Member Info for sicilian_kan

Hi Mickey, it's impossible to predict what the buy out will be until we know the number of ounces that will likely be mineable in the block caves.

I prefer to look at investments this way. I like investments with limited downside and large upside. My average here is 1.63p. I do not think it likely that I will lose any money given the progress at GGP - albeit I could afford it if my sizeable investment went to zero.

In short, I just need to hold for value to out. In my view there is clearly more than 3m oz at Havieron, which is the bedrock of the current shareprice at $100/oz. I think this a buy up to 2.5p at the moment, with true value at over 3.1p even taking just 5m oz. I cannot understand the current share price. As further progress is made, my target prices and true values will increase. I do understand where the higher figures from Primorus and others come from, however they are possible figures and not (yet) probable figures. I will now be holding until any buyout takes place / is complete, whatever that price may be and however many oz are in the end proven up.

The $100/oz is the in the ground price. I've already showed this to be reasonable by comparison with say Stratex's 30% sale, in an earlier post today. The recent note from MiningMaven showed that Aus comparators could be valued at over $200/oz, so I am being conservative.

GGP would get many multiples of the $100/oz as profit if they held out through to mining, but then they would have to bear a share of the costs to do so. A costs free buyout at some stage between now and a feasibility study will be the end game. The aim for GGP is to maximise the ozs and the $/oz they get paid for.

Plus offset by the cash generated by the exercise of warrants options etc.

Hi Jerry, yes, you could factor in those too, but then that is likely offset by not factoring in the other assets.

How much would GGP get for Scallywag and their other Paterson assets, say, if selling it on the open market today? They have significant value, probably as much as the options and warrants are worth today.

*and (d) Newcrest's desperation

RTC, you have to factor into the pricing (a) the fact that there is already a processing plant next door massively saving on costs, (b) that this is mining safe Australia, (c) this is a likely Tier 1 asset, and (d)

I was in Stratex. They only had 30% after selling 70% to Centerra in a license deal. Stratex had no processing plant, were in Turkey which is not the best jurisdiction and which is a jurisdiction with a history of permitting delays and problems, they only had 1m oz (in a pipe with good long grades at 2+g/t), although in their favour (and common with GGP) was that Centerra were desperate to replenish their pipeline as their flagship asset was having jurisdictional / political problems.

Stratex sold their residual 30% to Centerra for $82/oz.

I cannot see GGP getting any less than $100/oz given that we are dealing with the much safer Australia, a potential Tier 1 asset, the savings from a processing plant next door etc. Indeed I think we will get considerably more than $100/oz, but I prefer to remain conservative at the moment.

20m oz *30% *$100 / 1.34 (exchange rate) / 3,577,233,658 shares in issue = 12.5p

One can get to 25p if taking $200 / oz

These are at the moment though merely possibilities. What I am certain of though is that a share price of 3.12p is justified at this present moment in time [with the opportunity for massive upside thereafter] and that there is no reason not to test 2.5p again.

With the greatest of respect, 200k shares is peanuts.

GGP is priced at the moment at Havieron having 3m oz at $100/oz. Ignoring all other assets, Scallywag, Paterson East, Firetower etc. Ignoring the potential for more than $100/oz.

I do not know any investor in this share who thinks there is just 3m oz at Havieron, following the last drilling results and the exceptional grades at long step outs.

Even taking a highly conservative 5m oz at $100/oz [and most of us, including Primorus think there is much, much more, ref potential for 20m+ tweet from Primorus yesterday] - we should be valued at 3.12p.

I can see no logical reason for 2.5p not to be tested again in the near future.

I can see absolutely no reason for the share price to be 1.82p and I can see why the share price and the sentiment is on the up.

P.S. The maths is simple. 5m oz x 30% x $100. Then convert into £ sterling [1.34 exchange rate]. Then divide by shares in issue.

Its 1,000m of ore, so down to 1,400m

Thanks paddy

Thanks BTB

So 5 out of 6 drill holes in Newcrest's release hit 6-13g/t over wide intervals.

All 5 were exceptional in terms of gram metres. The best were HAD021 with 989 gram metres and HAD020 with 800 gram metres. Remember anything over 200 is exceptional. These are monster holes.

Take a look at the full results for HAD020 and HAD021. They hit intersections of 579.4m and 396.6m cumulatively. These are just the intervals, not the gram metres. That is over 1/2 a km of width in one hold for HAD020 and at good grades. Looking at the whole hole, HAD021 hit 396.6m at an average of 2.49 g/t gold equivalent. Again, these are monster holes.

