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ANS are paying $38m for 33% of Tulu Kapi

This values 100% of Tulu Kapi as $115m or £89m

ANS therefore value KEFI's 45% share at £40m as of today or 3.48p per share

3.48p is the logical next stop for the share price.

And this ignores the excellent Saudi project and values it at £0 and the upside as construction at Tulu Kapi develops.

Taking all into account 4p is a perfectly reasonable conservative price, building in lots of room for all the upside we are aware of in both Ethiopia and Saudi.

It does, but based on an extremely aggressive $ price per oz of gold. That's fine, it is possible that that might happen, but it is in no way probable.

5.5m oz at $100 / oz gets 3.18p for the share price.

Whilst medium and long term, the sp could justifiably be a lot higher than now:

1. GGP is currently valued at there being 8.5m oz of gold at $100 per oz in the ground.

2. Numis is currently expecting only 5.5m oz of gold at the moment.

3. GGP is therefore significantly overbought relative to 2020 drill / resource expectations.

Sorry, a typo in my calculations. Hawiah (which KEFI says they are bigger than) has more than 1.4m oz of gold equivalent:

Maths below:

$5652 (copper price / tonne) x 400,000 tonnes = $2,260,800,000.

$2,2260,800,000 / $1570 (gold price / oz) = 1,439,624 oz of gold

People are massively underestimating KEFI's Hawiah project in Saudi at the moment. I understand the focus, for the time being, on Ethiopia given the imminent monies coming in and start of construction, however it is important to realise that there is great value in Saudi already. Note the following from the last KEFI Saudi RNS:

"This drilling has already confirmed that Hawiah is a large VMS system that appears analogous to and larger than the Al Masane VMS mine in southern Saudi Arabia." and that Al Masane has "reported proven and probable reserves" of "400,000 tonnes contained copper-equivalent in situ"

400,000 tonnes of copper equivalent is equal to 1.27m oz of gold.

So we have been told that KEFI's Hawiah is already believed to be larger than 1.27m oz of gold. It also "remains entirely open at depth as well as to the north and south", has "Excellent continuity over the 4km" which "makes the Hawiah VMS mineralisation easy to drill out and ultimately to be amenable to straightforward underground mining", truly excellent grades of 2%-5% copper, and they have already commenced "the next phase of drilling which is likely to lead to an initial Mineral Resource estimate".

KEFI is already massively undervalued for its Ethiopian assets which are about to come to fruition. However, it is important to note as well that its Saudi assets are very quickly becoming great projects in their own right.

I expect a significant share price rise in the next few days / couple of weeks.

$100/oz is not too low - it is at the top end of most purchases. Figures of $200/oz bounded around here were not even achieved at Mariana, which had grades far in excess of GGP, such as 60m x 80g/t and at much shallower depths.

Personally, I think >$100/oz can be achieved given the Newcrest infrastructure, but that is merely speculative.

5.5m oz at $100/oz converted into £ * 30% share

= £127m for GGP's share at today's exchange rate.

£127m at 3,323,420,145 shares in issue is 3.8p / share, however 3.8p per share needs to be:
- reduced as it includes no discount for risk, the time it takes to realise the above, dilution to shares in interim if funds are raised etc., or the fact that this excludes exercise of warrants and options that will significantly reduce the return to shareholders;
- increased as it does not include the opportunity of having a larger resource, give any credit for other land holdings, or the possibility of a better return given the desperation of Newcrest.

In short, we are in my view undervalued medium term but fairly valued as of today.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/912064/numis-boosts-greatland-gold-target-price-by-50-following-recent-well-received-drilling-update-912064.html

One typo, should have said open to NW rather than NE.

My views on the drill holes. I'm going to start with the worst holes and end up with the best holes, so bear with me!

There were three abandoned holes. Two of those we knew about, the third we did not. See HAD024, HAD027 and HAD030.

There were two holes which we already had partial results for. HAD023 and HAD028.
- The extension on HAD023 was neither here nor there. It was ok. 124m x 1g/t at that depth, with the bulk of that coming from 16m x 3.3g/t is fine, but it is not going to set the world alight compared to existing drill holes.
- The extension on HAD028 was poor. All at 0.43g/t to 0.57g/t. At depths of 800m - 1400m, with no high grade zones, those grades can pretty much be ignored.

