Member Info for Silverblade

Just got a chance to read the results in detail and listen to some of the webcast. On first review this morning I did not expect to see the share price sitting at c.90p close of play - I expected a retraction following the medicare bump last week, not for the full year 2022 results which were as expected - but a lower than anticipated Q1 2023 revenue of $1m as has been noted here, the highest quarterly cost to date in Q4 2022 - almost $18m, and just over $41m left in the bank. Offsetting that - there is clearly a significant amount of 'nearly there' business - if we had matched Sinai's c.950 tests with others (instead of the 250) then we can start to see how the commercialisation model needs to work. As ever - time is not on the company's side. Reference to a cash runway into 2024 is misleading - I take if this refers to fiscal year 2024 - which starts in June 2023 - and there was a major caveat this is based on anticipated revenue growth. Reading between the lines you could conclude the company is banking on securing FDA/local medicare approval in Q3 2023 (Jan - March) based on the part conclusion of its real-world study programme which will hopefully align with the referred to increase in test volumes alongside the planned cost reductions to show a business into which investors are prepared to inject capital in the latter part of its 2023 fiscal year. Exciting and equally terrifying for those who are still gambling on McCullough actually pulling this off. SB

Quite a bit of activity post yesterdays announcement - including a broker note from investec which rates shares as a buy with a £3 price target (under review) and a generally optimistic commentary. They have estimated revenue of $2.9m 2022; $10m 2023; $24m 2024. Still considerable losses during those periods but more importantly those revenues would make a major difference to market sentiment imo - and ability to raise required funding. SB

Looks like US had a more positive reaction to this news / upcoming results / something else….should see some impact here in the morning. +40% on Nasdaq. SB

Big 6 weeks ahead unhooked - I wonder if the full year results will have any update on Q1 2023 given they will know how many tests were processed and under the latest RNS have been paid for - or whether we have to wait until early December. If we were c$1m per quarter 99% based on Sinai - what has the LGS Medicare, Illinois, Iowa private, VHA etc added? Critically important - what will be said about funding which is another large elephant in the room. Based on history Mondays results will have a reaction - it’s been all bad last 12 months - it’s either going to get worse if they cannot demonstrate increasing revenue, decreasing costs and the much heralded commercialisation. SB

Looks like a holding position has been achieved to allow local sign off rather than the full local coverage determination - and could be admin heavy to approve tests - but it will be interesting to see how many tests were processed under this scheme in Q1 2023 - and where the patient sample are coming from - New York is the processing lab and where the approvals are being signed off so is it regionally focused? Also - what happens if a test isn’t approved -you would think the approval to test would come first based a PCP assessment rather than carrying out a test and risk non payment - or is it implied that tests in general should be signed off because they would have met established criteria prior to being undertaken. Every little helps I guess. SB

6M shares traded at 50p in last three days. 8% of business sold/bought for £3m. GGH only non core shareholder who held this level - so a possible exit? Another RNS update in the waiting….. SB

Mmx has applied to dissolve its limited company status which is likely the final act in winding up its affairs. Based on timings I would expect this process to complete early Nov - with final payout/dividend soon thereafter. SB

Few biggish trades last couple of days - todays is a relative whopper. Look like buys / possibly in anticipation of forthcoming news over next 6 weeks - full year and Q1 and just maybe a Medicare approval. SB

We need local Medicare reimbursement approval - we have the agreed cost recovery per test - but don’t have the actual Medicare programme approval. That is likely to come before FDA and would be a positive allowing PCPs to operate under an agreed and approved healthcare programme targeting early stage DKD with appropriate interventions - this is where the pharmas step in with treatments. SB

Morning unhooked. Oh, how we wish our original investments here were merely a punt! If RENX was still an early-stage biotech with low overheads and a plan to suitably evidence its credentials and secure appropriate 'approvals' (Medicare and FDA) prior to launch then yes, I would see today's announcements as important milestones - and overall, its positive. The final presentation on cost -effectiveness in the full US general population should be a game changer in terms of uptake. But it's another RNS which does nothing to show we are a viable commercial operation. SB

I can't attend this week - anyone else going? For me - there needs to be a serious discussion about the future direction of travel here. Six years in - and no doubt a lot has been achieved. However - it's all changed. We are no longer in an ultra-low interest rate environment which facilitated our acquisition model; European economies are likely facing difficult conditions in infrastructure and housing spend; SRC has a significant debt pile linked to leverage and SONIA; and the market value/goodwill of the businesses acquired has been significantly written down by the market. In short - my questions would focus on - what's the plan to reduce the debt; at what point do you transition from a buy to build into an investor focused commercial business making returns - because the market needs clarity on what the future looks like. It's all fine and well for management to have great options linked to eps (some are share price related) but the complete destruction of value here on borrowed money and rights issues needs to addressed imo. SB

