Member Info for sicilian_kan

Agree entirely, good post.

To those who are part of the FDA conspiracy theory about non-US applications...

Why did they grant this one from an Oxford UK company earlier this year...I note too that this was lodged in Covid times, and granted in Covid times. Overall time to grant it was pretty much exactly a year, which takes us for Angle to roughly where we are now, so nothing unusual about the time taken at Angle to date...

Applicant: Oxehealth Limited, Magdalen Center North, The Oxford Science Park
Oxford, GB Ox4 4ga

Device Classification Name: Software For Optical Camera-Based Measurement Of Pulse Rate, Heart Rate, Breathing Rate, And/Or Respiratory Rate

De Novo Number DEN200019

Device Name Oxehealth Vital Signs

Date Received 03/27/2020

Decision Date 03/26/2021

Decision Granted (DENG)

Classification Advisory Committee Cardiovascular

It will happen, no need to worry. FWIW, I think GreenRoc the better proposition here. Holding Alba to hold Greenroc means two tiers of management to pay whereas holding GreenRoc outright is more efficient. And the GreenRoc market cap of £11.1m when sitting on a £5.12m gross raise, i.e. lots of cash in the vehicle to move it forwards, is a steal compared to others in that area.

Looks like the UK is planning to give booster jabs for some time: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/11/uk-orders-extra-covid-vaccines-for-autumn-2022-booster-campaign

Thanks Bermuda and agreed

If we are no longer going to target herd immunity or mass testing etc and to just let COVID run through the population in a less controlled way, coupled with sending public sector workers and others back to offices, the need for a variant independent vaccine becomes even greater. Such a strategy would accelerate both cases and new mutations. So an even greater need for Scancell and Covidity. Will also help Scancell’s clinical trial prove itself better.

Exact Sciences is $18bn market cap. Guardant is $11bn. Grail is going for $8bn without revenues.

Angle will be aiming to head towards those valuations. I see no reason why Angle should not be valued in the multiple billion dollars in the coming year or two. Bear in mind that every $1bn is £3.07 on the share price at the moment.

Hi nolupus. There is a difference between speculation and unfounded guesswork. To state "all the connexions with the CNRS seems to have been severed .." is just wrong. IMM have updated their website with the changes and you will see that the CNRS team are very much still in place. See https://www.immupharma.co.uk/our-team/

Nolupus I think you could be mistaken there.

Good news with the Board changes. As much as Dimitri contributed well, from the outset of Immupharma and in the original Lupuzor deal, he has been sidelined for 5 years or so.

It was Tim McCarthy who brought in Lanstead who funded most of the last Phase 3. It was Tim Franklin who brought in Avion who are funding the next Phase 3. Almost all the recent presentations have been done by these guys with Dimitri in the background.

IMM has also needed better NEDs for a number of reasons and we now have them.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see a new Chief Scientific Officer soon too.

All in my view very positive. We need the right people running the company.

The Pfizer BioNTech deal was done just before Phase 1 started.

The AZ Oxford deal was done the week after Phase 1 started

I can’t see them getting to the end of P1 and then saying let’s try and partner now, with all the delays that would incur (with speed essential to make the most of the opportunity) and without the partner having shaped the P2/3 in advance to get it running ASAP after P1

It would not surprise me to see a partnership in the next 1-12 weeks.

The RNS said "The FDA has advised that they do not require a formal face to face meeting and will provide their written response to Avion approximately by the end of July 2021." Approximately could have a little spillage of a few days. Not saying there will be.

Yes, there has been dilution nolupus, since the Avion agreement, but if approval is given to start Phase 3 we are also that much further down the line, which is an important counterweight. Looking at the very paltry market cap of £22m for where we might be in the coming couple of weeks, there is clearly a lot of upside that could rightly be accommodated within the spike.

The IMM share price went intraday to 32p less than two years ago, just on the Avion deal being signed, i.e. on the mere knowledge that P3 would be funded externally.

£22m market cap for a drug in P3 trials, with high US royalties and 100% of the ROW rights, and with no costs of trial to fund, plus a very good pipeline in addition, is ridiculously cheap. I think we will see 2x to 3.5x current price (or 15p-30p) on FDA approval being granted (a paltry £40m market cap gets us to around 15p, which must surely be hit) and in the longer term, before the trial results are out, we have the Life Sciences target of 100p to look forward to.

There is negativity on the share price here from people who were negative last time and who missed out on the rise up to 190p.

Lupuzor is exceedingly cheap to produce. Benlysta is exceedingly expensive to produce. Benlysta just could not afford to get involved in a price war with Lupuzor because it would lose hands down and Lupuzor is already targeting a much lower $20,000 cost per patient per year. What is much more likely is that the lupus market size will expand with a cheaper drug on the market. Insurers and health care providers will be much more likely to provide lupus drugs to patients if there are cheaper options on the market.

One other point, back in 2016, Benlysta was continuing to struggle with its launch and sold just £209m the previous calendar year. Contrast with now where the revenues for Benlysta are running at around $1bn per annum. The lupus market is much, much healthier now.

Hi nolupus, there was an enormous amount of scepticism at the time the last P3 started about the funding mechanism and the impact it might have on the share price given the need for such a large amount of money to fund the trial. I can take you to hundreds of posts on the subject. That is a completely different position to now where Avion is fully funding the P3 trial. It just is impossible to compare the two situations and to draw conclusions from them. The funding issues did have a massive effect on suppressing the share price at the time. Yes, Immupharma also had 100% of the US rights then, which is another reason not to compare.

Hi nolupus, you can't compare market caps for the start of this P3 to the market cap at the start of the last P3. In particular, last time around, IMM had to fund the Phase 3 themselves and that ongoing dilution (to the scale of a P3 trial) inevitably had a drag on the share price. Now Avion is funding the trial.

It is quite clear that the share price has been supported. The larger share holders have not allowed any sustained fall below 20p. The question is why are those with the cash taking this course of action. What is the benefit to them in supporting the share price. The only reason that I can think of is to keep the price up anticipating corporate action in the imminent future. Any thoughts?

hTTps://presentations.investormeetcompany.com/investor-meet-company/IMMUPHARMA-PLC-Annual-General-Meeting?bmid=ec8f1a971516