Member Info for SickOfTheRatRace

Are you at the Vanitec meeting today Alfa?

Didn't we recently have a new face asking where the current broker targets were?

Regardless of whether you believe that broker targets make a difference, whether you believe a Proactive video with Fortune with 100 views makes a difference, whether you believe that posts on a forum make a difference, all that matters is that they do make a difference to some people. Not everyone invests in BMN by sticking a pin in the FT so anything and everything that may look meaningless has some meaning and influence over some people.

Thanks Daisan. I think my primary concern would be if a secondary JSE market was more reactionary, such as mass sell off during a strike without proper analysis like we have here. I worry that a situation like that would be used as an excuse by MMs to make the AIM shares more volatile than they have been previously.

Interested in any views of experience with JSE as I haven't held any shares there. Is the market generally orderly? In a situation like the recent strike do investors in SA generally keep calm or are there more cliffs and spikes likely going forward?

Would be a lovely way to top slice without selling any shares :)

If BMN can get someone to pay fair value for the project up front then given our experience with ATM I would personally prefer an outright sale of Lemur at this time. The BFS may change that of course once we get to see it.

Do you have a short open by any chance?

vauch excited as many of us are for dividends if the company needs capital to progress it's growth strategy then dividends should not take precedence over that. Given the choice between a self funded Mokopane or a dividend plus massive dilution to pay for Mokopane I will take the former (at this time).

The company obviously feel at present that there is room for both (perhaps with a little pressure from some of those "institutional investors") so until they release that guidance it is largely guesswork on our part.

They said H2 of which we are already over half way through, so not long to wait though!

The change to renewables is happening before our eyes with countries all around the world setting new records for renewable generation and closing down dirty plants. Dare I say that love them or loathe them Tesla is helping change public perception of electric power with vehicles that are finally starting to get to the mileage range of their combustion counterparts.

It just needs to happen a bit faster and storage is a big piece of the jigsaw.

However China needs to take a lead on this and work to urgently reverse a situation that saw them go on a proverbial coal bender in recent history.

Not sure that Lemur currently fits well with this.

vauch if we extrapolate Nicks figures from this morning then a future dividend of 5p or 10p is very achievable. At 1.1bn shares 5p would require £55m and 10p £110m. When we are talking £100m+ profit just for Vametco, plus Mokopane on stream, plus 10,000mtv upgrades, plus Bushveld Energy etc then 10p starts looking low end. Once investment for growth becomes less of an issue we could see a dividend that exceeds the share price today. I suspect there will be more than 1.1Bn shares in issue by this time though.

The company may first outline a capital framework. In my (more limited than others no doubt) experience of dividend paying stocks a typical policy could be between 10% and 40%. In this kind of scenario the exact dividend is then closely linked to company profits. Although some will of course prefer stability and a continually increasing dividend these are usually funded by high dividend cover ratios sometimes even exceeding actual profit. I am 100% sure that Fortune won't go down the road of >100% dividend cover, but well managed companies may keep some funds banked over time to smooth out temporary effects/dips in profit making the dividend more stable similar to how "with profits" saving schemes work.

The question will be whether initially the company will go straight for a ratio framework of % or start with an arbitrary figure they review each results period such as starting at 0.5p/1p and increasing in increments.

Of course, everything is guesswork at this stage but that's just a few ideas based on what other companies I have been invested in have done. However I don't think we will ever see the true potential of BMN dividends as we will be acquired by another entity - but it is nice to dream.

"H1 2018 mentioned reduced output due to poor Vanadium grades. Has this issue been addressed? I haven't seen any evidence of this yet."

It's in the RNS. They are aware and are taking steps to address it, that's all we need to know for now. We may get more information in Q3.

"So you have 2 weeks of strike action with no production, and poor grades causing lower output and revised production targets."

Poor grades was earlier in the year which they said they will address. No reason to disbelieve them.

Two weeks of strike action in Q3 - we don't know the effect of this if any. The company stated we will be informed of revised guidance (IF it needs to be revised) in the next update. What matters is sales and we have a production stockpile that should cover this period.

"I'm not at all surprised that the Market is waiting for Q3 results before getting all excited again. After Q3 results, I think we'll be back on track again, but until then, I'd be surprised if we get back to 30p."

