Member Info for Silverblade

I'm not sure about your comment on manipulation sa1986 - imo the share price merely reflects the risk adjusted market value of the business taking into consideration all the issues which are openly discussed here - primarily a business which has to date been unable to commercialise its core product and is about to run out of money to run its operations, coupled with a management team who seem unable to grasp the reality of the situation. SB

I guess for nothing else it will be interesting to see what gets discussed. We are caught in a daily trap between AIM and NASDAQ - the trend is down on both indices and both appear to be fuelling declines either side of the Atlantic. Not a great place to be. We’re caught in a trap…..SB

It appears every RNS issued by the company is greeted with despair. There is a material disconnect from shareholder expectation's to our management team. They cannot be oblivious to the current predicament - our CEO has had more than $25m wiped from his personal holdings - with our two key II's losing value in the hundreds of $$millions. And despite that, we get an announcement on an investor fireside chat. Ironic given the current cash burn.....bizarre attitude imo. SB

There have been quite a few large trades of this size for some time now Dartron - and I'm pretty sure as you have noted that Blackrock are right in the middle of this - although traders in different area of the same hedge fund are known to take differing positions based on their own company, sector and economic research - possible on this occasion they are working an short and long together. Also interesting that we have seen no new acquisitions since Johnston in January - reflecting both the macro economic position and imo the focus on the 12 month trading period to 31st Dec 2023. There are significant share awards due to the senior team based on achieving both a target eps (6p minimum up to 8p maximum - to secure 75% of share awards) with the remaining 25% linked to share price return from an 85p base - as at 31.12.2023. Given the threat of a recession, ongoing turbulence in European markets, scaling up of interest payments due under the term loan and energy - I would not be surprised to see a period of consolidation seeking to try and hit the 8eps target next year - max has 11m options alone. Quite frankly I would be more than happy if we got back to 85p per share as well. Lets see what else we can find out from the interims next week. SB

An honest question deserves an honest answer unhooked. On the subject of mills stocks in general - I am out of the OIG fund, but currently hold CIR (now renamed NIOX); EKF and RENX. Whilst NIOX and EKF have been hit hard over last 12 months - I am optimistic they will both be OK medium term and recently bought more EKF as I see upside and wanted to lower my average. On RENX - I saw the fund raise in March as a positive and took the opportunity to purchase and lower my average - sounds similar to your own trading. Like most - I rely on my own reviews of accounts, fund manager updates (Randy Barron and Christopher Mills) and presentations/comments from the management team itself. I was disappointed in the divergence on our cash burn commentary from MIlls (24 months) v Renx CFO (12 months) and clearly this together with the lack of updates on key reimbursement and regulatory outcomes expected in 2022 and shock at increasing costs has completely spooked the market. Against this - we have a business with what appears to be a highly innovative product , a a testing/laboratory infrastructure that seems well prepared to process orders, and 20 healthcare partnerships providing access to millions of potential patients....with strategic partnerships with pharma company's with treatment plans for referred patients all of which should save $$B's in future clinical costs. However - none of this matters a jot if customers do not buy our product - the commercial trap for early stage company's of any nature let alone bio-tech. I'm continuing to hold, but I have been here before and seen companies fail because they cannot access enough funding to see them through to breakeven - with the IP/assets sitting in those companies sold for a fraction of their perceived value. The next 6 months will be critical as to how the company progresses - as a stand alone entity with a diluted shareholder base but with a path to success based on growing revenue; or sold and incorporated into someone with the pockets to fund the ongoing losses. Don't know if that helps any. Good to chat. SB

Not a lot of sense in the markets at the moment spindok - and no real view as to when/if things will calm down. Glad to hear some one got out in profit. Latest RNS confirms Blackrock continuing to reduce - closing their CFD and long position. Food for thought - our nearest competitor is Breedon - and they have just posted interim results which show 3p eps and full year trading at upper end of expectations - so full year eps of 6p? SRC posed 3.6p eps for first half of 2022 - so 7p for full year. Breedon pay an interim and full year dividend, and have £200m net debt. SRC pay no dividend and had net debt of £164m last available data. Breedon market cap is £900m+. SRC is £300m.......SB

Sadly I think the market has decided where this will end up. Should get a final year 2022 update sometime in October - at which point we will have about c.$35m left in the bank - 2 or 3 quarters at most. SB

