Member Info for sicilian_kan

In around 4 weeks' time, Newcrest will be releasing their quarterly report which is expected to contain more Havieron drill results. We know they will have them as the last Havieron RNS two weeks ago stated "A further five holes are at various stages of progress (HAD015-019) and assay results are awaited".

The anticipation of these results will be bought into, in advance, and I would be astonished if the share price was not over 2p [around 2.5p] beforehand,

Those that are wise will be buying now sub 2p as there is a significant chance that we will never see that price again shortly.

No surprises that the share price rose today.

Not only were the Firetower results good, but more importantly there were many shareholders sitting out the FIretower results expecting them to be bad. Those shareholders have been buying back in.

Fully expecting the share price to continue rising and 2p to be broken in the coming days.

1) The Black Hills results today were disappointing. There were in reality, only 3 ok-ish holes out of 14. Even those were nothing to shout about. Low grade (0.5g/t) is fine for open pit mining if you have particularly wide intervals and if you have consistency. At present, Black Hills has yet to prove it can deliver on either. There really is nothing yet to sing about.

2) The good news is it doesn't matter! GGP is already undervalued based on Havieron alone. The other prospects remain potential bonuses as are the remaining drill holes.

In short, a fall today was only to be expected. I expect continued market uncertainty until the Firetower results are out of the way (whatever they might be). But the general trend from thereon will be up

Urbanracer good discussion - I think I am right but I can see the other side too.

JerseyCrew - your points about credibility and legal consequences are just plain wrong.

Bear in mind that shareholders here are quite jumpy. Only recently, people on here (not me) were selling in the 1.70s hoping to buy in cheaper on the off chance that BH and FT were bad or as NC's drill results were quarterly. Now many of those same shareholders are buying back in the 1.90s.

Small PIs don't like holding. They also get twitchy over small price movements. This cuts both ways.

Now imaging the following. How many shareholders here would refuse 4p today? More importantly, if a takeover bid was made and the price shot up in anticipation of its success, how many shareholders here would be willing to lose all that profit if the takeover bid failed? How many would prefer to lock in a substantial return.

I remember the Man Utd takeover by the Glazers. They got that deal home because the shareprice had takeover priced in as they tried to acquire 75%. If the takeover then didn't happen because not enough holders accepted, the share price would have gone down significantly and every holder not accepting the offer would have lost a lot of money (in the short to medium term). So of course, they got their 75% (and then 98%).

I think somewhere around 4p would do it at the moment and for NC that would be a steal.

Urbandancer, Newcrest won't care about GH. GH is just a former banker / mouthpiece for GGP and is very disposable for them. They care about only about feeding more ore into the Telfer plant. That lies in Havieron and in the wider Paterson area, which lies with GGP, in whole or (in future) in part.

Also, I don't get the point about losing forever GGP's exploration and development work. Newcrest can explore Patterson much quicker, with better resources and with better expertise than GGP.

I remember Centerra (2017 revenues of $2.1bn) farming into Oksut in Turkey, which was owned by Stratex. Centerra's drilling earned, 0%, then 50%, then 70%. Then Centerra bought out the residual 30%.

Importantly, it only took just over a year from the first blockbuster hole for the remaining 30% to be bought. Hole 45 hit 234.4m x 2.08 g/t gold from 42m depth. This was announced by RNS on 30 August 2011. On 12 December 2012, Centerra then bought the remaining 30% of the 1.05M oz resource for $20m + a later payment of $4.5m. This was all done before the mine was anywhere near being developed.

The price was $78/oz for an inferior project (not Tier 1, not the best mining jurisdiction, lowest level of JORC resource, offer for only the license not the company etc.). Centerra, like Newcrest, was also very keen for new projects at the time.

Anyhow, it just goes to show how quickly companies can move to buy out an interest when they see something good and when, like Newcrest, the company needs that opportunity for its own corporate purposes.

If Newcrest want to acquire GGP, they will have to do so quickly, for the following reasons:

1. Newcrest only has a first right of refusal over the Paterson project. They do NOT have a first right of refusal over GGP. Any other major, such as RIO, could come in and shaft Newcrest's rights to first refusal by simply buying GGP. Newcrest would then never have the opportunity to have first refusal. In short, if Newcrest wants GGP's Paterson project, they CANNOT rely upon their right of refusal, they must takeover GGP and do so before anyone else can.

2. GGP is currently cheap. As Havieron progresses and as GGP's other licenses are progressed, the takeover price will only rise and the shareholder base will only become stronger. It is better therefore to takeover GGP sooner rather than later.

I've done some calculations to rank the Havieron holes.

You will see from the data below that out of 14 holes drilled to date, today's holes were the 3rd, 4th and 5th best holes. They all beat 9 of the 11 holes drilled before today.

I have standard criteria of "gram metres" to rank the holes. I.e. grade x width.

