Member Info for Silverblade

No problem Italian. The only other issue kicking around in the background is Blackrock's 10m CFD holding - which they probably used as a hedge given their core long holding - and given what has occurred here over the last few months was a good play whether you agree with trading of that nature or not. Will be interesting to see if any of the CFD's have been closed out in the recent trades. ATB. SB

Just had a look - yesterday someone sold 8.375m shares in 6 trades over 100K at 73p; and today another 4m in two trades at 73p. All in all just under 1.9% of shares in circulation sold in last 24 hours. Blackrock reduced a bit last week - but nothing of this scale - so possibly they are reducing their position here. SB

Looks like the previous management team got a deal and exited the premises! Rightcast have 30+ employees, decent client base and adds another business to our precast group. Didn't notice the trades referred to yesterday Italian - current performance is not what we expected to see here - but same can be said for lots of companies/sectors. SB

Interesting potential hypothesis Vig! Only time will tell if there is a larger game at play here as has been alluded to previously. In the meantime - at least Mills/Harwood have tried to show some support for the business following the buy back disaster. Hopefully this signifies the end of the recent slump and we get a decent trading update as part of the AGM announcement later in May. SB

I will top trump you unhooked - I’m in ekf, Renx and cir - all following Mr Mills. And mmx which he was into as well - just about ok on the last - current disasters on the rest!! SB

£200m in lost shareholder value in 3 months - more than 50%. The current price even makes the buy back look like an ill timed judgement call which accelerated the price decline. SB

Despite broker views and the much heralded positioning of the business for growth - we are now price wise back to where we were 2 years ago pre pandemic hits. For a business with decent cash in bank, strong EBITDA and PBT, cash generating, some decent investments in other companies and in its own business lines and paying a 3% yield - it doesn't half feel like there is real market downer on the business. The bonuses paid out to senior and now departed managers last year based on creating shareholder value feels a bit raw. SB

Hawker - I spotted the same in my posts over last 24 hours. If you go back to 13th April there were 1m shares traded on that day - the day after millennium started to reduce to 1.47% from 1.52% on 12th April. Something is definitely up - just possibly they closed up on 13th through the 1m purchase and now sit under the 0.5% reporting threshold - but I cant definitely say this is the case. SB

Not as sorry as I am with my purchase price JTT!! But as I said I'm going to hold and might add if we start to see an uptrend and more importantly when we see evidence that testing revenue is accelerating quarter on quarter with a bit of scale. As for your observation Timelord - I am linking (perhaps not correctly) my observation that short positions appear to be in decline (there is evidence on the FCA's short position tracker to support this) and this should allow the price to move north in the near future given the clearly stated cash position of the business and the potential for some of the 'milestone' events to occur in the coming months. SB

Disappointing to see a poor price response to what appeared a strong trading update. Our peers - Breedon and CRH - are in a similar position (and also posted healthy updates) so clearly there is a lot of nervousness on how the sector will perform in the medium term on macro economy growth issues - and companies such as SRC who are in the 'buy to build' space need to raise money through equity and debt to fund acquisition - with the cost of debt increasing as we enter a new interest rate cycle. Free cash flow will become increasingly important to grow the business - so in some ways the timing of the nordalk acquisition and how it was funded in particular was a great bit of business - accepting the negative issues on trading in eastern Europe which as we know is limited but there is a risk of contagion. SB

Turnover slightly below my estimate - but period did include xmas trading period and with the addition of Johnston we should be in the region of £450/460m full year turnover. If we get anywhere near our EBITDA target of 20% (2021 - 18%) then we are in great shape. 2021 eps - 5.4p, targeting 6.7p in 2022. The focus will be on driving eps into financial year 2023 given the trigger levels for LTIP awards based on 2023 results with maximum vesting based on an 8 pence eps. SB

Cheers JTT - like you I do believe there is opportunity here - just a pity I was buying in Dec @ £6! Anyway I'm still holding and may dip in again if I see price moving north after its retreat to the south of late! Also like you - I would have thought short positions closing would have led to increased positivity here - which is the polar opposite of what happened since the fundraise. As I understand although we trade on two exchanges our total issued shares in circulation comprises 75 shares - 11m traded on Nasdaq as 5.5m ADS shares; and the remaining 64m on FTSE AIM. Any shorting needs to be declared on the primary listing exchange based on total shares in circulation. Even the LSE short position tracker here lists no current positions. Strange times. SB