If you think the market has ever been excited by BMN then you clearly haven't been here long enough. Growth is based on fundamentals not excitement or fantasist ramping.

Guess we have to wait to see if you are surprised or not.

"If you remove the price appreciation of Vanadium, and look at poor organic performance, the company is actually looks like it's under-performing. It's one thing to have all these agenda items, but at the end of the day, ongoing, reliable production output is going to determine our success. :-)"

Poor organic performance? I am not sure you are actually researched in this company. Even with the difficulties that BVL has experienced this year (which are by no means unique to us) the current production guidance is still up on 2017 and with the expansion programme will be further increased in 2019.

You do realise there is more to this company than Vametco don't you?

Fortune Mojapelo, Chief Executive of Bushveld, commented:

"We are delighted by the response from investors to this capital raise which was significantly oversubscribed. We are particularly pleased to welcome to the Company a consortium of highly experienced mining investors as well as several leading UK institutional investors who buy into and support our ambitions to build a significant low cost and integrated primary vanadium Company. The capital raise will allow us to improve our capital and corporate structure and enhance the Company's proximity to its underlying cash generating assets as we continue to develop our growth opportunities. We are grateful to the existing Bushveld shareholders who have continued to support the Company."

Selling 6 months later doesn't seem to fit this statement to be honest - particularly given the amount of shares they were allocated. I don't know how you can buy into and support the ambition to build a world class company and then start bailing soon after when the plan has barely started.

bassguy "mind you I wish I knew of BMN 12 month ago as I would be sitting on a many zero profit"

Don't worry it's all relative. If you believe that buying at 20p will eventually yield a share price of £2.70 then you will be in the same situation with lots of zeros when that happens as a LTH who bought at 2p and is at a share price of 27p.

I try not to beat myself up about other shares I have bought that were previously at rock bottom prices long before I saw them, all that matters is where is the best place for your money at a given time and if there is significant appreciation still to come.

bassguy that would require some fundamental changes at the stock exchange, not least an implementation of a system that actually tells people whether a trade is a buy or a sell.

It's crazy in 2018 with all the technology we have that the London Stock Exchange still has no requirement or notification as to whether a particular trade is a buy or sell.

You can only conclude that it is a collusion with market makers who do not see it in their best interests. Just screw the punters instead.

Alfa do you honestly see demand for Vanadium stabilising in the next two years? I am pretty sure VRFB commentary is that demand will increase until at least 2030 as more and more utilities place orders. Do they see the issue differently at Vanitec?

There isn't the supply to satisfy VRFB demand even in these embryonic years let alone when utilities and governments across the globe all realise that long term stable storage is essential to the end dream of 100% renewable energy.

Hopefully, assuming Fortune is able to discuss things other than coal.

It's this kind of discussion that will hopefully be cleared up once we get sight of that BE business plan. Of course we already know the desire is to create electrolyte and perhaps more medium term assemble VRFBs with local labour, the question is what exactly are we going to assemble. If the UET agreement continues does that mean that UET will just ship a bunch of parts rather than assemble the unit in a container and ship it direct. If that's the case then BE assumes a lot of risk with build quality and warranty - do the cost savings justify it? Is it more cost effective for UET to just supply containerised pre-built systems and we provide the electrolyte alongside and just provide local support as a UET reseller? These are the kind of questions I hope will be addressed in the business plan.

Taking the point regarding RED only being worth it's IP if due diligence shows that RED actually have some IP that is worth acquiring then it may indeed be UET who go on the acquisition path.

One question here is whether BE see UET as a long term partner or just as a means to an end. UET get us up and running with Eskom but the ultimate goal may be BE having it's own design and manufacturing facility - in which case some IP may come in useful either as a shortcut or a USP.

Either way if it's UET or RED then electrolyte will be required.

What do you think of a scenario where RED is a highly distressed asset that cannot obtain further backing. BMN take it over for a song, merge it with BE and Mikhail is CEO. The best parts of RED gen 3 hardware are then combined with UET as part of a partnership agreement, built at the new electrolyte factory assembly line in South Africa and then rolled out across the continent using BE electrolyte.

As of 10th September BMN held 51,995,342 shares in Afritin representing 10.0% of the issued capital.

BMN was previously diluted to 10% of Afritin.