Keith Barron, founded Aurelian Resources Inc, which was sold for $1.2bn in 2006. He knows what he is talking about. See his comments below on gram metres, which were from 2004, when the gold price was around $420/oz and major gold discoveries have massively tailed off since then too.

"As a rule-of-thumb many geos look at grammetres as to whether or not a drill result is interesting. Simply put, this is the grade multiplied by the width....An intersection of 10 gram-metres may or may not make it. An intersection of 50 gram-metres is pretty good; of 100 or 200 gram-metres is pretty gosh darn good, and anything higher becomes exceptional."

hTTp://www.straighttalkonmining.com/who-wants-to-be-a-billionaire/

Look now at the table below. You will see that each one of the three holes announced today vastly exceeded "exceptional" and as noted are some of Havieron's best holes.

I can only conclude that the market has not appreciated the significance of today's results. Note too Gervaise Heddle's interview today, where he emphasised the extensions to the mineralised zone demonstrated by these drill results . Gervaise said today that it was a surprise that they saw mineralisation extending to the west in HAD013. They saw this again in HAD014. These extensions are very significant. This is also in addition to positives such as Newcrest adding a 5th drill rig this month, with additional drill rig(s) scheduled to commence in the Q2 FY20. Plus the minimum spend will be completed this month, with drilling increasing significantly from hereon. I.e. Newcrest are clearly committing heavily now. Follow them, not keyboard warriors on here.

But I digress. You have already seen the points above. Hopefully the table below will add a fresh perspective:

HAD005 - 1,571 gram metres (exceptional)
HAD006 - 976 gram metres (exceptional)
HAD014 - 876 gram metres (exceptional, new today)
HAD013 - 627 gram metres (exceptional, new today)
HAD012 - 522 gram metres (exceptional, new today)
HAD001 - 395 gram meters (exceptional, note only drilled to 622m)
HAD011 - 309 gram metres (exceptional)
HAD008 - 231 gram metres (exceptional)
HAD007 - 125 gram metres (pretty gosh darn good)
HAD003 - 105 gram metres (pretty gosh darn good)
HAD009 - 86 gram meters (pretty good)
HAD004 - 27 gram metres
HAD002 - 19 gram metres
HAD010 - n/a

What we are seeing is, in my view, proof that Havieron will be a substantial mine. This is grossly undervalued.

[I used Newcrest's revised results and an average ratio for the copper conversion. Cobalt was ignored even though significant]

Plappers, you are speaking rubbish. GGP haven’t yet given away any equity in Havieron. They retain 100%. Only if Newcrest spend $20m in the required time period do they start to earn any equity in Havieron at all and they must spend vast amounts more to get the figures you are talking about.

Three points of note

1. Why the need to place before the Black Hills results?

2. Why is Black Hills not mentioned as a use of the net proceeds?

“The net proceeds will be used to advance key exploration targets, particularly in the Paterson region of Western Australia, with the initial focus on Scallywag and high priority targets recently identified at Paterson Range East.”

Conclusion = significant chance the Black Hills news is negative? Potential to go back to 1.5p if so.

3. Also the issuing of warrants at this stage is very weak. I had expected better from GGP and this will mean placing shares being sold into the market for a free carry in the warrants.

The several months being the time period that it will take for the placees to recover their shares and warrants. Somewhere between 4-8 months is realistic.

So, WSG got the £1m the day before SVS went bust. Very fortuitous!

The sp should now tick up. Those who bought in the placing through SVS are unable to trade their shares and warrants. They won't lose money if under the FSCS threshold and if they are above it should be a haircut not a significant loss.

But the point is, in short, that WSG have all the benefits now of the placing (£1m raised) with none of the disadvantages (placees selling into the market). This situation should last several months. Up to the company now to issue newsflow to exacerbate this situation to its advantage.

Thanks jd. Appreciated.

Ps I note an autocorrect typo from typing on my mobile. No solution in my first post should read no dilution.

P.S. You don’t just find in a void 275m at 4.77g/t gold and 0.61% copper (approximately 1,580 metre grams gold equivalent). You find it because there is a motherload of high quality gold down there. That is why Newcrest are involved.

The first drill campaign at Havieron was announced as started on 18 April 2018. The results of the first hole were announced on 25 June 2018. The results of all holes were announced on 4 July 2018. 2,438m were drilled taking 2.5 months from start to all results.

The second drill campaign was announced as started on 17 September 2018. The results of the first hole were announced on 19 November 2018. The results of all holes were announced on 5 February 2018. 4,228m were drilled taking 4.5 months from start to all results.

In this campaign, the drilling commenced on 22 May 2019. 10,000m are being drilled but with two rigs and with the speed of a major. Based on the above timelines, I would expect first drill hole results to be announced, if they choose to do that, the week after next. So we could see some price movement next week in anticipation and this may explain the perkiness of the share price in recent days. I would expect full drill results to be announced end Sept.

