in that position. SB

Cheers Vig - will be interesting to see if the company reports any share purchases made this morning/today. Cant imagine II's will be overly happy with todays events so far. I hope the investor call is helpful - I cant make it unfortunately but I think there is a replay function. No idea what Singers are playing at - total waste of time - and again not helpful in the current context. This is a core bio-tech holding of Christopher Mills (OIG and NAS) alongside CIR and RENX - and its been a shocking six months for all three in market valuation. SB

Great year in 2021 - and good progress to create growth offsetting decline in covid testing. 2024 mentioned a few times - coincides with new fermentation operations at south bend fully operational and a planned increase in non covid diagnostic testing including ADL which should add decent revenue moving forward. Lots of cash, lots of cash generation, few decent investments which will grow in time. Buyback intent was great - but to declare a sum of money - £4m, and a total number of shares which can be purchased - 9m - and its little wonder we start the day at 45p given that's the implied price the business places on its shares. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. SB

Looks like the building sector is back under review - if as expected the BoE continues to increase interest rates through 2022 to try and curb inflation - there are growing risks that global economies will struggle as we emerge from a period ultra low financing and large scale cash liquidity courtesy of central banks. It is disappointing to see SRC head back to its 12 month low after a strong set of results with much optimism for the next period of growth - however a buy to build business may be more constrained moving forward given the higher costs of capital - offset to some extent by our own growing positive cash flow available for investment. Companies with large piles of debt which need refinanced in a higher interest rate environment will need to tread carefully - not that SRC is in that bracket at the moment imo. SB

We will need to wait and see where millennium go next - but agreed lets hope they start to exit their position - and others follow suit. Jatw - not sure what your 6 week reference is? As it stands we have enough cash to last us Q3 and Q4 2022; and Q1 and Q2 2023 ie until the end of this year - and that assumes pretty much zero income which is highly unlikely. So no need for any panic buttons at the moment.
The timing of the Q2 and H1 2022 results are interesting - essentially coincides with the end of of Q3 trading - so the company will have full visibility on the acceleration of its testing run rate based on two quarters performance data - and the income generated v costs. Perhaps this was the reason for the delay in reporting. The conference call topics will be closely observed - strategy, partnerships and reimbursement - hopefully linking back to the milestone targets for this year. SB

Millennium sniffed an initial opportunity with a general bio sector bear market on early growth stocks and algorithms probably did the rest. They could get caught on the way up - the old short squeeze.

Good points about the previous team and exits - I think that was always the medium term plan here. One of the issues no doubt front and centre at HQ is the the cost of capital in the current market/shareholder dilution v equity investment/control issues v acquisition. The current market value is not likely to have gone unnoticed by players in this space - if we genuinely have the data to support a market leading product which could deliver the types of healthcare savings on record - then bigger sharks may be circling. We already have an established partnership with Davita with commercial risk sharing arrangements in place - it would not be unreasonable for both organisations to be considering something more formal - and Davita have the $$ to make that happen. Food for thought. SB

100% agree ingy - I think the results were in line with market expectations given the positive momentum in the last 9 months. Lots to look forward to here - cash on balance sheet, strong cash flow from operations and debt facility all available to grow the business. Lots of potential acquisitions reviewed - with Johnston's clearly the latest to pass the required diligence for purchase. With a growing business there are lots of one off and amortisation costs which skew the underlying performance downwards - but based on what we already know for this year the team are on track for a great 2022 - £100m EBITDA certainly achievable - with more to come. SB

Given the ongoing radio silence on anything material from RENX - it does look more and more likely some corporate activity is underway in the background - which could cover a number of issues relating to funding (rights issue, placing, pharma partner) or a major milestone secured - or possibly just a late publication of results. Millennium have not increased (or decreased) short position - so possibly believe price has been pushed as low as they can get it. Next RNS 'should' be interesting......SB

Nothing of any real note from a first pass. Pretty much just a one trick pony now - niox or bust! If the company is being fully transparent on its cost of sales and reached a point where further cost savings are now limited - the only route to a profitable business is to increase niox sales - with US and Asia the two key target markets. If we can maintain year to date sales growth of 20% (clinical focus which accounts for 85%+ of revenue), this would take us close to pre-pandemic sales level (£34m) for current year - and should deliver an actual trading profit - no point in a 68% gross margin when costs wipe all of that margin out. Good to have plenty of cash in back with future positive cash generation and beyond air royalties helping build that position. Now we are a clean and viable business I wonder if the team have had any enquiries. SB

The breedon results were strong - and I don't see any reason why we cannot post similarly positive trading. We should be in the region of £270m turnover for 2021; but more importantly is the forward guidance for 2022 where we now have a business looking to generate £500m turnover and more importantly a 20% EBITDA - which would be significantly ahead of breedons EBIT return (c.11%) and further implies a significant value discount to our larger peer. Lets see how 2021 panned out for a current direct comparison. SB