Below is an update on my gram metres table. You will see that 15 out of 24 holes are exceptional and 19 out of 24 holes are either exceptional or pretty gosh darn good (new holes marked **):

HAD005 1571.556 (exceptional)
HAD006 1196.7152 (exceptional)
HAD014 1014.378 (exceptional)
**HAD021 989.3252 (exceptional)
HAD017 892.6632 (exceptional)
**HAD020 800.3566 (exceptional)
HAD018 771.4336 (exceptional)
HAD013 685.6064 (exceptional)
HAD012 530.812 (exceptional)
**HAD025 435.9498 (exceptional)
**HAD028 418.3128 (exceptional)
HAD001 395.428 (exceptional)
**HAD023 368.494 (exceptional)
HAD011 245.018 (exceptional)
HAD008 231.552 (exceptional)
HAD015 132.016 (pretty gosh darn good)
HAD007 125.603 (pretty gosh darn good)
HAD003 105.56 (pretty gosh darn good)
HAD009 103.426 (pretty gosh darn good)
HAD004 27.401
HAD002 18.7354
HAD010 0
HAD016 0
**HAD019 0

For those of you who have not seen the background to this email before, I re-post the below:

Keith Barron, who founded Aurelian Resources Inc, which was sold for $1.2bn in 2006, said in 2004 on gram metres, when the gold price was around $420/oz and when major gold discoveries have massively tailed off since then too.

"As a rule-of-thumb many geos look at grammetres as to whether or not a drill result is interesting. Simply put, this is the grade multiplied by the width....An intersection of 10 gram-metres may or may not make it. An intersection of 50 gram-metres is pretty good; of 100 or 200 gram-metres is pretty gosh darn good, and anything higher becomes exceptional."

hTTp://www.straighttalkonmining.com/who-wants-to-be-a-billionaire/

Benlysta's last quarterly sales were £172m.

That is $888m annualised. It has been increasing steadily year on year.

That article is over a year old.

Except it wasn't the first hole. There has been drilling there since 1985.

It's not even Rockfire's first hole. From the RNS "In late 2017, Rockfire Resources plc drilled 11 drill holes for 2,111 m of reverse circulation drilling. This drilling successfully encountered 10 m @ 1.9 g/t Au, 22 m @ 1.86 g/t Au and 10 m @ 1.37 g/t Au. Significant silver was also encountered including 43 m @ 4 g/t Ag."

1m oz per rig

The placing shares can’t be sold. All SVS accounts are frozen and the placing shares (what’s left of them) cannot be traded. See Leonard Curtis’s SVS page.

What could be done is that an SVS holder opens a short to “close” or “hedge” the long holding that cannot be closed at SVS but that would be a huge gamble. If there is a delay in the SVS holdings being returned (presently March), then exposure to a short could create huge liabilities if the short closes before the SVS shares are returned to cover the short exposure. I cannot see any SVS holder sensibly taking that path at this point.

You may have seen my earlier post setting out that anything over 200 gram meters is considered by mining experts to be "exceptional". This is an update on that post with a fresh table of GGP's drill holes, based on Newcrest's data.

The table below showing the gram meters for each of the Havieron drill results, including the recent HAD015 to HAD018.

I note two things for when you do look at the table:

1. HAD017 and HAD018 from the latest drill results are both multiple times exceptional and are their 4th and 5th best drill results to date.

2. More importantly, you will see that 56% (!) of the drill holes at Havieron are classified as "exceptional". That is a staggeringly high percentage, not least as they are now stepping out - e.g. HAD018. 78% (!) of the drill holes are exceptional or pretty gosh darn good. Is it any wonder that GGP has Newcrest drilling with 6 rigs whilst having Havieron in presentation slides as one of their top two upcoming prospects?

Here is the table of gram-metres per hole.

HAD005 1571.556 (exceptional)
HAD006 1196.7152 (exceptional)
HAD014 1014.378 (exceptional)
HAD017 892.6632 (exceptional)
HAD018 771.4336 (exceptional)
HAD013 685.6064 (exceptional)
HAD012 530.812 (exceptional)
HAD001 395.428 (exceptional)
HAD011 245.018 (exceptional)
HAD008 231.552 (exceptional)
HAD015 132.016 (pretty gosh darn good)
HAD007 125.603 (pretty gosh darn good)
HAD003 105.56 (pretty gosh darn good)
HAD009 103.426 (pretty gosh darn good)
HAD004 27.401
HAD002 18.7354
HAD010 0
HAD016 0

So who should I listen to. The armchair warriors on here? Or Newcrest who speak with the drill bit and of the importance of Havieron to Telfer?

FYI, I've used a copper conversion rate of 1.6 which is similar to the one GGP used in 2018.

For those of you who have not seen the background to this email before, I re-post the below:

Keith Barron', who founded Aurelian Resources Inc, which was sold for $1.2bn in 2006, said in 2004 on gram metres, when the gold price was around $420/oz and when major gold discoveries have massively tailed off since then too.

"As a rule-of-thumb many geos look at grammetres as to whether or not a drill result is interesting. Simply put, this is the grade multiplied by the width....An intersection of 10 gram-metres may or may not make it. An intersection of 50 gram-metres is pretty good; of 100 or 200 gram-metres is pretty gosh darn good, and anything higher becomes exceptional."

hTTp://www.straighttalkonmining.com/who-wants-to-be-a-billionaire/

HAD015 - disappointing (best intercept 58m x 0.38% gold and 0.51% copper at over 1,000m depth)
HAD016 - very disappointing (no intercepts)
HAD017 - exceptional (the gold gram metres alone are 783gm, with anything over 200gm being exceptional)
HAD018 - exceptional (the gold gram metres alone are 652gm)