10,000m as you will see from the above, is considerably more than both the previous drill campaigns put together. This is therefore massive, very exciting and a potential game changer for GGP. If successful, the next Newcrest campaign will be even more massive, another 15,000m to 25,000m with 4 drill rigs on site in my view as they will want to (a) hit the target of a $10m spent in the first 12 months and (b) they are under significant pressure to make this work quickly due to their need for Havieron to support Telfer. They will not want to use their extension time on drill campaigns, they may need that time in the later PFS / BFS stages of the agreement.

Two more points of note:

1. Newcrest signed a massive deal with GGP after just 9 holes at Havieron, only some of which went to the right depth. What does that massive deal after just 9 holes say about Havieron...

2. Newcrest earn nothing, absolutely zip, not a single percent, unless they spend $20m at Havieron. That shows just what a good deal this was for GGP. In the event of success, massive upside. In the event of failure, no solution for expensive drilling; and how desperate were / what a good prospect this was for Newcrest.

There will be noise in the quiet periods. As I say, hopefully we are nearly out of that now. But noise is just noise. Newcrest rate Havieron massively. They are already talking about its massive potential publicly. Why listen to the noise and not to Newcrest? Crazy.

And then there is Black Hills, Scallywag etc etc.

All of which is why I think this a compelling buy. As ever DYOR.

Thanks Tom and similar thoughts re your posts. Of course, whatever the outcome, it doesn't prove one of us right. One can think an outcome is not likely, but that still means it can occur even within our thought process. I may think rolling a 6 with a dice to be unlikely. If I then roll a 6, it doesn't mean that I was wrong in my initial thinking.

Hi seeingtom,

There will be no takeover before FDA approval, that is for sure. If you are hanging your hat on that hook, you will be very much mistaken. You seriously think that a third party company would invest say £250m up front cash before studies were complete and FDA approval obtained? What would be the career of the person doing that deal be if the studies brought further issues / delays or if FDA approval was not obtained shortly thereafter. Terminated. Also, it is far too speculative (if not unlikely) a possibility in the near term, to form any proper investment case.

Partnership, yes that is possible, but why would it involve significant up front funds before FDA approval. That wouldn't make sense from the partner's perspective. A partnership is much more likely once the FDA application is lodged / approved. In any event, unless you know something sensitive that has not been told to the market, how could you as a shareholder possibly rely upon this taking place sooner??

I did not say no near term news. You have misread my post. I stated no core commercial data, until the further studies are complete later this year and the reference to news was in that context. Yes they could come out with further mouse study or spiked blood studies. That may have a temporary impact on the share price, but AGL has been publishing such data for many years now. The only thing that really matters this year / next year is the successful ovarian and breast cancer clinical / analytical studies, which might lead to FDA approval. Look at AGL's market cap. It is priced for commerciality, not early stage non-commercial studies.

As for fetal studies, possible, but ANGLE need around £11m per year. One cannot rely on a fetal deal, but even if struck, it will not generate sufficient funds. They have only done a small scale pilot study. Remember, even much larger clinical studies in ovarian and breast have not yet generated a deal, so why would fetal generate something very large at this stage?

All in all, in my view, only the clinical study results and FDA approval will generate the sort of partnering deals that you are discussing, and we will not get to the next stage of that for several months. Yes, there may be "news" coming out before, but nothing to transform this into a 100p company. Money in AIM is hot. People will chase other dreams first and come back here later in the year. This is a fact that you cannot ignore, because you can see this actually happening in the share price in recent days / weeks.

There is a difference between no need for funding, and AGL is not going to raise. One can choose to raise even if not absolutely necessary at that point in time.

The fact is that that AGL will need to fund raise and it is better to do that soon even if not strictly necessary. Here is my maths:

Cash of £14.9 million in October 2018.

They last raised £12.7m gross in June 2018 and had cash of £7.6m in April 2018. Therefore (including costs of placing) they burned through £5.4m in 6 months.

Assuming a similar burn rate, i.e. running one trial at a time (breast cancer soon to terminate, ovarian cancer soon to commence, with potentially a little overlap offsetting the placing costs that will not reoccur), ANGLE should therefore have cash through to Feb 2020 and will presumably therefore not need to raise funds (absent a deal raising funds) until the second half of 2019.

What they will not want to do is leave it to the last minute. That never gets good terms. Surely it is best to get it out of the way, then there is less pressure on getting the (yet further) studies required for breast cancer done.

Also, they have release the breast and ovarian cancer news. In terms of core commercial data, that is it until the further studies are complete later this year. It is only natural that drift, absent news, occurs, so why not raise funds when they can and, at present, at a small premium to last time.

Crazy prices here. Market cap now £1.36m. They have c£1m in cash. Enterprise value just £360k for a working mine due to move into profitability in H2 this year, and with a new cornerstone investor who have all the technical expertise to achieve this, buying 19% of the company at a higher price than we now currently are.