Three new holes had (in the context of Havieron) ok grades.
- HAD026 was all low grade at 0.2g/t to 0.59g/t with the exception of 63.8m x 2.3g/t and 54.5m x 1.3g/t. The former is very good. The latter is ok and is not really of any excitement at that depth.
- HAD032 was of low to medium grade 0.29g/t to 1.2g/t
- HAD035 had a great 110.5m x 1.8g/t (which is great, but in the context of Havieron is nothing special) and was otherwise of low grade 0.28g/t - 0.51g/t

There were two holes of stellar grades:
- HAD036 contained a truly exceptional 608 gram metres, with 73m x 3.2g/t being the highlight and 95.5m x 1.6 g/t being very good.
- HAD034 having the best grades with a truly exceptional 926 gram metres (I make this the 5th best hole at Havieron) with the highlights being 79m x 3.8g/t and 136m x 2.9g/t, both of which are exceptional in their own right.

The most exciting thing is the diagram on Figure 1 showing how all these drill results fit in. In short, from my amateur eyes, you will see why they are focusing on the North East. You will see a high grade zone ranging from 10.6m x 22g/t to 45.8 m x 6.8 g/t that they think is connected. HAD034 and HAD036 are part of that picture. They extend the boundaries a little south, but really they are infil drill holes stuck between HAD020 and HAD028, possibly HAD023 too. Both ends of this are thought to curve back towards the NE, but at different points. The question is how far does this high grade zone extend. The answer is we still do not know, but we can have more confidence in the model and the high grade zones found to date.

And that really is my conclusion from today's news. The high grade zones found are thought to be connected and the two truly brilliant drill holes are firming up that theory, testing the middle of the belt. The next area to test will be the extensions to the NE and obviously to do more infil drilling.

Clearly no one can state that there is 20m oz in Havieron at this point, let alone minable reserves of that sum. But let's see how far the extensions might go. I rule out no sums in terms of size at this point.

Havieron is outstanding as I've said before.

But everytime they raise funds to explore Firetower, they are (in reality) diluting our individual interests in Havieron.

Given the results that must be wrong. They have been looking at Firetower for over a decade. Nothing good has come out of that. They need to bin it.

What a load of ramping nonsense on here today about Firetower.

The results were pathetic. They should just bin Firetower which has done nothing but drain funds in over a decade of GGP exploration. Do you seriously think intervals such as 1m at 0.54g/t at 119m depth are anything other than worthless rubble?

Paddy - Cheers and Agreed

MattyBoy1965, you've forgotten the copper, which is the vast bulk of the deposit! My maths has 292m tonnes at 1.31% copper as the gold equivalent of 14.7m oz. Then add the 3.64m oz of gold to total around 18.3m oz gold equivalent.

Do correct me if wrong, my workings are below:

[292m tonnes *1.31% *$6097/oz = copper value, then divide by gold value of $1580 to calculate the gold ounces equivalent]

The RNS said that the subscription agreements were expected to be returned at the end of this month. If this is on time, the most probable date for an RNS confirming the same is this Thursday, 2nd January. An RNS today (which has not happened) or tomorrow is more likely to be a negative RNS with delay set out. No news is good news.

I'm expecting good news. After all these subscription agreements could have been sent out on many an occasion in the past year. The reason why they were sent out on 9 December 2019, is because KEFI had the green light from the Ethiopians to do so.

The warrants are worthless if the sp does not go over 2p.

If it does, we will all be happy.

*Correction, inferred resource.

Hi Paddy, yes I agree, the longer we leave this, the better for GGP shareholders. The later any buyout, the more money we will get. That said, we may not have a choice as to when the offer comes in. I think the earliest possible date would be once the initial indicated JORC resource is issued in H2 next year. Whatever happens, (a) it will be outside of our individual control; and (b) it will be at a higher share price than now.

Hi Paddy, it is impossible to predict whether it is a buyout for Havieron, Paterson or GGP. That will depend upon so many factors, such as timing, drill results etc. All that matters is that, whatever happens, it will be at a price significantly above the current share price.

P.S. That is my current average. I had a different one on the rise up from 1.25p (then average) to 2p+, where I traded and cashed out. This time I am holding without trading. The movements are too unpredicatable - who could have guessed the rise today for example. More importantly, the odds of Havieron being a mine are now in my view likely and not merely possible (the position last time).