The 24 month cash runway does provide some degree of reassurance - and the recent participation of both existing investors and our new non exec was good to see. Given the comments made in the H1 accounts on overheads reducing from one off ramp up costs - we are now probably burning through through cash at c.$10m+ per quarter. The rate of acceleration of Sinai testing in Q3 and Q4 will allow a degree forward planning - we are still nowhere near the 300 tests per week target - or indeed the 10,000 2022 target. That would provide a figure to use as a benchmark for similar health systems based on available testing populations - and for me are a lot more helpful than the company's claims around 'commercialisation'. As for shorts - I have looked at the FCA daily short positions website dated 22nd April and cannot see any current positions held by Millenium or Armistice. Milleniums last position was declared on 12th April - on 13th April there were more than 1m shares traded (ie equivalent to 90% of their full position and taking them below reporting requirements). Can't be 100% sure - but did they close out? SB

AGM on Tuesday 26th. Expect a trading update to be issued same day - which will hopefully provide a Q1 turnover number in the region of £125m imo and will allow some of the market pricing concerns to be allayed. Current price does not reflect all the great work in the last 24 months - and we remain well below the 85p placing price used to purchase nordalk let alone the highs reached later in 2021. SB

Cheers Mommur - good to chat. Great that you have held NAS for so long - fantastic 20 year performance. I have held OIG on and off for the last couple of years - I wished I had been a bit braver and got in a decade ago when I first started looking at Mills funds. It does surprise me that both NAS and OIG trade at such a discount to their NAV - c.25% - possibly reflecting the fact neither pays dividends, NAS holds a lot on unquoted investments and there are clear links between the two with large holdings in the stocks we are discussing here (RENX and EFK). I'm not a regular follower of NAS - but it does seem to have a bit of an issue in relation to its share buyback programme that the ongoing reduction in shares is increasing the % holding of its directors - who acting in concert control more than 30% of the company and require a waiver in order to avoid making an offer for the entire share capital - possibly taking advantage of current low valuation of certain stocks...! SB

Its been a good run of late jimmy - we are now valued at a 10% premium to our NAV which is much more aligned to our peer group. Still a 6% very healthy dividend on offer. Some of our investments (PFI) will also benefit from the current high levels of market inflation - unitary charge payments are RPI linked. SB

Mommur - whilst I would not disagree that Mr Mills has a great record at NAS, Harwood and Oryx - the three primary current bio tech stocks in these funds (Renx, ekf and cir) have between them lost almost £1b in value in the last six months - and he has big holdings in all three. I hope like you we have reached the low point here (and others - I also hold) - I will be very interested if we hear from Mr Mills on his thoughts for the sector - his support for Renx was evident in the fund raising - but frankly what choice did the core investors have given the bonds probably dictated a healthy equity injection. Atb SB

Hi JTT22. Hopefully good timing on your investment here. A lot of people seriously under water….

Agree 100% on your director purchases point - just note that the increased 13% holding is from our chairman - on behalf our three funds which he manages. Our CEO did not participate in latest financing round - but he does hold 2.75m shares already - so is clearly strongly incentivised to grow market value. SB

Millennium have reduced their short position - down to 1.47%; first downward movement and hopefully a sign that sentiment here is improving. Will be interesting to see speed of closure if this continues. Let’s also hope Q3 testing shows decent growth and the commercialisation of the business gathers pace. SB

I hope you are right Hawker - imo millennium have been in the right place to take advantage of both macro sector issues and company revenue progress not hitting targets - and I know we have limited info in this regard - but testing rates need to show some acceleration from c.50 per week. Their continued selling since Feb 22 has been brutal to witness - and I would agree what goes down can just as easy go up - but the worry for me remains if millennium continue to short. Let’s hope not - our market cap less cash is not much more than £100m. Who would have thought….SB