You are braver than most unhooked - in some ways I can understand your thought process - but for me I am increasingly convinced the end is nigh here. The financial scaling up of the business without any evidence the market is ready to buy its core product imo is complete corporate mismanagement. The role of both executive director and non-execs in forging ahead with a plan based on 'build it and they will come' mentality is staggering - what were they thinking? Even our largest shareholder cannot seem to come close to the test numbers it was predicting to buy - I've lost track of how many times 300 sales a week was touted from Sinai - we have not come close to 100 a week all in including other research projects. And now we are expected to believe that Illinois and Iowa are going to save the day - really? What happened to the VHA and the significant sales team embedded in that health system? I am sorry for sounding so negative - this whole investment has been deeply disappointing, and I fed up with the false dawns which are delivered in meaningless reports, studies and fireside chats. I expect an RNS this week announcing the full year results to be published the following week, with the Q1 2023 a month later. If there is no reference to increasing sales in the full year report as we move into fiscal year 2023, and little evidence of a material change to expenditure given the cash burn, I fear the worst. SB

Just popped in to see if anything was up here - poor timing as we touched a new 52 week price low - the reality is the business is now priced to fail. As much as I like listening to James McC on the world beating technology available to RENX, the potential 850m patient market and the $$$B's of savings available - the company has simply been unable to evidence any sales of its product out with its largest shareholder. We should get Q4 and full year 2022 results late October; and Q1 2023 early December. Unless anything changes prior to the full year results - I suspect there will be a note included highlighting a material risk to the company running out of cash H1 calendar year 2023. Perhaps we will be able to show some sales, perhaps the Medicare approval will come forward, perhaps we will partner with someone actually willing to buy our product, perhaps the biotech market will be seen as a positive investment again, perhaps some of the important milestones laid out at the start of the year will be delivered - and not the one about building a substantial sales team who currently appear unable to sell any test. Perhaps.......SB

Hawker - £35m H2 would be outstanding imo - let’s wait and see - it will come just think we might have to wait until 2023 to see that level of revenue. Agree with everything else - given we generated £45m revenue in 2019 and £12m EBITDA pre covid impact - our core business has been growing in low double digits for three years and looks set to increase into next two years. We will continue to see the benefit of a substantial portion of our revenue in $ v £. Would like to see some II or director purchases at this level to underpin and move away from 40p. As you say - would not be surprised if someone was not taking an interest in developments. ATB SB

Possibly not the most exciting set of results - and as usual greeted with selling - but all in all (share price aside) plenty to look forward to. I anticipate H2 will fall short of H1 in revenue and EDITDA as there was a continued benefit from covid in Q1 and the inventory sales - so could be looking at c.£30m. Life sciences looks like a real opportunity to establish a leading enzymes business in a growing market . Bit of negativity around cash locked up in Russia (plus the general exposure), some restructuring post covid in the manufacturing business, and the jury is still out on the ADL purchase imo - but I guess we paid little after the buy back - does not appear that the earn outs will be achieved on current performance. Good cash flow - and plenty of cash to invest in organic growth. Management are clearly focused on driving value - but this is not likely to materialise until 2023/2024. Looks good value at this price - 3% dividend in Dec on current share price. SB

Strange day - company announces a plan to engage with PIs and one our IIs offloads a shed load at the lowest price we have seen since Nordalk reverse deal. As you say will be interesting to see who’s coming in and who is exiting. Could be Rettiig - lock in expired in July? SB

Good post Dartron. Although you do wonder what price would be acceptable if a PE bid came in - the upside here does appear substantial once current risk weightings are reduced. SB

Quite incredible to think todays 100k sale which generated £60k would have been worth £1m this time last year. SB

Just to remind myself what on earth is happening here - I can confirm SRC has spent in excess of £550m in the last six years on its acquisition strategy. Despite an EBITDA approaching £100m a year, PBT of £60m, 7p eps, strong cash generation - the market value quite frankly is in free fall. Our last rights issue was at 85p; and our market value has declined by c.£450m. Yes blackrock are selling which doesn’t help matters - but there appears to be no case for investment beyond simple reporting and no effort from management to address the issue. Completely disconnected from reality - running a PLC requires shareholder accountability and for me this is completely lacking at present. SB

Nothing we were not previously aware of in the results - although the new lime production JV looks very interesting. However - all the positive aspects of the business - buy to build, European expansion, exposure to UK housing and infrastructure, low interest rate funding - all now come with a growing degree of risk into the next 12 months and beyond. Although these were only the interim accounts - I did not see any reference to the loss of shareholder value here and how the company plans to address this issue. No capital growth, no dividend, no share buybacks, no director purchases - little wonder how the share price has reacted. SB