Following the recent trading update, Analyst Charlie Campbell at Liberum Capital, one of the group’s joint brokers, has a ‘Buy’ out on the shares, with a price objective of 130p.
" He considers that the shares look very cheap, with the market underestimating the group’s resilience in its cash flows, in its geographic diversity and end market exposure. His estimates are for sales to almost double from £272m to £510m this year, taking account of the recent major acquisitions. He sees pre-tax profits more than doubling from £26.8m to £59.0m, lifting earnings up from 5.0p to 6.6p per share. For the next two years his figures are for £528m then £545m in sales in 2023 and 2024 respectively with profits rising to £63.3m then £68.2m in those years, worth 7.1p then 7.7p per share in earnings. "
The trading update highlighted H1 EBITDA of £48m, ep of 3.6p on a £248m turnover. Despite that, the large sells remain.....depressing the share value to a bonkers valuation - but management options are linked to eps not share price so there is less incentive to move market value than we would wish - and II's are voting with their feet accordingly. SB

unhooked - I don't think there is any doubt that Renx have an innovative and potentially market leading product - but time is running out fast to commercialise that product. There is no evidence to support any meaningful sales beyond Sinai who have a vested interest and who appear to be paid for tests under the R+D programme. Looking back - the scale at which the company ramped up and the massive increase in overheads without any revenue was staggering - with market conditions not helping matters. Key issue - if we cannot evidence sales growth in Q1 and Q2 of fiscal year 2023 - it is difficult to see how further fund raising could be achieved to sustain the business. Hence the business update RNS which does at least appear to acknowledge the perilous position the business is in. We have a huge sales staff and cost base which at present appears to be achieving close to zero - acknowledging the medicare reimbursement issue is not helping. There is a material risk the business fails, is taken private or purchased for its future potential with a low ball offer from a major pharma business. Hence the constant selling. Its not over yet - but I suspect the news coming out of the company in the remainder of 2022 will be critical to survival. SB

Its a rout on Nasdaq - price is being driven into ground. Declining cash aside - no value left in business. Very difficult to take out what's left or accept we might lose the lot - all confidence in the business has gone. From Unicorn to Dodo? Incredible. SB

It would appear that Millennium have been reducing their short position from a high of 1.81% to under 0.5% according to the current UK AIM short tracker (looks like they hold .25%). Bad news is - someone else is taking a short position every two weeks for some time now in US nasdaq ADS shares - with the vast majority of those positions increasing up to c.900K shares. Also - our largest II - Gilder Gagnon Howe - have started to reduce their holding from 8.2% to 7.5% - they are our only declared II although lots beneath the declaration threshold. Interesting we have seen no new shares issued as part of the first convertible bond 5.5% coupon payment which was due in July 22 (unless there was a payment holiday OR the convertible bond investor has taken up its right to defer payments ). I am interested because the conversion price was set at $8.70 per ADS - or $4.35 per ordinary share - when the equivalent shares are currently trading at $2.50. There are mechanisms to reduce the conversion price to $7.25 but these clauses do not appear to kick in until month 12 earliest. SB

Never mind £1.50 or £1 Mommur - a year ago we were £10 a share!! All the talk of the 2022 milestones is coming to a head in the final 1/3 of the year - strategic partner deal, FDA approval, Medicare coverage, evidence of sales growth, cash balance, overhead reductions, future fund raising......the majority of these are now of critical importance if we are to see any recovery in market valuation - and in all reality the future of the business as a commercial venture in the current bio tech market. SB

Makes sense andypa - Medicare provides the reimbursement coverage and FDA more focused on regulatory approval/compliance/clinical recognition.

2021 actual testing revenue at $950 a pop was $0.4m (400 tests). 2022 anticipated to be $2.7m (2850 tests). If they can drive sales in the VA systems using the GSA contract; secure some private payer insurance business; get Medicare approval, continue Sinai testing (we have completed 3K out of initial 6K target), and get Utah, wake forest etc moving - surely we can increase our sales in Q1 2023 to 100+ a week; Q2 150; Q3 200; Q4 250? Realistically we need 1000+ a week to breakeven. SB

Don't think that's an unrealistic price expectation banker - frankly its massively disappointing to be at the current levels given the recent trading update. Interesting set of trades close of business yesterday - wonder if this is more Blackrock activity - who appear to be closing both long and short positions at the same time based on last holdings notification. SB

Looks like you might be right andypa - my reference point was the Company Overview presentation dated January 2022 which mentions under its 3 year investment highlights that we have both Medicare National Price Award at $950 and GSA Coverage Award at $950 - which are key to reimbursement. However - from what I can gather and as you noted - whilst we have the GSA approval, the position on Medicare is not concluded. There were two options to secure Medicare coverage/reimbursement. The first was as part of the Medicare Coverage of Innovative Technologies programme (MCIT) under its breakthrough device programme administered by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). This pathway was cancelled by the CMS in late 2021. The second route is to secure a local Medicare coverage determination - which I think links to the events schedule you listed and which aligns with the companies position that it has both a reimbursement code (0105U) and fee ($950) agreed with CMS - but is still awaiting confirmation from CMS that coverage has been approved and that local Medicare Administrative Contractors (MAC) can start to process tests based on the agreed Medicare reimbursement of $950. So as it stands we are not only waiting on the FDA De Novo marketing authorization; but equally or possibly more importantly - confirmation from CMS that we have secured the Medicare reimbursement - which was targeted for summer 2022 - which is a key issue holding back sales where the costs cannot presently be recouped. SB

You wouldn't happen to be in the market for a CFO job andypa.....100% agree with your conclusion - although I think we already have medicare at $950 a test - and presume that's the target figure for the private insurance market as well. SB

General overheads doubled from Q2 2022 ($5.5m) to Q3 2022 ($10.8m) - with the increase down to 'compensation, expenses and share based payments'. Presumably due to the large ramp up in staff, and pretty bold all things considered - and as you note perhaps savings are now being realised in the recently recruited team. We have a team of four in the New York markets - and sixteen - yes sixteen - on the VA account. The sales team is supported by seven medical liaison team members. 27 front end professionals with a unique market leading product capable of saving $b's from future clinical treatments........surely there needs to be some accountability on how those sales team are performing.
Without a credible increase in testing volumes and more detail on a financially robust business plan it is likely to prove very difficult to raise equity - bearing in mind that Mills and Sinai were the only institutions investing last time around. Or perhaps the business is hoping to conclude a deal with a strategic investment partner who can take a medium term view on returns. I also like to think the current market price reflects a reasonable level of expected dilution.....and hopefully not our ever decreasing cash balance. SB

Its all a bit painful at the moment Blue. The primary architect of our current predicament is the massive increase in operating costs in last three years with minimal impact of sales growth. From what I can gather we have gone from $11m in 2020; $33m in 2021; to $40m so far in 2022 with Q4 to come (Q3 was $14.5m) - with current revenue of c.$1m per quarter. So we are likely in the region of $53m/54m operating costs full year 2022. Trimming $12m sounds a good start - but you have to ask - what on earth are we spending $4m+ per month on? If you look at where we spend money - in 2022 alone so far we have spent $12m in R+D costs - these are the costs of our 'partnerships' with health systems including Sinai where Renx picks up the costs of clinical studies and licencing costs. In addition we now have convertible loan repayments to make - settled in cash or additional ADS shares. Have to agree with your comments on our financial management - and the market price for the business reflects this lack of confidence in addition to wider marco issues. SB

The issue of cash burn has not been helped by inconsistent reporting - quarterly increases when the company had indicated the opposite, 24 month runway, then 12 month......which apart from increasing overheads we have to assume is linked to the sales target failure - not so long ago Sinai alone was at 300 tests a week, then 10,000 pa......factor in that reduced income and no wonder we are left trying to second guess when more funds will be required. Raising cash in equity markets without FDA could be very painful. I like to think we have enough cash until mid 2023 - but that still means we have less than 12 months and that is not a good position to be in. That said - the previous reference to selling $50m ADS chunks on nasdaq can't have been on a whim....surely?

Iowa was news to me but the 8.1m Illinios deal was highlighted in the Q3 results unhooked. What is different is the specific reference to the private healthcare market in those territories in addition to the medicare coverage - so perhaps there is an indication of traction in private physician's looking to book tests based on the ongoing positive clinical proof of concept evidence. SB

We already knew that Illinois health providers were signed up to KIX with insurance coverage - perhaps the change in narrative here is that the company will focus its efforts on commercialising those markets which in basic terms means selling and processing tests. What is missing here are the sales targets themselves but at least there is an acceptance we should focus on driving sales with current systems rather than trying to expand our footprint at the expense of actually securing revenue. Clearly tied to this is the need to reduce cost in the meantime - and good to see progress being made here also. Will be good to get further clarity on this but might have to wait until FY 2022 results (October?) for an update. SB